The AP and Coaches College Football Top 25 polls are out, and some wonder whether the poll represents the Top 25 teams rather than the 25 most prominent brands in the sport. For example, Miami has done nothing to prove that it should be ranked, yet it is ranked 19th in the nation.
Regardless of how the pollsters arrive at the Top 25, it is clear that the Top 25 teams in the preseason are not the same teams at the end of the season.
Nearly 50% of Top 25 Preseason Teams Don’t Finish Ranked
College Football is a unique sport in that the preseason projections often do not match up well with how the final results end up going. Sure, the top five teams are predictable, but the top 25 overall is anyone’s guess. For some context, here are how many teams finished ranked in the Top 25 each year that didn’t start off the season ranked:
- 2023 – 6/25 teams who started ranked didn’t finish ranked (24%)
- 2022 – 16/25 teams who started ranked didn’t finish ranked (64%)
- 2021 – 13/25 teams who started ranked didn’t finish ranked (52%)
In total, over the past three years, 35/75 teams that started the season did not finish ranked, coming out to 47%. For teams ranked 15-25, that number is closer to 70%. This is crazy to think about. Nearly 70% of teams ranked 15-25 in the Top 25 preseason do not finish ranked at the end of the season.
So the question isn’t whether teams outside of the Top 25 will finish ranked; it’s which and how many. And to take it a step further, which teams could be ranked and make the CFP?
1. Texas State
Texas State likely won’t finish ranked in the Top 10 this year, but if there is a G5 that has a clear path to a 13-0 final record, it is Texas State. Not only are they expected to be pretty good, their schedule is about as easy as possible.
The Bobcats play in the Sun Belt, the last conference to still have divisions. This means that Texas State, which plays in the Sun Belt East, a much weaker division than the West, has a very clear pathway. Additionally, in their two cross-divisional games, they avoid James Madison, Coastal Carolina, and Appalachian State from the West, and instead get Old Dominion and Georgia State, the two lowest projected West teams.
Additionally, their P4 game is a HOME game against Arizona State, the worst projected Big 12 team. Whether they are actually a good team or not, a 13-0 season is very possible, and regardless of who they play a 13-0 record would get them ranked, and likely in the Playoff.
2 – Louisville
I almost feel like putting Louisville in this list is cheating since they are the first team out of the rankings, but they are technically still on the outside, and they have a great chance to make the Playoff. The Cardinals have many tough tests, including games against Notre Dame, Miami, and Clemson. Outside of these games, Louisville should be able to run through its schedule, which faces mostly lower-level competition and a very manageable non-conference slate.
If Louisville can go 1-2 in their tough games and hold up in their other games, a 10-2 squad may be enough to make the Playoff. If they go 2-1 in their tough games, they could still drop a head-scratcher and have a strong enough resume to make it.
1 – Colorado
Colorado is going to be a very interesting team this year. Some believe they will go 4-8, while others believe they could go 10-2 or better. The thing with college football is that social media and TV personalities affect and impact the storylines and rankings. The CFP Committee may deny it, but they watch the same TV programs we all watch and see the same tweets. If everyone is talking about Colorado, they will be noticed.
The issue, of course, is that Colorado plays a really tough schedule. It plays five ranked preseason Top 25 teams as well as Nebraska, Colorado State, and FCS powerhouse North Dakota State. On the flip side, their schedule also plays out nicely for a potential 5-0 start with games against NDSU, Nebraska, Colorado State, Baylor, and UCF.
If Colorado gets off to a 5-0 start, Sheduer Sanders will be the Heisman favorite, Coach Prime will be seen as the next Nick Saban, and Colorado will likely be ranked in the Top 10. From there, even if they finish 5-2, and 10-2 overall, there is no way the Buffaloes wouldn’t be ranked in the Top 10 and get an at-large Playoff spot.
Colorado has the 21st ranked overall class
21 total commits (As of right now)
21 is @DeionSanders pic.twitter.com/XXzXSeR5CW
— CJ (@EverythingBuffs) December 17, 2023
