Even though the pain still stings that the Patriots will not be in the playoffs this year, I choose to focus on next season and not on the peaks and valleys of this season. Although there are many things that need to be fixed for the New England Patriots to become a championship contending, free agency can expedite the process.
Free agency can be seen as making improvements to your team but also your team can also be slashed and gashed by other teams poaching your homegrown and acquired talent. With the Patriots having 19 free agents this offseason, there will be a push to try to resign some players but how many will test the waters of free agency?
Two Longtime Patriots Possibly Retiring
Two of New England’s longtime Captains, Devin McCourty and Matthew Slater could end up retiring this offseason. Although they both talked about their careers and what it means to be a professional football player, they both mentioned that you cannot play the game forever.
Both players signed a one-year extension to stay in New England. McCourty had a very productive year leading this young Patriots defense. He had 71 tackles and four interceptions while Slater did his thing on special teams, likely making his sixth All-Pro. Slater has the most All-Pros for a non-kicker or returner.
Who’s Testing The Market
I don’t think the Patriots would like to set a number for most of their free agents, especially ones who may be demanding a raise after their contract expired. Jonathan Jones, Jakobi Meyers, Isaiah Wynn, and Damien Harris are all players who I think they should let test the market and then see if the Patriots will match or have the best offer. I would love to keep them all if it were for the right price.
Jones had a career year in 2022 posting his most interception, forced fumbles, and snaps while having his second most tackled. After being injured for most of the 2021 season his bounce-back year, in a contract year nonetheless, was something that the Patriots defense surely need as he was a key contributor. Although this season’s stat line for him is higher than normal it is not like he had an All-Pro campaign.
Based on his stats he is projected in the same area as Darius Slay, Bradley Roby, Stephon Gilmore, and James Bradberry.
JONATHAN JONES PUNCHES THE BALL OUT AND DEVIN MCCOURTY RECOVERS IT! pic.twitter.com/qhAxZBQOh6
— BennyGIFs (@BennyGIFs) January 8, 2023
The average salary out of that group is around 12.5 million which would be a little over a third of the money the Patriots spend at that position. New England has spent money at that position before, Darrell Revis and Stephon Gilmore, but they were defensive player of the year candidates at the time and Jones is not in that class. If his number comes down below 8.5, I could see him returning to New England.
Jakobi Meyers is interesting as he is probably a top-three wide receiver, statistically, in this free-agent class. The only free agent to have more yards and catches was Juju Smith-Schuster and in touchdowns, it was Juwan Johnson. Many teams will be pursuing Meyers but his projected cap hit (SpotTrac) would be about 12.5 million, which is more than the Patriots would have spent on a receiver in quite some time to keep a receiver.
Jakobi Meyers remains the most underrated receiver in the league. pic.twitter.com/jFuIiPzdbu
— Dave Kluge (@DaveKluge) January 8, 2023
In comparison, Julian Edleman made 7.8 million in 2017 due to incentives of 11 million in 2019 after he won Superbowl MVP. Meyers would be likely to leave due to the money but if the Patriots want to keep one of Mac Jones’ favorite targets around to help his development, then keeping Meyers would be a wise choice. Meyers is PFF’s top receiver in free agency.
Isaiah Wynn would be someone who I would keep but it would have to be for a lot less than he made before. He led the NFL in penalties before going on IR. When healthy, and not committing false starts and holdings, Wynn is a capable tackle. I say this as someone who Wynn could murder, but he has been on a decline since his first season in the league. Looking at a projected six-year deal at 15.4 million a year, a hit of 92 million over the deal guaranteed. The Patriots will likely look to upgrade at the tackle position through the draft.
Damien Harris is the most fascinating of this group. I believe he will test the market but will eventually find his way back to New England. After having three seasons of productivity when healthy, Harris’ injury-plagued season may cause his cap hit to dip a little bit. With similar production to James Connor and Leonard Fournette, his cap hit could be around seven million. Harris did say in his post game interview that he would love to stay in New England.
Impending free agent Damien Harris on whether he wants to return to the Patriots:
"If they want to have me, I'd love to be back." pic.twitter.com/xhK0OikAHT
— Dakota Randall (@DakRandallNESN) January 8, 2023
So, if a base calculated value (factors age, production, market trends, and linear regression) of a contract would be assessed to keep him in New England the price would be about 6.5 million AAV over three years. I would do this mainly because his production has not decreased at all, his stats due to injury and the emergence of Rhamondre Stevenson. Harris has the tools to be a bell cow in the NFL, which we saw in 2021, and with Stevenson and himself this could be one of the best running-back duos in football for the next few years.
I will continue to break down off-season topics and thoughts over the next few weeks regarding the Patriots. Tomorrow’s offseason topic will be improving the coaching staff heading into next season.
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