The window opened on January 6, and each NFL team has until May 1 to determine whether to exercise or decline the fully guaranteed 5th-year options for first-round picks from the 2022 NFL Draft class for the 2026 season. The values are based on four unique tiers: basic, playtime, one Pro Bowl, or multiple Pro Bowl selections. Over The Cap goes through each tier in detail and a projected value for each player.
Today, we will focus on picks 17-24.
Also Read: NFL 5th-Year Option Predictions for the 2022 NFL Draft Class: Picks 1-8, NFL 5th-Year Option Predictions for the 2022 NFL Draft Class: Picks 9-16
17th Pick: Los Angeles Chargers LG (OL) Zion Johnson: $18,427,000
Johnson had a decent rookie season, playing well in the running game but struggling in pass protection. He allowed 40 pressures, 28 hurries, seven QB hits, and five sacks while posting a 52.6 pass blocking, a 69.5 run blocking, and a 64.8 overall PFF grade in 17 starts.
Johnson switched from right guard to left guard in his second season but struggled with the transition. He allowed 33 pressures, 22 hurries, seven QB hits, and four sacks while posting a 58.8 pass blocking, a 57.2 run blocking, and a 57.6 overall PFF grade in 15 starts. He missed the last two games with a neck injury.
Johnson had a solid third season and had his best year as a pro. He allowed 33 pressures, 15 hurries, 13 QB hits, and five sacks while posting a 63.6 pass blocking, a 64.8 run blocking, and a 65.7 overall PFF grade in 17 starts.
PREDICTION: Los Angeles DECLINES his 5th-year option because although Johnson has been a solid starter over the past three seasons, he has not exceeded expectations, and a $18.427 million fully guaranteed salary is a lot of money for a player who is good but not great. However, he could, instead, sign a long-term contract extension rather than giving him a fully guaranteed salary.
18th: Tennessee Titans WR Treylon Burks: $15,161,000
Burks had a solid rookie season but missed a significant amount of time with two injuries. He caught 33 passes on 54 targets for 444 yards and one touchdown in 11 games and six starts. He missed four games (Weeks 5-9) with turf toe and two (Weeks 14 and 15) with a concussion.
Burks had a disappointing second season and missed a significant amount of time with two injuries. He caught 16 passes on 30 targets for 221 yards in 11 games and nine starts. He missed three games (Weeks 4-7) with a knee sprain and three (Weeks 10-12) with a concussion, the second of his NFL career.
Burks third season was cut short due to injury. He caught four passes on eight targets for 34 yards in five games and two starts. He missed the final 12 games with a partially torn ACL.
PREDICTION: Tennessee DECLINES his 5th-year option because Burks has not lived up to the first-round pick and has battled many injuries throughout his first three years in the league.
19th Pick: New Orleans Saints RT (OL) Trevor Penning: $17,412,000
Penning had an uneventful rookie season after missing the first 11 games with turf toe. He allowed two pressures, one hurry, and one QB hit while posting a 38.7 pass blocking, an 80.2 run blocking, and a 73.6 overall PFF grade in six games and one start. He suffered a Lisfranc injury in the regular-season finale.
Penning had a disappointing second season and quickly lost the starting left tackle job. He allowed 19 pressures, 12 hurries, three QB hits, and four sacks while posting a 60.8 pass blocking, a 49.0 run blocking, and a 53.6 overall PFF grade in 17 games and five starts. The Saints benched him after Week 5.
Penning switched from left tackle to right tackle in his third season, improving and showing signs of growth in the running game but struggled in pass protection. He allowed 54 pressures, 45 hurries, four QB hits, and five sacks while posting a 51.6 pass blocking, a 70.1 run blocking, and a 60.2 overall PFF grade in 17 starts.
PREDICTION: New Orleans DECLINES his 5th-year option because Penning has not lived up to the first-round pick and the expectation of being their starting left tackle of the future.
20th Pick: Philadelphia Eagles QB Kenny Pickett: $20,688,000
Pickett had a decent rookie season and eventually became the starting quarterback after opening the year as the backup. He completed 245 out of 389 pass attempts for 2,404 yards, seven touchdowns, and nine interceptions, with a 7-5 record in 13 games and 12 starts. He took over as the starting quarterback in Week 5.
Pickett had a disappointing second season and later lost the starting job after missing some time with injury. He completed 201 out of 324 pass attempts for 2,070 yards, six touchdowns, and four interceptions with a 7-5 record in 12 starts. He missed four games (Weeks 14-17) with a high-ankle sprain and later lost the starting job to Mason Rudolph.
The Steelers traded Pickett to the Eagles during the offseason in his third season, and he spent most of the year as the backup but did appear in five games. He completed 25 out of 42 pass attempts for 291 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception, with a 1-0 record in one start.
PREDICTION: Philadelphia DECLINES his 5th-year option because Pickett has not lived up to the first-round pick, and a $20.688 million fully guaranteed salary is a lot of money for a backup quarterback.
21st Pick: Kansas City Chiefs CB Trent McDuffie: $12,724,000
McDuffie had a solid rookie season after missing earlier in the year due to injury. He recorded 44 tackles and seven pass deflections, allowing 27 receptions on 51 targets for 253 yards, three touchdowns, and an 86.5 passer rating in 11 starts, along with 15 tackles and three pass deflections in the postseason. He missed six games (Weeks 2-8) with a hamstring injury.
McDuffie broke out in his second season, earning himself his first First-Team All-Pro selection. He recorded 80 tackles and seven pass deflections, allowing 50 receptions on 76 targets for 524 yards, two touchdowns, and a 94.4 passer rating in 16 starts. He also had 12 tackles and seven pass deflections in the postseason.
McDuffie had a great third season, boasting career-highs in interceptions and pass deflections. He recorded 59 tackles, two interceptions, and 13 pass deflections, allowing 54 receptions on 90 targets for 545 yards, four touchdowns, and an 82.9 passer rating in 16 starts. He also had 13 tackles and three pass deflections.
PREDICTION: Kansas City EXERCISES his 5th-year option because McDuffie has developed into one of the league’s top cornerbacks.
22nd Pick: Green Bay Packers LB Quay Walker: $16,060,000
Walker had a decent rookie season and played well rushing the passer and in coverage, but struggled against the run, primarily on quarterback-designed runs. He recorded 121 tackles, five TFLs, 41 stops, 12 pressures, 1.5 sacks, seven pass deflections, three forced fumbles, a 70.8 coverage, a 70.3 pass rush, a 35.1 run defense, and a 52.0 overall PFF grade in 17 games and 16 starts. He was also ejected twice for shoving a practice squad player on the Bills and for shoving a member of the Lions medical staff.
Walker was inconsistent in his second season, taking a slight step back in production in coverage and rushing the passer, but did show signs of improvement against the run. He recorded 118 tackles, seven TFLs, 43 stops, 16 pressures, 2.5 sacks, one pick-six, three pass deflections, a 52.6 coverage, a 60.7 pass rush, a 66.8 run defense, and a 60.0 overall PFF grade in 14 starts, along with 20 tackles and one TFL in the postseason. He missed Week 9 and 10 with a groin injury and Week 14 with a shoulder injury.
Walker, once again, dealt with inconsistencies in his third season, struggling in coverage but showing some improvement at rushing the passer and against the run. He recorded 102 tackles, nine TFLs, 31 stops, 14 pressures, 2.5 sacks, two pass deflections, a 48.8 coverage, a 65.5 pass rush, a 67.9 run defense, and a 57.5 overall PFF grade in 13 starts, along with eight tackles in the postseason. He missed Week 8 with a concussion and Weeks 16-18 with an ankle injury.
PREDICTION: Green Bay DECLINES his 5th-year option because Walker has been inconsistent in each of his first three seasons. Due to his inconsistencies, a $16.060 million fully guaranteed salary for 2026 is a lot of money. However, the Packers could choose a different route and sign him to a long-term contract extension instead.
23rd Pick: Buffalo Bills CB Kaiir Elam: $11,728,000
Elam had a decent rookie season and even alternated for a starting job. He recorded 41 tackles, two interceptions, and four pass deflections, allowing 33 receptions on 47 targets for 363 yards, three touchdowns, and a 96.3 passer rating in 13 games and six starts, along with six tackles, one interception, and two pass deflections in the postseason.
Elam had an uneventful second season after being a healthy scratch for the first four games and missing an extended period with an injury. He recorded 14 tackles and allowed ten receptions on 14 targets for 135 yards and a 101.8 passer rating in three games and two starts, along with five tackles, one interception, and one pass deflection in the postseason. He missed the final ten regular-season games with an ankle injury.
Elam had a decent third season, filling as the starting cornerback for a little while. He recorded 26 tackles and two pass deflections, allowing 21 receptions on 30 targets for 240 yards, one touchdown, and a 104.9 passer rating in 13 games and four starts, along with three tackles in the postseason.
PREDICTION: Buffalo DECLINES his 5th-year option because Elam has yet to start for the majority of one season, has been a backup for most of his tenure, and has battled injuries as well.
24th Pick: Dallas Cowboys LG (OL) Tyler Smith: $22,745,000
Smith had a solid rookie season and played two completely different positions. He allowed 39 pressures, 22 hurries, 11 QB hits, and six sacks while posting a 64.2 pass blocking, a 72.4 run blocking, and a 71.4 overall PFF grade in 17 starts-16 at LT and one at LG.
Smith had a great second season after missing the first two games with a hamstring injury, earning himself his first Pro Bowl selection. He allowed 17 hurries, 14 hurries, two QB hits, and one sack while posting a 68.7 pass blocking, a 79.7 run blocking, and a 72.9 overall PFF grade in 14 starts.
Smith had a great third season, earning himself his second Pro Bowl selection. He allowed 22 pressures, 16 hurries, four QB hits, and two sacks while posting a 76.0 pass blocking, a 73.8 run blocking, and a 75.0 overall PFF grade in 16 starts-15 at LG and one at LT.
PREDICTION: Dallas EXERCISES his 5th-year option because Smith has developed into one of the league’s top left guards.
