CFP Preview: #8 Ohio State & #5 Texas’ Cotton Bowl Battle
The 2nd CFP semifinal premiers tonight, with #8 Ohio State playing #5 Texas with a chance to face #7 Notre Dame for the national championship a little over a week from today. The Buckeyes are fresh off their unexpected stomping of #1 seed Oregon in last week’s Rose Bowl, while the Longhorns needed two extra periods to fend off a pesky Arizona State team that nearly pulled the upset of the Playoff. Now these two Big Ten teams vie for a spot in the 2025 national championship. Do the Buckeyes get it done yet again or does Texas rebound from last week’s nailbiter in Atlanta?
Why Ohio State Advances to Play For Title 9
Last week’s shelling of top-seeded, previously unbeaten Oregon came in part from superstar freshman WR Jeremiah Smith’s 2 TD performance. If Ohio State continues that, they should be well on their way to the national championship… in Atlanta, where Texas just was. But the reasoning why the Buckeyes will be title game bound comes down to a few things. One, the sheer talent that Smith has, and two, OSU’s dual threat RB tandem of Quinshon Judkins and TreyVeon Henderson. QB Will Howard leads a particularly dangerous Buckeye offense that showed its muscle against Oregon in a long awaited rematch after the Ducks’ narrow 32-31 victory in the regular season.
Ohio State puts up the 6th most points/game in the nation (36.4) while simultaneously allowing the fewest per game (12). Among Playoff teams, that’s only behind Notre Dame, as the Irish put up 37 points/game for 3rd best in the nation and allow the 2nd fewest opponent points/game. This is a statistical matchup made in heaven, and given how Texas is 15th in the country in points/game but 3rd in opponent points per game, some of the Horns’ other offensive team stats rankings put them at a clear disadvantage. There’s a reason the Buckeyes are favored by exactly one touchdown.
Why Texas Takes Down Ohio State
The one saving grace for the Horns in tonight’s game is one specific word- defense. Keeping Ohio State away from the red zone and end zone is crucial, especially for a team that has one of the nation’s top overall defenses. Texas is top 5 in opponent points/game (3rd, 14.5), yards/game (3rd, 278), and most importantly, opponent red zone scoring (#1, 61.5%). A rock-solid defense like that could be all the Horns need to topple Ohio State and advance to play for their first national title since Vince Young’s heroics 20 years ago.
It’s not going to be an easy one for Texas, however. Ohio State breezed through both its prior two CFP games by double digits, while Texas had to fend off Clemson in their first game and narrowly escaped a monster choke job against Arizona State. Clearly, OSU is the better rested and prepared team, and with the show of power against Oregon last week, the Buckeyes will undoubtedly look to remain as hot as ever. Texas better keep its distance.
Prediction: Ohio State 41, Texas 20
Ohio State easily flattens the Longhorns in this one, as there’s just no one that can possibly beat a team with as strong an offensive and defensive combination. Before last week, most thought Oregon was the unstoppable one. But it’s the one and only University that advances through this one. Texas will not be going back to Atlanta unlike the Peach Bowl and SEC championship. Ohio State will play for its 9th national title, and they look to become the first and only team to win the College Football Playoff in two different formats, as they won the inaugural 4-team tournament back in 2014.
The Buckeyes are the only team to appear in four of the last six CFPs — all since Ryan Day became head coach, and Texas remains the SEC’s final hope for a conference that has produced 6 of the last 9 national champions. And for the record, ESPN’s supposed “SEC bias” went out the window last week after the tumultuous Sugar Bowl in New Orleans, where Notre Dame 2nd halved Georgia with a ridiculous end 1st half.
This game will also be notable for the two QBs, OSU’s Will Howard and Texas’ Quinn Ewers, who won Big 12 titles the last time they played in AT&T Stadium. Howard led Kansas State but they had to settle for a 45-20 shelling to Alabama in the Sugar Bowl after higher-ranked and slightly better record TCU made the Playoff over them despite their title game loss. Ewers returns to AT&T Stadium for the first time since he led Texas to a dominant 49-21 Big 12 title over Oklahoma State in 2023, after which the Horns were felled by Washington in the Sugar Bowl Playoff semifinal.
Related: Buckeyes Potentially Land Georgia DB Damon Wilson in Transfer Portal
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