One of the first trades of the NFL offseason that went down was Cleveland trading for wide receiver Jerry Jeudy. The former Denver wideout was shipped to the state of Ohio on March 9 and gets a new beginning after spending his first four seasons with the Broncos. The DraftKings Sportsbook has set the over/under for Jeudy’s receving touchdown prop at 3.5 with the over at +100. Meaning, if you bet $100 on Jeudy to catch over that number of touchdowns, you’d double your money.
Why Jerry Jeudy to have over 3.5 touchdowns is a good prop bet
Jerry Jeudy has played with six quarterbacks since he was drafted by Denver in 2020. The quarterbacks list includes Drew Lock, Teddy Bridgewater and of course Russell Wilson, who started 30 games for the Broncos over the last two seasons and most recently signed with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Jeudy hasn’t had consistent quarterback play in his first four seasons with Denver but gets a rejuvenated feel to his career in Cleveland after they sent a fifth and sixth-rounder to the Broncos in early March.
The 2020 first-round pick out of Alabama caught two touchdowns and hauled in 54 receptions for 758 yards last season. It was a down yea, however, considering he had 67 receptions, 972 receiving yards and six touchdowns in 2022. But Jeudy should beef up the Browns wide receiver core that was ranked 22nd in the league by Lineups.com earlier this year.
Browns WR touchdown stats in 2023
- Amari Cooper: 5 touchdowns
- David Bell: 3 touchdowns
- Elijah Moore: 2 touchdowns
- Cedric Tillman: 0 touchdowns
- Donovan Peoples-Jones: 0 touchdowns (traded to Detroit last season)
- Marquise Goodwin: 0 touchdowns
Amari Cooper is Cleveland’s best wideout and finished with five scores last season, which was the most at that position. David Bell, a 2022 third-round pick out of Purdue was second in receiving touchdowns with three. Only three wide receivers caught at least one touchdown for Kevin Stefanski’s offense a year ago. So, if the Browns get consistent quarterback play, Jeudy could be a weapon for Deshaun Watson and company.
Watson wrapped up his second year with Cleveland last season but has only played 12 games in two years for the team. In 2023, Watson sustained a rotator cuff injury in Week 3, returned in Week 7 only to reaggravate it again and was finally shut down for the season after Cleveland’s 33-31 win over Baltimore in Week 10.
Watson has thrown 14 touchdowns since joining Cleveland while half of those scores were to different pass catchers, so he likes to spread the ball around, which is good for a new receiver coming in like Jeudy. Jeudy is still very young at only 24-years-old, so betting on a guy that’s getting a change of scenery is a smart idea in my mind. This is a guy that hauled in 10 or more touchdowns in each of his final two years at Alabama and six touchdowns with Denver just two seasons ago. I don’t think we’ve seen the best from Jeudy in the NFL yet but Cleveland and Stefanski could certainly bring it out of him.
It’s a low risk, high reward play for the Browns because usually those low round draft picks don’t often make the team’s opening day roster. So, getting a guy that has excellent acceleration and speed that desperately needed a change of scenery is worth it. Jeudy’s shown that he can catch touchdowns but now he must do it consistently. So, with this line being at 3.5 and at plus money if you take the over, I think it’s a very strong prop bet for this upcoming NFL season.
Odds provided by via DraftKings Sportsbook.