Alabama’s 2024 regular season was filled with many highs and lows. There have been moments where the Crimson Tide looked like one of the best teams in the country. However, there have also been times where Alabama has played like a shell of their usual selves. When all was said and done, the Tide finished off the regular season with a 9-3 record—their worst record through 12 games since 2010. This will be the second time in the last three seasons that Alabama will not be playing in the SEC Championship game, leaving them with nothing to do this weekend but watch and wait.
Alabama’s Current Playoff Chances
Alabama’s odds to make the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff field are a lot better than they could have hoped after suffering an embarrassing 24-3 loss against unranked Oklahoma less than two weeks ago. The losses of Miami and Clemson during this past Saturday’s slate of games has reopened the door for Kalen DeBoer’s team to slide back into a playoff spot. Their chances were further boosted after Tuesday’s College Football Playoff rankings were released.
Over the past week or so, Alabama’s playoff odds had fluctuated between the range of 25-50 percent. After the reveal of this week’s rankings which saw the Crimson Tide slot in as the 11th-best team in the country, their odds have skyrocketed to around 80 percent or as high as -400 for some oddsmakers. More important than where Alabama was ranked was the fact that they were ahead of the likes of Miami, South Carolina, Ole Miss, and Clemson.
The favorable positioning makes it likely that Alabama will be included in the College Football Playoff field no matter what happens in the Conference Championship games. If SMU were to beat Clemson then all conversations would be over and Alabama would be locked into a playoff spot—most likely the 11th seed. If Clemson wins, there will be some conversations as to whether a 2-loss SMU is more deserving than a 3-loss Alabama. The committee’s weekend will become a bit more complicated if they are forced to make that decision.
The Case For Alabama
Numerous fans and sports personalities alike have suggested the potential presence of SEC bias in the committee’s rankings, primarily because of 3-loss Alabama being ranked ahead of 2-loss Miami. Most notably, Miami QB Cam Ward called out the CFP committee and even went as far as to say that ACC defenses are superior to SEC defenses. We can imagine that the uproar towards the committee will only escalate if Alabama ends up taking the spot of a 2-loss SMU.
With that being said, it’s hard to argue that Alabama is not currently a better team than both SMU and Miami. Neither ACC team has a win against a top-25 team this season, while Alabama has three (No. 5 Georgia, No. 14 South Carolina, and No. 19 Missouri). Realistically, if the Crimson Tide were to play either of those teams right now, oddsmakers would favor them to win, and likely by a decent margin. The CFP has continually shown that they prefer to put the “better” team over the supposed “deserving” team.
For now, Alabama has done all they can to impress upon the CFP committee. We will find out on Sunday morning whether or not it is enough to earn a playoff spot.
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