When you think of College Football Championships, odds are the first team that comes to mind is Alabama. Much of that, of course, is due to their recent domination in the sport, winning six National Championships in the past 15 years.
The Crimson Tide have appeared in the College Football Playoff eight of the ten years while it was a four-team playoff. With this dominance and data, one would assume they would be a shoo-in for the 12-team playoff.
Yet, they are favored not to make it.
FanDuel Not Loving Alabama Football
FanDuel released their “odds to make the 12-team CFP,” and there are currently six teams who are favored to make the Playoff at odds better than -100, which is considered the mark for 50/50. Those teams are:
- Ohio State (-650)
- Georgia (-600)
- Oregon (-300)
- Texas (-200)
- Notre Dame (-165)
- Penn State (-145)
- Ole Miss (-130)
First, it is crazy in itself that seven teams are more likely to make the Playoff than miss it. In a league with 134 teams, for there to be seven teams with odds greater than 50% to make the Playoff says a lot about where college football is as a sport with NIL and the transfer portal.
The next huge observation is that Alabama is missing from the list. The Crimson Tide comes in at +100, which essentially comes out to a 50/50 shot, but anytime there is a (+) next to a team, the odds are at most 49.99% to happen.
Again, we are dealing with a 12-team Playoff, not a 4-team playoff. What does this mean?
Is the SEC Super Loaded, or is Alabama Falling?
Winning a National Championship is hard. Even in Tuscaloosa, it isn’t guaranteed. But there is some kind of assumption that Alabama wins championships every year. In reality, the Tide hasn’t won since 2020, which was the COVID season. Before that, it was 2017.
Whether you view the Covid season as legitimate or not is your choice; the fact remains the same: Alabama has only won one National Championship in the last six seasons. Despite always being at the top, they have struggled actually to finish the season as the number one team.
Could this mean Alabama isn’t the team we all think it is? Or perhaps they have been given more credit than they deserve after their dominant run from 2009 to 2017, which saw them win five National Championships in nine years. The short answer is no. They have still been to the Playoff for three of the last four years, which is not an easy task.
Instead, it may be that the SEC has caught up to Alabama. This makes sense, considering that NIL is limited, meaning the top ten players are less likely to end up at the same school. This year, Texas, LSU, Georgia, Missouri, Ole Miss, and Tennessee could end up ranked in the Top 10. Of course, this can’t realistically happen since these teams will play each other, leading to some teams getting multiple losses, but there is a very real path for each of these teams to make it.
The College Football Playoff only has seven at-large spots and the SEC can’t take all of those spots. Realistically, three at-large spots could go to the SEC, but will Alabama be one of those teams? That is where the 50/50 comes from.
