CFP Preview: #2 Georgia Duels #7 Notre Dame in Sensational Sugar Bowl
With the 12-team CFP quarterfinals set to begin today, besides the peculiar matchup of Penn State and Boise State, Georgia, and Notre Dame face each other in a game that has the Dawgs favored by a single point. The Sugar Bowl serves as the host game for this quarterfinal, with the winner facing the winner of Ohio State vs Oregon and Texas vs Arizona State in the Orange Bowl, down in Miami.
The Dawgs get their first major test since the SEC championship, with an interesting situation at QB. Does recent NFL Draft declarer Carson Beck get back under center after sitting out the 2nd half of the SEC title game with an injury? Or does the upstart tough redshirt sophomore Gunner Stockton from the tiny town of Tiger get his first full start? The Dawgs will also be rocking the same red uniforms they had in that title game, which may prove useful against a tough opponent.
How Georgia Pulls Off the Upset
The Dawgs don’t have the best-ranking offense or defense among this year’s CFP teams, ranking 31st in points/game, 45th in yards/game, and 46th in yards/play. Their main offensive strength, however, is their red zone scoring percentage, where they’re 10th best in the country, reaching the end zone roughly 92.5% of the time. Basically, any time Georgia sniffs the end zone after getting inside the opponent’s 20, they get dangerous, and it could be exactly what they need to pull out a solid win.
Speaking of solid, what if Gunner Stockton gets his first career start in this one? The redshirt sophomore signal caller looked considerably better than Carson Beck in the SEC title game, and as far as things went, he wasn’t a turnover machine like Beck was all season. Sure, he’s only got two regular season games under his belt this season against lesser opponents, but when he took a huge hit from a Texas defender only to get right back up, everyone knew he could still deliver.
Stockton is also a solid running QB in addition to his passing, something that Beck didn’t quite have as much talent in. That’s more of a Georgia offensive line problem, however, and that’s a whole nother issue in itself. Whenever Stockton played, he made his passes look good and stick, instead of just carelessly throwing downfield like Beck had to do so many times this season.
How Notre Dame Downs the Dawgs
Despite many thinking that the Irish weren’t even going to be considered for a Playoff spot at all after an early season shocker loss to Northern Illinois at home, Notre Dame has won its remaining schedule despite being the Playoff team with the most thin ice under them. And not only that, but the Irish’s first Playoff contest against in-state Indiana was nothing short of underwhelming. A closer-than-expected 27-17 grind out with QB Riley Leonard throwing for just 200 passing yards and 1 touchdown plus an interception is not the kind of play you’d expect from a 2nd round team.
And yet, the Irish can silence all the doubters in more than one way, with their 2nd in the country ranked points/game numbers (39) and how they allow the 3rd fewest opponent points/game (14) and 6th fewest opponent yards/game (295). In fact, Notre Dame’s defense is top 10 ranked in every major defensive statistic, while Georgia’s defense is more or less around or outside the top 25 in the nation. You can see the obvious advantage here for the Irish. Shutting down the Dawgs’ offense, primarily before they reach the red zone, will be Notre Dame’s top priority.
Prediction: Georgia 27, Notre Dame 20
Despite the Dawgs’ statistical disadvantages and the fact that they have a new starter under center, Georgia still pulls this one out given how they’re better rested than Notre Dame. That first-round bye was crucial, and remember how Notre Dame’s defense is top 10 in the country in most things? They won’t have at least a couple of defensive playmakers available, namely their starting DL man Rylie Mills, who got knocked out of the Indiana contest last week with a knee injury.
Additionally, the Irish’s run defense isn’t as good as their passing defense, as they allow considerable amounts of rushing yards per game (36.3 opponent rushes/game, 71st, 133 opponent rushing yards/game, 35th). Georgia’s run defense is considerably better at 34 opponent rushes/game (40th) and 129 rushing yards/game (32nd). That’s not a ton better, but it is somewhat of a difference.
Related: Was Declaring for the NFL Draft the Right Decision for Carson Beck?
