There is much talk about the ‘Power 4′ college football conferences breaking away from the ‘Group of 5’ as the gap between the two grows. No logical person could look at Georgia and Georgia Southern and say they are playing for the same National Title.
Aside from individual donors and interest groups, between media deals and conference-affiliated revenue, Georgia is making more than 100% of its in-state foe’s revenue. When you throw in NIL, forget it. There simply aren’t talented players to even be third-stringers who would consider playing for a school like Georgia Southern.
The same applies to Eastern Michigan, Utah State, North Texas, and Jacksonville State. The gap is widening so much that G5 and P4 can’t remain in the same league.
G5 Schools Historically Have Been Promoted
As conferences expand and realign, historically, it has been G5 teams that elevate and fill in the gaps that an existing team fills. In the last 15 years, the following schools have been promoted from the G5 to a P4 league:
- Utah (Mountain West)
- TCU (Mountain West)
- BYU (Independent)
- UCF (American)
- Cincinnati (American)
- Houston (American)
- SMU (American)
A key central theme has gotten all of these teams promoted: success. Utah, TCU, UCF, Houston, and Cincinnati have all played in and won NY6 Bowl games and had success. BYU and SMU are the two exceptions. BYU is a huge brand and has been successful, with multiple 10-win seasons in the last decade as well as a 1984 National Title, and SMU is a huge brand with huge donors who bought their way into the league.
Interestingly, geography hasn’t seemed to be a deciding factor to this point. However, that could change as conferences are valued more nationwide.
Are Any G5 Teams a Candidate to Join a P4?
With the two groups likely splitting sooner rather than later, G5 schools are scrambling to put themselves in a position to potentially be called up for a conference expansion. If the P4 does split, it may never expand again, especially if all the conferences agree to have a set number of teams.
So does any conference have a chance? That depends on the ACC.
The expansion candidates will immediately become former ACC schools if the ACC dissolves. Very few G5 schools, if any, would have any real chance of being invited. There’s an outside shot a team may reach out to a team like San Diego State to get into the California market, but besides those few longshot expectations, the ACC dismantling would end any real chance.
However, if the ACC can stick together, quite a few G5 schools could get promoted, particularly if the P4 conferences agree to get to 20 teams.
G5 Schools With a Chance
At this point, the best G5 teams have been taken. Very few big teams are left. However, there are still a few, which will be listed below, along with their strongest selling points. Oregon State and Washington State are still a P4 schools.
- San Diego State – San Diego market, historically decent team.
- Tulane – Won a NY6 Bowl against USC
- UNLV – Las Vegas
- Memphis – Huge market, decent team
- Boise State – Feels like the window has passed, but historically one of the best G5 schools of all time.
- UTSA-San Antonio, a newer school already having success
- South Florida – Tampa market
- Army/Navy/Air Force – Military, niche (would likely be a package deal)
Outside of these eight (ten) schools, it doesn’t feel like any G5 school has a real shot at making it to the P4 level. There simply isn’t a pathway for Western Michigan, San Jose State, or Charlotte to make the jump.
