College Football Transfer Portal: How an Opportunity For a Current Player is Nightmare for a High School Recruit

The transfer portal is not just changing how players in college view their own careers and opportunities, it seems that it is starting to affect high school players as well. National Signing Day was February 7th, but you wouldn’t have known it without big names signing with teams.

Instead, most of those players signed in the early signing window back in December. The issue with that is that the transfer portal opens after most high schoolers have already committed, leaving many wondering if they really chose the best school for them.

This is an obvious issue that has been addressed many times, but perhaps there is a bigger issue that isn’t being talked about.

Second-tier Talent Isn’t landing at the Big Schools.

The top high schoolers coming out of high school will always go to the biggest schools, and essentially go wherever they want. But what about every level after that? Why would a team want to take a chance on a low 4-star player who has never played a college snap, when they can go get a G5 player that has excelled and showed they can handle playing at the college level?

While the amount of players being recruited and signed isn’t really dropping, what is dropping is the number of recruits being picked up by P4 teams. In the case of Auburn, a very average SEC school, they only signed 16 players, down from the 24-28 players they typically had in the past. Colorado only signed seven.

To make the math simple, let’s say each P4 team is signing ten fewer players out of high school than they were just five years ago. There are 68 P4 teams, meaning 680 fewer players are signing at the P4 level.

Where Do Players End Up?

For the hundreds of players that would have played at a P4 school, but no longer are, many of these players are now playing P4 football. This is great news for these programs, but for these players, it’s almost like they have to re-evaluate every year to see if they are worthy of a P4 roster spot.

This line continues down the line. Now that there are hundreds of signees who would have signed P4 in the past, some of the regular G5 recruits are now being sent to the FCS level or Division II. At some point, these players are being sent down to a level where either it isn’t worth playing football (versus going to a better school for academics), or they play football but get caught in a position where it is tough to progress and get noticed.

G5 Programs Are Suffering Because of the Transfer Portal

If you are a fan of a G5 team, every year feels like trying to catch lightning in a bottle at this point. On one hand, G5 teams are getting higher-rated recruits than they’ve ever gotten, opening up the opportunity to play very well. On the other hand, the moment a team has a good season, all of their top players are entering the transfer portal and landing at P4 schools.

One example from this year was James Madison. The Dukes had a fantastic season, going 12-1 during the regular season. However, once the season ended, 12 of their 13 transfers left for P4 schools, depleting most of their best talent going into 2024.

On the flip side, many of the P4 transfers are from the kind of players that aren’t getting playing time. Sure, some of these players end up at G5 schools and excel, but the ratio of great talent leaving  G5 vs coming to a G5 significantly favors the players leaving.

What Does This All Mean For High School Players

Unless a player is a 5-star or a very highly rated 4-star, they are going to struggle to find a roster spot on a P4 team in this transfer portal era. Additionally, even if they do find a roster spot, there is a good chance they will get buried down the depth chart as a more experienced transfer comes in.

For many high schoolers, the best option may be to find the best fit and worry less about the name on the jersey. If successful, there will be opportunities to transfer and end up where they want to be.

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