With Training Camps underway and the inaugural preseason game today, it’s starting to feel like football season. And that means thousands of micro-communities are preparing to reconvene for their own annual holiday: the fantasy draft.
The pressurized fun is looming and surely any fantasy player wants to be able to show off their gems on their way to winning their fantasy league. Through training camp reports and analyzing team depth situations, here are five rookies that could be the gem you’re hoping to find and three rookies that will prove to be fool’s gold by season’s end.
(A quick note: the list is arranged by the players’ respective Yahoo ranking to give an idea of the relative value proposition.)
5 Rookies to Add
Kenneth Walker – RB – Seahawks – Yahoo Rank: 90
Walker and Breece Hall were the unequivocal top two running backs coming into the draft. Hall had the great body of work at Iowa State but Walker had the better 2021 season at Michigan State, winning the Doak Walker Award. But it’s not so much about what these guys did in college, it’s about their situations in the NFL.
For Walker, the Seahawks will be pairing him with Rashaad Penny in the backfield. And while Penny is coming off a career year, there’s no doubt that Walker will get plenty of touches as Pete Carroll has stated numerous times that they want to get back to be running focused offense. More importantly, Walker has been very impressive in the early portion of Seahawks camp. He’s shown off better than expected pass catching ability, a huge boon for him in PPR leagues.
Considering Walker’s rank places him with other rotational backs (way lower than Hall, who is ranked 31) his value is off the charts given his upside.
Drake London – WR – Falcons – Yahoo Rank: 115
This is no major revelation, London was considered the best receiver in the draft in most circles. But his rank is just ridiculously low. London and Bryan Edwards will be the top two wide receivers on this team, although Kyle Pitts will be the top target.
London has far more talent than Edwards and has also been a standout in camp. He may trend too far upwards, cause he’s just way too obvious of a pick with the potential he has. If he stays in the 90-120 range, he has tremendous value.
Lastly, it’s important to compare London to his rookie peers. London is clearly a top option on his team, but the same just can’t be said for other top picks. Garrett Wilson will be joining Corey Davis and Elijah Moore in New York. Chris Olave (who has been impressive) is still behind two prolific catchers in Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry. Jameson Williams is still facing injury (but definitely has long term value). And Jahan Dotson is behind Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel in Washington.
The real challenger to London is Treylon Burks, who may also be used in the running game. Still, London is the top guy without a doubt.
Rachaad White – RB – Buccaneers – Yahoo Rank: 139
Okay, now it’s time for the real fun gems. Tampa Bay running backs have been a boom-or-bust proposition in the last few years. Leonard Fournette had some huge games last year, but made headlines when he showed up out of shape. That’s an opportunity for the versatile White, who had 43 catches last year at Arizona State.
White has reportedly looked terrific in the early practices, although the preseason will tell us more. White brings more speed and agility than any other back the Bucs currently have. He averaged 5.5 yards per carry while rushing for over 1000 yards. White may not be the primary back on day one, but his longterm value is much higher than his ranking at 139.
Brian Robinson – RB – Commanders – Yahoo Rank: 151
It may come as a surprise to have this many rookie running backs, considering the hype around the rookie receiver class. But as we mentioned earlier, the situations for the receivers are just not as crystal clear. Meanwhile, the running backs have been getting some surprising looks in training camp.
Robinson is yet another example of a very interesting situation for a rookie. There was a lot of hype around Antonio Gibson last season, but just wasn’t consistently good running between the tackles and ceded some red zone touches to J.D. McKissic. Unlike Gibson and McKissic, Robinson is a big back and physical runner who thrives between the tackles.
Still, with two established guys ahead of him it didn’t seem like Robinson would have a huge opportunity. But he practiced with the first team in the early practices of training camp. That’s a huge revelation. If Robinson maintains that kind of role heading into the season then he would be a huge steal outside of the top 100 picks.
Wan’Dale Robinson – WR – Giants – Yahoo Rank: 278
Robinson is a fun candidate to round out the list of top fantasy rookies, because he’s an entirely unique situation. Fundamentally, Robinson probably isn’t a good fantasy rookie which is why his ranking is so low on Yahoo. He’s on a team that is loaded with receivers with uneven quarterback play. The Giants have five legitimate targets at receiver, including a player similar to Robinson in last year’s first round pick Kadarius Toney. And Robinson was considered a reach as a second round pick in April’s draft.
But this is the thing about Wan’Dale Robinson: He’s by far the most talked about fantasy rookie. Both reporters and the team seem to agree that Robinson will play a significant role in the offense with plenty of opportunities this fall. While media hype has certainly wrong before, the Giants have touted his role and a failure to deliver would reflect poorly on a new front office and coaching staff. He’s also the only playmaker on the offense that the new staff explicitly added to the team, everyone else is a holdover from the previous regime.
That being said, the Giants offense may still have issues and Robinson could underperform. But the question here is about value. Based on his ranking, he’d go undrafted in fantasy. He’s certainly worth adding to the bench as a late round pick or a priority waiver wire pickup.
3 Rookies to Avoid
Breece Hall – RB – Jets – Yahoo Rank: 31
And we go across the parking lot in East Rutherford from the Giants to the Jets. This is not meant to be so down on Hall, but It’s simply ridiculous that he’s ranked this high. At least relative to Kenneth Walker, Hall doesn’t present significantly more value. What’s worse is most of this based on perception, not even factual reality.
The perception is Hall will be the unquestioned workhorse of the offense, but Michael Carter is another young running back who played well last year as a rookie and will steal some touches. Also strange is the thought process is Hall is playing behind better line than Walker is in Seattle, but the two teams were 27th and 28th in run block win rate last year. One could argue Seattle should be better given the additions they’ve made to their offensive line.
Lastly, it’s just absurd considering the players that Hall is ranked over. He sits above Elijah Mitchell, Cam Akers, Josh Jacobs and Miles Sanders (to name a few). If Hall is available at the same time as Kenneth Walker (somewhere in the 60-90 range) then he’s a good pickup. But there’s no way he should be this high.
James Cook – RB – Bills – Yahoo Rank: 95
Cook is oddly just behind Walker even though he plays in a very crowded backfield. He also plays for a team that is not going to be run heavy, given their star quarterback. Plenty of people are high on Cook since he certainly brings more speed than Devin Singletary or Zack Moss. He should also prove to be a better receiver out of the backfield.
But here’s the thing about Cook: he’s never been anything other than a change of pace back. At Georgia, he had 113 carries last season and only 230 for his career. He’s certainly an electric player, but there’s no reason to believe he would have some massively expanded role based on what we know of him as a player. Part of the reason Cook is getting hype is because of his star older brother, Dalvin. But the two are not similar players at all and the comparison is misguided.
Lastly, the Bills are not down on Devin Singletary. Last season was his first as the lead back and he averaged an impressive 4.6 yards per carry. And of course, he’s ranked ahead of far superior fantasy options like James Robinson and Raheem Mostert.
Cook will take some touches and has upside, but he should be a bench play late in the draft. He is certainly not a player that belongs in the top 100.
George Pickens – WR – Steelers – Yahoo Rank: 207
This is a fun one to end on, because it’s just absurd. Of course, in the 200s it is hard to be over-ranked. But the players around Pickens just make it too absurd to not include him as someone to avoid. Pickens has great upside and certainly has the look of player who will develop into a starter. But right now, there’s no way he should even be in the conversation to get drafted.
The Steelers quarterback situation is an utter disaster. And ahead of Pickens on the depth chart is two well established weapons in Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool (not to mention tight end Pat Freiermuth) who will undoubtedly be ahead of him in targets. Combine those factors and there’s no path for Pickens to ever be worthwhile even as a replacement option, unless there’s an injury.
Pickens has been a favorite of Trubisky so far in camp, but if you read the above link then clearly that doesn’t mean much. As usual, the worst part of his ranking is who he is above: Jahan Dotson, Curtis Samuel, Christian Watson, David Bell and Donovan Peoples-Jones. That’s multiple guys that project higher on their teams’ depth charts than Pickens and have better quarterback play. Pickens will be a guy to target in future years, but not as a rookie.