Arch Manning may be the most talked-about quarterback in college football, but he isn’t projected as the No. 1 pick in Todd McShay’s first 2026 NFL mock draft. Despite strong interest from NFL teams eager to build around him, McShay placed another prospect at the top. While Manning is already earning through NIL deals and doesn’t need to wait for a pro paycheck, all eyes remain on where he’ll eventually land in the draft.
According to The McShay Show, Todd McShay doesn’t expect Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning to enter the 2026 NFL Draft at all. Instead, he believes Manning is more likely to declare in 2027, giving him more time to develop with the Longhorns and solidify his standing as a top quarterback prospect.
“We talked to a lot of different scouts throughout the process, and you’re always like yeah, next year. I mean, we’re already into those wide receivers in 2027, man. Arch Manning in 2027. I should mention Arch Manning is not in this. Nico Iamaleava is not in this. I fully believe they both will be in the 2027 draft. If that changes, we’ll adjust with it,” said McShay during his show.
Arch Manning might declare for the 2027 NFL Draft
Arch Manning isn’t in a hurry to leave college football — and for good reason. As the highest-valued NIL athlete in the sport, earning an estimated $6.5 million, he’s already cashing in. In Todd McShay’s early 2026 NFL mock draft, Manning was a surprising omission from the first round. Instead, McShay projected LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier to go No. 1 overall to the New York Jets. He pegged both Manning and UCLA transfer Nico Iamaleava as top prospects for the 2027 draft class.
Along with Nussmeier, McShay had three other quarterbacks selected in the top 10: South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers, Clemson’s Cade Klubnik, and Penn State’s Drew Allar. Despite all the hype, Manning may not be a guaranteed first-round pick in the 2026 draft.
For one, Manning has yet to serve as a full-time starter in college. However, his initial performances have been promising. With Quinn Ewers sidelined due to injury last September, Manning passed for 583 yards, four touchdowns, and two interceptions in victories over Louisiana-Monroe and Mississippi State.
Nussmeier, on the other hand, had an impressive 2024 season after stepping in for Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels. He threw for 4,052 yards, 29 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions across 13 starts.
Arch Manning will face high expectations for the 2025 college season. Pro Football Focus ranks him as the No. 2 prospect for next year’s draft, should he decide to declare.
