Top college football prospect Arch Manning has not been a full-time starter for Texas until 2025, but he has a good reason to enter the 2026 NFL Draft after the upcoming season.
The five-star recruit from New Orleans, Louisiana, sat behind Quinn Ewers for two seasons at Texas, watching Ewers lead the Longhorns to two College Football Playoff semifinal appearances.
Manning did get some starting time in 2024 when Ewers missed for an oblique injury. He wound up throwing for 939 yards, nine touchdowns, and two interceptions and added another 108 yards and four touchdowns on the ground. He was used sparingly for certain packages throughout the season so Texas could use his mobility.
Ewers’ decision to return to Texas in 2024 was costly. He didn’t look like his usual self because he chose to play through his injury. He still threw for 3,472 yards, 31 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions.
Texas Longhorns QB Quinn Ewers was projected to be a 1st-round pick
But NFL GMs dinged Ewers for his performance last season. He was expected to be a first-round pick in April’s draft before leading Texas to the CFP in 2024.
Via Pro Football Focus’ “too early” mock draft from last April (they had Ewers going to the Dallas Cowboys at No. 25):
“Dak Prescott is in the final year of his contract, and all indications are that he’ll play this season without an extension. While still relatively raw, Ewers has a high ceiling and posted an 85.6 passing grade this past season. Jerry Jones finds his quarterback of the future and keeps Ewers in the Lonestar State, where he was born and raised.”
Things took a big turn in a year.
The Miami Dolphins selected Ewers with the No. 231 pick (seventh round). And Manning needs to pay attention after seeing Ewers and Shedeur Sanders have incredible tumbles in the draft this year.
Arch Manning needs to learn from Ewers…again
Per Spotrac, the No. 25 pick is set to sign a four-year contract valued at $17 million. Ewers is now set to sign a four-year deal worth about $4.3 million, making about 25% of what he would have made at PFF’s preseason projection. (Ewers was also rumored to be in the running for $8 million if he returned to college in 2025.)
Manning would be smart to jeopardize his NFL career and bank account by returning to Texas if he’s a lock to be a first-round pick in 2026. Should he have a Heisman Trophy-caliber season, Manning’s best choice is to flee to the league instead of earning the mark of being a two-year starter in college.
There’s a chance Manning could sustain an injury if he stays with the Longhorns in 2026, and that could hurt his prospects in the 2027 draft. As he saw from learning under Ewers, it isn’t worth it.
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