Hey all and welcome to my Week 9 GPP Breakdown! We have only 10 games on this week 9 GPP docket with a measly 2 during the 4 o’clock hour. Yuck. Schedule better @NFL!
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Let’s get into it!
Week 9 GPP Ownership Report
- Joe Mixon – 27.2%
- Travis Etienne – 24.1%
- Josh Jacobs – 23.5%
- DeAndre Hopkins – 20.5%
- Tyreek Hill – 20.2%
- Austin Ekeler – 16.9%
- Rhamondre Stevenson – 16.6%
- Kenneth Walker – 16.5%
- Josh Allen – 16.2%
- Raheem Mostert – 15.4%
- Aaron Jones – 14.9%
- Stefon Diggs – 14.9%
- Tyler Higbee – 14.3%
- Justin Jefferson – 13.5%
- Cooper Kupp – 13.5%
Winning Trends
This past week I reviewed the Milly Maker winners. In 6 of the 8 weeks, the winner stacked his or her QB with one or two pass catchers and had zero run backs from the other side of the game. The exceptions to this were week 2 when Tua plus Waddle and Hill took it down with Marc Andrews on the other side, and week 4 when someone stacked the entire Seahawks v Lions game.
Additionally, one of two things is happening right now. Chalk has been hitting so far this season. Two weeks ago Josh Jacobs was the highest owned player at 45%. You needed to have him in your lineup that day to take down a GPP. Tyreek and Tony Pollard were those players last week as well. This singles one of two things:
Either the general public is getting better at DFS, or the trend should turn around soon.
My Week 9 GPP Stacks
Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets
Josh Allen is carrying some ownership for week 9 GPPs, but it honestly might not be enough. I’ll pair him with one or two of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. I’m also okay with varying this stack up with Isaiah McKenzie, Khalil Shakir, Devin Singletary, and Dawson Knox.
The Jets defense has been decent this season, but Allen is averaging 30 DK points a game. There really is no other QB on this slate who has the ceiling that he has. The Bills want to pass, Allen can use his legs as well, and he just had is worst fantasy outing of the season last week. I don’t expect Allen to repeat that. Again, I am aware the Jets defense has been decent this season, limiting many QBs, but they did give up 275 yards and 3 TDs to Burrow, as well as 213 yards and 3 TDs to Lamar. The Bills have the best offense on the week 9 GPP slate, exposure is a must.
If you did want to run this back, then Garrett Wilson makes sense. Ty Conklin feels like chasing, but he is TE6 on the season thus far. Elijah Moore and Braxton Berrios remain unowned.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Atlanta Falcons
Justin Herbert and the Chargers are going up against a secondary with both of its top CBs out. The Falcons also continue to roll out Isaiah Oliver, who sucks, in the slot. The Falcons are 3rd worst vs QBs, 2nd worst vs WRs, and 8th worst vs TEs. Two weeks ago the Falcons let Joe Burrow become the GPP optimal QB, and last week they let PJ Walker look like a starting and potential all-star NFL QB. It wouldn’t shock me to see the Falcons allow Herbert to be the optimal week 9 GPP QB.
There are problems with this play though. Herbert and the Chargers have not been consistent this season, and they are going to be without Mike Williams and likely Keenan Allen. The stacking options for week 9 GPPs with the Chargers are now Ekeler, Josh Palmer, Gerald Everett, Deandre Carter, and something named Michael Brandy (who might have ownership). Carter popped up on the Friday injury report with an illness, so monitor that as well. Donald Parham is also going to miss, can Tre McKitty be a thing again? The Chargers also bleed points to RBs, which might make it nice to have a returning Cordarelle Patterson on the other side.
Carolina Panthers @ Cincinnati Bengals
First off, “Cincinnati” is always a city whose name I have to spell like 5 times before I figure it out.
Second, check out what the Bengals are dealing with in their secondary:
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- Chidobe Awuzie is OUT with a knee injury.
- Mike Hilton is likely OUT with a finger issue.
- Tre Flowers has a hamstring injury and hasn’t been practicing.
- Eli Apple will likely play but he’s been dealing with a hamstring problem.
I actually think DJ Moore will have more ownership than the 10.7% I currently have him at for week 9 GPPs, but I like him nonetheless. I also like Terrace Marshall here too, in fact, I like more as I have believed for some time that he has legitimate NFL talent. PJ Walker & Co. found their grove against the Falcons last week, and if the game script goes the right way, it could happen again. Chuba Hubbard isn’t going to play, so D’Onta Foreman looks in line for another big role.
On the other side I am likely fading Joe Mixon due to his ownership. I’ll play Burrow with Higgins, Boyd, Hurst, and maybe even some Mike Thomas. Panthers CB Jaycee Horn has been limited with an ankle injury, and both CB Donte Jackson and SS Juston Burris are likely to miss. It would be nice to have a Ja’Marr Chase at our disposal, but them’s the breaks. The Bengals have now had two weeks to prepare schemes without Chase. Joe Burrow is looking at sub 10% ownership for week 9 GPPs.
Where I am not Going in Week 9 GPPs
- If you go by the “public is getting better at DFS” theory, then it makes sense that some ownership is gravitating to Aaron Rodgers (10%) and Romeo Doubs (10%) in week 9 GPPs as people are realizing that the Lions secondary is not good. In fact, HC Dan Campbell just fired DB Coach Aubrey Pleasant when everyone else was paying attention to all the trades last Tuesday. I just can’t do it based off what I have seen from the Pack though. Allen Lazard might return, and I do believe in Doubs’ talent. As such I will include Lazard, Doubs and Tonyan (good leverage play by the way) in my player pool. The Lions are also awful against the run, so I understand the ownership that Aaron Jones is carrying this week. LT Bakhtiari is unlikely to play, and he is a huge factor in the success of the Packers’ O-line.
- I get that the Raiders have been awful against the QB this season. The Jaguars, however, have not so subtly announced their every intention of running the rock with Travis Etienne. While I do believe that a better passing day may be in store for Lawrence, the prospect of him putting up week 9 GPP wining DraftKings points seems low. Additionally, the Raiders are 6th worst against RBs, so I expect more Etienne this week. In fact, consider Etienne one of my week 9 GPP one-offs…
Week 9 GPP One-Offs
- I’m having a real difficult time not seeing how Bill Bellichick doesn’t just stack the box and force Ehlinger to throw. Billy Boy feasts on rookie QBs. Oh, and Jonathan Taylor may miss this game.
- Kenneth Walker has a TD in 4 straight games and smashed in this matchup in Week 6. I’m not going to stack this game up as it behooves Seattle not to get into a shootout here. The Cards are also still dealing with multiple injuries along their offensive line.
- Josh Jacobs’ usage has been elite and the Jaguars are the 8th worst team against RBs. I’m not expecting a 3 TD outing like he had agains the Texans, but I’m also not expecting a 7.4 DK outing again either.
- I think that the Dolphins @ Bears game is going to be a little more competitive than many care to think. That being said, one of Raheem Mostert, Tyreek, or Waddle are likely to have a decent day here. The Bears are the 4th worst team vs RBs.
- I’ll fault no one for playing Deandre Hopkins right now. In the last two weeks he’s gotten 13.5 targets per game and now faces two rookie CBs.
- Devante Adams looks like the lowest owned WR in the top salary tier. I have a hard time seeing him having only one catch again.
- Dalvin Cook might be the leverage play in the top tier salary of RBs.
- Jamaal Williams has no week 9 GPP ownership. D’Andre Swift has been on the injury report this week and the Lions should us that they are not ready to give him a full complement of snaps, including goal line work. Revenge game narrative also in play here. The Packers have a few linebacker injuries that will make this an easier matchup for the Lions ground game.
- Terry McLaurin is going too low owned again considering who is now throwing him the ball.
- Brady and Co. are nearly forgotten. One of them could still have a big day, and the Bucs defense looks like it will carry some ownership this weekend, potentially being one of the top two. Cade Otton will once again serve as the primary TE with Brate OUT.
- Deon Jackson is gathering some ownership as we head into the weekend, but again, I don’t see how Bellichick doesn’t dare Ehlinger to try and beat them.
Thanks for checking out my Week 9 GPP breakdown. Good luck in your Week 9 GPP contests!
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