There is no argument that the AFC Divisional Round Playoff Game this week will feature the best two quarterbacks of our generation with elite gunslinger Josh Allen with the Buffalo Bills and magnificent improviser Patrick Mahomes with the Kansas City Chiefs. Both players are incredibly dynamic and bring a laundry list of talents that make things difficult on opposing defenses. When you have such a textbook clash of titans, it usually comes down to which supporting cast plays better and there will be no exception this weekend.
Comparison of the Bills’ and Chiefs’ Elite Quarterbacks
While there has been a long debate over the past several seasons, there is little argument that this season, Allen has been the more elite quarterback. Allen defeated Mahomes in every important category this year except for interceptions and came up just short in quarterback rating due to his turnover struggles. In the fairly significant Pro Football Focus rankings, Allen was the number one quarterback in the league with a score of 91.8 while Mahomes regressed to sixth in the NFL at 87.3. The biggest difference statistically this season has been that Allen has been a monster in the scrambling game this season as evidenced by his 52-yard touchdown run against the Steelers on Monday afternoon.
Regardless of how each quarterback played in the regular season, anything can happen when these two take the field against each other as we look forward to one of the most anticipated matchups of the past several seasons. While both quarterbacks are outstanding players, they each have the exact same flaw as well: when you are as talented as both of these quarterbacks are, you have a tendency to push the boundary of possibility a little too much and end up making silly mistakes. That is why each of these quarterbacks are in the top five in the NFL in interceptions as Allen threw 18 this season to Mahomes 14.
The Battle of Turnovers will be the Most Significant Stat This Weekend
Due to each quarterbacks proclivity to both throw amazing deep touchdown passes as well as turn the ball over to the other team, the true most important position in the game this weekend will be the safety spots. Everyone is talking about the battle of the quarterbacks but the silent throw down between Kansas City safeties Justin Reid and Mike Edwards vs Buffalo safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde will arguably be far more significant. Let’s go through each pair and figure out their strengths and weaknesses.
The most obvious difference will be age and experience amongst these two teams. Hyde and Poyer are established safeties at ages 33 and 32 respectively with three All-Pro nods between them. They have each made huge plays over the courses of their career but they have certainly lost a step over the past few seasons. According to PFF, Poyer is the slightly better coverage corner with a coverage grade of 72.2 while Hyde comes in at 68.8. Overall, these are an excellent pair of NFL safeties.
As a counter, Kansas City safeties Reid and Edwards are only 26 and 27 respectively and are in the prime of their careers. They were each on the Super Bowl roster last season but are certainly not as experienced as the pair of Buffalo safeties. Typically neither of these players are considered huge turnover machines but they have put in solid coverage all season long. According to PFF, Edwards is the stronger coverage corner with a coverage score of 60.1 while Reid has struggled this season with a score of 52.9. Scores don’t mean everything though as the two young safeties have dramatically improved as the season has gone along.
Once you look at both of the sets in profile view, it becomes apparent that Buffalo has the advantage in pretty much every category but age. Poyer and Hyde have been elite safeties over the course of their NFL career and they are more capable of making a big interception with the game on the line. It is always possible that Mahomes will hit a wide receiver on one of their rare mistakes but based on the analysis, Buffalo will win the game with the elite insurance coverage over the top.
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