First, it’s great the NCAA opened the door and created a 12-team CFP tournament to decide the national champion in football. It has long been needed.
However, the organization has created an absolute mess that could ruin the 2024 version of the College Football Playoffs. And the sad thing is a simple solution could wipe away these problems.
One problem is the first-round bye setup. Everybody seems to think it’s such a big deal to need one less win to capture the title. But it’s very unlikely all four of the CFP bye teams will win even one game. This is especially true with someone like Boise State sitting in one of those positions.
First-round winners will bring swagger into quarterfinals
But it’s a strong bet the best record for bye teams will be 2-2. And it could be 1-3. Miami likely doesn’t get past the CFP quarterfinals as they stand now, joining Boise State. Also, it’s not a stretch to see Oregon getting clipped by Alabama. Texas and star quarterback Quinn Ewers should be able to handle Ole Miss.
Momentum is a powerful weapon for college football teams, and winning a playoff game will bring tons of it. Think about it for a minute. One campus will be abuzz with excitement over the win. Another campus will be flustered with nerves. How will that play out come kickoff? Turnovers for the nerves, touchdowns for the excitement.
Will there be supreme drama for conference title games?
Another problem is the CFP ranking system and the setup. There are teams across the country who don’t want to play in conference championship games. Imagine that. It’s a very negative thing for college football.
Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin said several coaches have expressed negative feelings about conference title games, according to the Ole Miss Rebels YouTube page.
“They don’t want to be in it,” Kiffin said. “You know, the reward to get a bye versus the risk to get knocked out completely. I mean, that’s a really big risk.”
“I think it has ended up being a very unique situation of all postseason sports, the way that system is set up there. How you could go to (the SEC Championship) and get knocked out (of the CFP)? And if you don’t go (to the SEC Championship), you’re in.”
Although a team like Ole Miss fears a championship game loss could knock it out of the playoffs, could Texas surrender a CFP bye?
Here’s the ugly scenario. Let’s say Texas looks at the bracket and doesn’t like the 8-9 winner matchup. Texas does the math and figures a loss in the SEC title game drops it to the No. 5 or No. 6 seed. That path looks better. So Texas rests its starters in the title game. That’s a very bad look for college football. The idea is to win it all, not just the SEC. So if the best path is eschewing the bye, so be it.
The CFP solution seems obvious
Ok what is that simple solution? Expand to 16 teams for the CFP. Rank the top 12 teams. Give the top four seeds to the Power Four conference champions, regardless of ranking. Spots 5-12 go to the highest-ranked remaining teams. Guarantee two Group of Five spots for Nos. 13-16. If there are two Group of Five teams ranked in the top 12, the last four spots become at-large bids. Then play 1 vs. 16, 2 vs. 15, etc …
In this scenario, the Power Four title games matter because you get a lesser first-round opponent.
Make the title game important, and get rid of first-round byes. Settle it more on the field than in the committee board room. Yes, it’s true the first year can be used as a learning experience. However, let’s hope this same problem doesn’t still exist three or four years from now.
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