As we enter Week 14 of the NFL season, 11 teams have eight losses, and none of these teams will make the playoffs. This was expected for teams like the Patriots, Panthers or Titans. For other teams like the Bengals, Jets, and Bears, expectations were much higher. Obviously, their fans are not happy with how the season has unfolded. Once you are out of playoff contention, it’s time to turn your attention to the NFL Draft. If you are a fan of one of these 11 teams, should you want to finish the season on a strong note? Or would you prefer to lose as many games as possible and pick higher in the draft?
Draft Lottery
The NFL is the only one of the four major sports that doesn’t have a draft lottery. The NBA and NHL have been doing a lottery for years. MLB started implementing a draft lottery in 2023. The idea of a lottery is to prevent a team from “tanking” in order to pick higher in the draft. Each of these professional leagues wants every team to continue to try to win until the end of the season whether they have a losing record or not. For example, if you have the worst record in baseball, you only have a 22.45% chance to get the first overall draft pick.
Having a lottery could motivate teams to try to win late in a season. If ping pong balls decide the draft order, why not play to win? As this article from 2023 points out, coaches will pull veterans and play younger guys when they have nothing to play for. These teams can claim they want to give the younger players more experience. More than likely, they want to ensure they lose these games and get a higher draft pick. You don’t just pick higher in the first round. You pick higher in all seven rounds.
New York Giants
Last season the Giants finished 6-11 and picked sixth in the draft. They won four of their last seven games taking away any chance of landing a top-three pick. Recently released Daniel Jones struggled, and quarterback was an obvious need. If you watched Hard Knocks Offseason, you saw that general manager Joe Schoen was interested in quarterbacks Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye. Those two players would go 2nd and 3rd overall in the draft and the Schoen wasn’t able to move up for either player. Daniels and Maye have had impressive rookie seasons, and the Giants are still looking for QB. If they had “tanked,” it’s likely one of those players would be a Giant.
Past Examples
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If you go all the way back to 2006, many people around the league thought the Texans were tanking to draft USC star running back Reggie Bush. The Texans did end up with the first pick but wisely chose edge rusher Mario Williams instead. In 2012, the term “Lose for Luck” referred to the fact that teams may have been trying to lose to select Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck. With Peyton Manning out for the season with a neck injury, the Colts won only one game and selected Luck first in the draft (Luck would surprisingly retire in 2019 at age 29).
Lose For Arch
I bring this draft up for a reason. In 2026 Texas quarterback Arch Manning will be draft-eligible. Although he is not the starter for the Longhorns (he should be), Manning is already the favorite to go first overall whenever he decides to leave school. Arch is the grandson of Archie Manning and the nephew of both Peyton and Eli. Arch is more mobile and athletic than any of the Mannings. He has all the tools you are looking for in a franchise QB, and his upside is off the charts. If I am the owner of a franchise and the team starts 1-7 or maybe 2-9, I am telling the coach to find a way to “tank.” A talent like Arch can completely change the trajectory of your franchise. Just look at what Peyton did for the Colts, and what Tom Brady did for the Patriots.
It’s possible Arch Manning won’t enter the draft in 2026. Both of his uncles stayed in college for four years, and it’s not like his family needs the money. What could happen is a full-on 2025 “tankathon” by several teams to try to secure the first overall pick. Just in case Arch leaves school early. The last thing the NFL wants is 4 to 6 teams purposely losing games late in the season just to pick higher in the draft. If we get “Lose For Arch” next season, I expect there to be a big push for an NFL lottery.
Final Thoughts
I think the NFL should enact a draft lottery. A great spot for it would be the last day of the combine. It will be an event that most fans will tune in to see. Plus, there will be so much speculation about which player each team will take if they can move up in the draft order. Let the first four picks be decided by ping pong balls. Even if you are the worst team in the NFL, at worst you are guaranteed the fifth pick if not selected by the lottery. If you tanked, you don’t necessarily pick first, but you still get to pick in the top five. If Arch Manning plays up to his potential, the “tankathon” could be one of the biggest stories in football during the 2025 season.
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