The NFL’s first expedition into Christmas Day games begins with a high-profile clash between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Pittsburgh Steelers. Unsurprisingly, this game carries tons of weight for both teams as they jostle for advantageous playoff positioning in the crowded AFC standings. Kansas City, despite a 14-1 record, is yet to secure the first seed and home-field advantage throughout the postseason. One more win will clinch that privilege for head coach Andy Reid yet again. The Steelers, while well out of the running for the first seed, still have the AFC North on the line, as last week’s loss to the Baltimore Ravens made the race for the division a significantly closer one. The gravity of this game should lead to an entertaining, competitive contest with plenty of excellent player props to choose from.
1) Kareem Hunt Over 33.5 Yards Rushing (-113)
If the distribution of carries over the last couple of games is any indication, Kareem Hunt has clearly carved out a permanent role in Kansas City’s rushing offense. Hunt out-carried Isiah Pacheco by two against the Houston Texans while splitting carries evenly against the Cleveland Browns. Throughout those touches, Hunt has been far more efficient, averaging 4.2 yards per carry compared to Pacheco’s 2.7. It’s clear that Hunt is around to stay, even if Pacheco continues to be named the starter on the depth chart. Assuming he sees the volume that the Chiefs have given him in the last two games, Hunt would only have to average 3.0 yards per carry to surpass this total.
It’s important to note that the game script should favor Hunt in this matchup. Pittsburgh, while fielding an elite run defense, will likely trail by the time each team heads to the locker room for halftime. This factor should ensure that Hunt receives the volume he needs to crack a remarkably low line for the third time in a row.
2) Harrison Butker Over 7.5 Kicking Points (-118)
This line isn’t as good of a price as the previous bet, but that’s for good reason. While Butker hasn’t been the machine he usually is this season, he’s still been incredibly accurate from inside 50 yards. He’s 18/19 on kicks inside that distance combined with a 27/28 record on extra points throughout the campaign. If Butker is given the opportunity to kick, he will almost certainly come through. The nature of Kansas City’s offense and their opponent ensure that those opportunities will come.
The Chiefs’ offense is not what it once was, and that decline has been particularly noticeable in the red zone. Once one of the best offensive teams in the league when knocking on the end zone door, Kansas City now ranks 26th in the NFL in red zone touchdown percentage, converting only half of their visits into touchdowns. The Steelers have been slightly above-average in keeping opponents out of the end zone on red zone trips, allowing a conversion percentage of only 56%. Kansas City is a good enough offense to get Butker comfortably in range, but they will struggle to finish the job with a touchdown. That should lead to several easy field goal attempts for Butker and a cash on the over.
3) Jaylen Warren Over 18.5 Yards (-113)
Warren is a scary bet in this game, but the line is just too low to pass up. The Chiefs have been excellent against receiving backs this season, allowing the least yardage to them and the third-least targets. However, Warren has been seeing more and more work lately, earning more snaps than fellow running back Najee Harris in each of Pittsburgh’s last two games. His work as a receiver has been his biggest contribution to the offense, as he’s cracked the over on 18.5 yards in six of his last seven outings. A positive game script should allow Warren to see a healthy target share and several run after catch opportunities, any of which could hit the over in a single play.
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