If you look at the San Francisco 49ers initial 53-man roster over the past seven years that Kyle Shanahan has been the head coach, there are some rather consistent themes. One of those themes is balance between the offensive and the defensive side of the ball. Last year was Shanahan’s most unbalanced roster make-up, with 27 players on offense and 23 players on defense. This is the second year in a row there have been more offensive players making the initial 53-man roster with 26 offensive and 24 defensive players in 2022.
The only other two years the offensive side of the ball made up more than half the roster were 2019 and 2020, with 2018 being a complete balance of 25 and 25. That leaves only twice Shanahan has had fewer offensive players than defensive, with his initial year of 2017 and 2021 being the outliers. This tells us that there is a good chance that this year’s initial 53-man roster will be more offensive heavy than defensive, with the most common roster under Shanahan being 26 offensive players and 24 defensive players, so a swing back towards that is likely.
There have been some other tendencies; Shanahan kept a total of ten wide receivers and running backs (excluding the fullback position) each year he has been the coach of the 49ers, except his first year when he kept nine. Four of the seven years he’s kept three quarterbacks. He’s been tight end-heavy compared to the rest of the league, opting to keep four tight ends three times, with never keeping less than three.
On the defensive side of the ball, he has kept nine defensive backs four of the seven years, while carrying ten the other three years. They’ve never kept more than six linebackers, besides his first year when they kept eight. The defensive line is a constant fluctuation ranging anywhere between eight to eleven. Nine has been the most consistent number with three seasons, but it has been eight twice, including last year.
With these tendencies, this season’s draft picks and free-agent focuses, as well as some educated guesses at some possible adjustments to the team’s philosophies, here is a ridiculously early prediction at the 49ers’ initial 53-man roster.
A San Francisco 49ers Initial 53-Man Roster Projection
QB (3): Brock Purdy, Joshua Dobbs, Brandon Allen
This is the easiest position group to predict, as Purdy is locked in as the 49ers starter after leading them to the Super Bowl while having one of the team’s best season long performances of all time. Dobbs was brought in to be a more consistent backup in case the worst happens and Purdy goes down with an injury.
This is a stronger backup plan than a year ago when they overpaid Sam Darnold to hold the clipboard. This will be Allen’s second season with the team, and some thought he would be a cheap number two before Dobbs was brought in. He will provide consistency in case the absolute worst happens.
RB (4) / FB (1): Christian McCaffrey, Elijah Mitchell, Isaac Guerendo, Jordan Mason, Kyle Juszczyk
McCaffery is the top running back in the NFL. No questions asked. He will receive 90% of the snap count out of this group barring an injury. It could be really easy to say the 49ers only carry three running backs, with the team either trading Mitchell to a team needing a starter or a more capable RB2, or cutting Mason and hoping that he makes it through waivers. Guerendo is probably a lock for the roster.
Why would they keep all four if McCaffery is going to receive 90% of the snaps? Well Shanahan and general manager John Lynch like to plan for the future, and with Mitchell’s injury history, he might not be stable enough of a backup to not keep a fourth, and Guerendo has a really good chance of being the 49ers kick-off return man. Each of these four running backs also possesses very different skill sets, allowing Shanahan to game plan as he wants if McCaffery actually gets more rest this season.
Juszczyk is the best fullback in the league, took a pay cut to stay with the team, and is a big part of what makes this offense work. He will be on the roster until he retires.
WR (7): Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, Jauan Jennings, Ricky Pearsall, Jacob Cowing, Ronnie Bell, Trent Taylor
This is one of the largest deviation from the Shanahan Lynch previous 53-man rosters. They’ve carried six wide receivers every season but two. In 2022 they carried five (but had five running backs), and in 2019, they carried seven (with only three running backs). So putting seven wide receivers and four running backs breaks the 49ers trend of carrying a total of ten. There are reasons for this deviation though.
First of all, Aiyuk, Samuel, Jennings, and Pearsall are all locks. This could be the final season in red and gold for two of those four though. With the Aiyuk contract saga continuing, and Samuel possibly being the odd man out of the all-pro caliber two-some, and Jennings on a one year contract, the 49ers could have a majorly reimagined wide receiver room in 2025.
What does that have to do with 2024?
Well, continuity is something that Shanahan and Lynch strive for, and they can not afford to have a large drop due to wide receiver turnover. Cowing may not get a lot of playing time this season, but he could be a starting wide receiver come 2025. You don’t risk losing a player who is possibly that important to the future to the waiver wire. Ronnie Bell hasn’t done much of anything yet, but still makes the team as an important special teams player.
The hardest choice in this group was Trent Taylor or Chris Conley. I went with Taylor because his path to a valuable slot receiver role is more obvious than Conley’s, plus he has the ability to return punts.
TE (2): George Kittle, Cameron Latu
Joseph Maiorana/USA TODAY Sports
This is the other large deviation from Shanahan’s history as a roster creator. Why would he only keep two when he has kept four almost half the time. I think we could see Pearsall take over some of the tight end routes leaving KIttle and Juszczyk picking up the blocking slack. Pearsall has been compared to Travis Kelce, and could have been drafted to lower Kittle’s usage, not to replace Aiyuk, Samuel, or Jennings.
Keeping just two tight ends on the active roster allows them to hold onto players at the offensive line and wide receiver spots who might be lost to the waiver wire before being added to the practice squad if cut. Also, after trying to find a TE2 to combine with Kittle for half a decade now and failing, Shanahan may be willing to move to a more wide-receiver-heavy roster and offense.
OL (9): Trent Williams, Aaron Banks, Jake Brendel, Jon Feliciano, Colton McKivitz, Jaylon Moore, Dominick Puni, Spencer Burford, Chris Hubbard
The 49ers return their top six offensive lineman, seven if you include Moore. The team has attempted to keep continuity and longevity alive with their offensive line since Shanahan took over. The recent signing of Hubbard after the rookie minicamp tells me they are maybe not as impressed with Jarrett Kingston as they were on draft day, pushing him off the initial 53-man roster.
Puni and Buford give depth on the interior while Moore and Hubbard give depth at the bookends. The only hole here is at the backup center position, but nearly this whole group provides flexibility with the ability to line up in multiple spots.
DL (8): Nick Bosa, Leonard Floyd, Maliek Collins, Javon Hargrave, Drake Jackson, Yetur Gross-Matos, Robert Beal, Jr., Kevin Givens
By adding three veterans in the off-season (Floyd, Gross-Matos, and Collins) and letting go of long time starter Arik Armstead, the 49ers have nearly completely redone their defensive line group. They are led by Bosa of course, but he will be surrounded by a group who he hasn’t played alongside for more than one season. Floyd was a great signing, but the loss of Armstead might be great.
It isn’t time to give up on Jackson yet, a third year edge rusher who the 49ers spent a second round draft pick on. Givens returns to the 49ers where he has had the most success in his career, and Beal Jr. has nearly cracked the level of important back-up. Hargrave will need to step up his game in 2024 to make up for the loss of Armstead.
This is not as deep of a group as the 49ers have had in the past, but still should have the players available to dominate most offensive lines.
LB (6): Fred Warner, De’Vondre Campbell, Dee Winters, Curtis Robinson, Demetrius Flanningan-Fowles, Tatum Bethune, Dre Greenlaw*
This group comes with an asterisk, because I have six players stated, but seven listed. Greenlaw will make the 53-man roster, but then immediately be moved to the PUP list and miss the first four to six games. I expect Robinson to take his place. Warner and Campbell are locks to start, with Flannigan-Fowles as a likely rotational piece or even third starter until Greenlaw can be medically cleared.
Winters was brought in last season through the draft and provides good special teams value and possibly be a rotational piece. The word is that the 49ers are very high on seventh round draft pick Bethune, seeing some similar qualities to Dre Greenlaw. This continues to be a strong group for the 49ers, and the best linebacker room in the NFL if Greenlaw can return from his Super Bowl injury.
CB (6): Charvarius Ward, Deommondore Lenoir, Renardo Green, Rock Ya-Sin, Isaac Yiadom, Ambry Thomas
It seems like every year the 49ers have a solid CB1, and a huge drop off after that. This year, that isn’t the case with Ward and Lenoir likely returning starters. The only thing that would change that is if Green proves himself and pushes Lenoir inside. Either way, the 49ers look to be sitting good at CB1 and CB2.
The cornerback room, like the defensive line room, saw a lot of change with the addition of Green in the draft while Ya-Sin and Yiadom were added in free agency. Ya-Sin is probably a depth piece, but Yiadom could push to start in the slot. Thomas, once seen as the future CB2 could come out of training camp anywhere from CB2 to not making the roster. Such is the life of a corner on Shanahan’s roster.
S (4): Talanoa Hufanga, Ji’Ayir Brown, Malik Mustapha, George Odum
Next to quarterback, this group is the next most obvious, with Hufanga’s return from injury being the only question mark. If he is healthy, Hufanga and Brown should start, with Odum and rookie Mustapha taking up the reserve roles. Five of the last six years the 49ers have started with four safeties, with the outlier being 2019 when Jimmie Ward was listed as a corner.
There isn’t a lot of talent behind these four currently on the roster, so the 49ers either need to add another in free agency if they aren’t happy with this group or hope for the best.
Specialist (3): Jake Moody (K), Mitch Wishnowsky (P), Taybor Pepper (3)
These three are a lock to make the team barring some type of training camp or preseason injury. Moody played to mixed reviews last year as a rookie, Wishnowsky is one of the better punters in the NFL, and Peppers has been the stalwart at long snapper for half a decade now.
Practice Squad:
As a bonus, these are the players who I have making their practice squad, something much harder to predict, since they will most likely add a couple players currently on another team’s 90 man roster.
QB: Tanner Mordecai
RB: Someone on another team’s roster most of us have never heard of before
WR: Terique Owens, Chris Conley, Tay Martin
TE: Eric Saubert
OL: Cory Luciano, Jarrett Kingston, Drake Nugent
DL: Alex Barrett, Kalia Davis
LB: Ezekiel Turner
DB: Samuel Womack III, Jaylon Mahoney, Chase Lucas, Taylor Hawkins
