Every season, there are teams that exceed expectations and teams that fall short. It’s the beauty of college football – the uncertainty of a 12-game slate (unless you’re Alabama – then there is plenty of certainty). Big Ten teams like Michigan, Michigan State, and Minnesota exceeded expectations in 2021. After the shortened 2020 covid season, nobody anticipated Jim Harbaugh getting the monkey off his back to win a B10 title, let alone claiming a berth in the CFB playoff. No one expected Mel Tucker to go 11-2 in just his first FULL season in East Lansing. Minnesota was a Bowling Green loss away from winning ten games. Even Rutgers turned a small corner, from “absolutely putrid” to “slightly less putrid”, winning 5 games and earning an *asktrik* bowl bid. However, there were a few teams in the conference who had a lackluster 2021 season. Some of them were expected, some not. Lets take a look at the most likely Big Ten teams to surprise some people or rebound in 2022.
Nebraska Cornhuskers
It’s year five of the Scott Frost era in Lincoln, and the seat has never been warmer for him. It’s now or never and delivering wins this season is a must. Nebraska finished 3-9 a year ago; however, eight of the nine losses were within a single score. The 9th (loss to Ohio State) was by nine points, a short two-score game. They were on the cusp, hanging with every team on their schedule. However, they were notorious for making mistakes late in games. Adrian Martinez is moving on to Kansas State, and there will be a new signal caller for the Huskers. Casey Thompson transferred to Nebraska in January, bringing with him almost a full-year under his belt as a starting QB. He started for the Texas Longhorns in 2021 from week 3 on, tossing for 2,113 yards, 24 touchdowns, and only 9 interceptions. He will be expected to come in and instantly upgrade the offense with the absence Martinez left.
Nebraska also returns some playmakers and experience defensively. Luke Reimer and Nick Henrich lead the linebacking corps, both accounting for 100+ tackles a year ago. The defensive success will be predicated on the development of a young defensive line and a young secondary, anchored by star cornerback Quinton Newsome.
Conclusion
The most notable reason for the expected bounce back is the favorable schedule. A year ago they saw Ohio State and Michigan State, which are now replaced with Indiana and Rutgers as divisional cross-over games. If they can get by Northwestern in Week 0 (played in Dublin, favored by -12.5 as of now), they will have a strong chance to start 3-0 and even 5-1. With the quarterback intrigue, a new offensive coordinator, experienced playmakers on defense returning, and a favorable schedule, there is a real chance that Nebraska wins seven or eight games this year.
Maryland Terrapins
There is a buzz surrounding the Terrapin football program, as they saw seven wins (7-6) for the first time since 2014, and a bowl birth for the first time since 2016. Maryland started strong last year, winning their first four games before hitting a conference gauntlet in October. Even with the tough schedule, they still managed sevens. Most notably, a 30-24 win over West Virginia to start the season set the tone for their hot start. They closed the season just as well as they started it, knocking off another Virginia team (V-Tech) 54-10 in the Pinstripe Bowl.
Maryland still saw their fair share of struggles, primarily on the defensive side. Their defense ranked 98th in PPG allowed, and 99th against the pass nationally. However, the buzz and excitement stems from the offense – in particular, one guy. Taulia Tagovailoa – Tua’s younger brother. Tagovailoa threw for over 3,800 yards and 26 touchdowns last season, in a pass-heavy offense. Those two stats were Maryland single-season records, along with a 69% pass completion, which also was a school record. OC Dan Enos came on board last year and really developed Taulia the right way. Many expect Taulia to take an even larger step forward this year, which could propel him into the top tier of Big Ten quarterbacks, alongside C.J. Stroud and others.
In addition to the stardom at quarterback, Maryland has a copious amount of weapons. Receivers Rakim Jarret (62 catches, 829 yards and 5 TD’s last year), and Dontay Demus Jr. (returning from an ACL injury) are the two headliners at receiver. Jacob Copeland will also land in the starting lineup, transferring from Florida. Copeland was Florida’s leading receiver a year ago. At running back, Maryland has options, but don’t be surprised to see freshman Ramon Brown take the reigns as the season develops.
Conclusion
Overall, Maryland is in an intriguing spot heading into the season. Coming off a successful season (by Maryland standards), they look to repeat and sustain that success. They should be able to start off 2-0 before a home showdown against SMU. Then conference play picks up and they instantly play Michigan and Michigan State, followed by Purdue. Then it eases up a bit with Indiana and Northwestern, before they end up with a tough three game finish. With the experience of the offense paired with Taulia’s skill at the QB spot, seven wins is not out of the picture again. I think their ceiling is eight wins, and their floor is five. Missing out on a bowl game this season would be a major disappointment.
Illinois Fighting Illini
It’s year two of the Bret Bielema era in Champaign, and there is a ton for Illini fans to be optimistic about. Illinois gets to showcase their team earlier than most, as they are slated to play Wyoming on August 27th. Illinois has the fortune of playing on the softer side of the Big Ten, giving them a chance to compete for the division sooner. The Illini surprised some people in 2021, winning five games which included an upset win in Week 0 against Nebraska, at Penn State, and at Minnesota. Those are three marquee wins for a program just trying to get on the right track.
Illinois returns one of the Big Ten’s best running backs in Chase Brown. Brown ran for over 1,000 yards a year ago, and that was while splitting reps with teammate Josh McCray. Brown is expected to be the bell cow this year, giving Illinois some dependability on offense. Quarterback is a concern, per usual, but transfer Tommy DeVito (Syracuse) is expected to come in and lead the charge. DeVito brings a lot of experience, starting two full seasons at Syracuse. He finished his Orange career throwing for over 3,800 yards and 28 touchdowns. Accuracy is a worry with Devito, posting a career throwing percentage of 58%.
Illinois also brings back plenty of weapons at the skill positions in addition to a legitimate star at tight end. Luke Ford turned down a chance at the NFL to come back and play for the Illini one more season. He is one of the top tight ends in the conference and even in the nation. Another big offseason move that should benefit the offense is the signing of UTSA offensive coordinator Barry Lunney Jr. Lunney is expected to come in and instantly improve the offensive tempo, running an offense with more pace.
Defensively, Illinois was above average a year ago and held their own in most key games. Expect much of the same this season. They return some key contributors at linebacker and almost their entire secondary. If they can find some new talent on the defensive line, they should see a sustained defensive performance in 2022.
Conclusion
Illinois was one win removed from a bowl berth in 2021. They lost four games by a single score or less. They were right on the cusp of breaking through a year ago. If DeVito can show consistency in running the offense, and Brown stays healthy behind him, it isn’t far-fetched to believe this team can win six or seven this season. The schedule is tough, starting off with three sneaky opponents in Wyoming, Indiana, and Virginia. Illinois will likely have to upset one or two teams this year to get to that 6-7 win mark, but knowing they were so close to accomplishing that just a year ago should give Illini fans some hope. With Bielema’s pedigree and his devote focus on improving the offense, Illinois is on my list of teams to surprise in the Big Ten this season.
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