Returning production can be one of the earliest signs of a team’s success in the Big 12 and college football in general. While this has always been the case, it is particularly true in the era of the transfer portal, where entire teams are reshuffled and almost unrecognizable every year. Often, when a team is made up of entirely new players, one of two things happens:
- The team never gels together and struggles to get into a flow. Take Texas A&M or Colorado from this past season as an example. The raw talent on both teams should have had them with much better records than what they ended up having.
- Teams get off to a slow start. With all new players, it is impossible to duplicate what a game actually feels and looks like. Sometimes, this can lead to early head-scratching losses. Take Oklahoma State or Alabama from last year as examples. Both teams figured it out toward the middle of the season, but the first few weeks were really rough.
Obviously, not everything is dependent on whether a roster is young or old, but as more data comes in, the research shows that having returning production often has a very strong correlation to the success of the team.
For the Big 12, it is a mixed bag of returning talent for each team. Here are a few takeaways.
1. The Transfer Portal has Certainly Changed Things
Last year, there were 17 teams that brought back at least 75% of their overall production; this year, that number is only seven, including Kennesaw State, who is making their first debut season in the FBS. Additionally, only 13 teams last year brought back less than 50% of their production, and that number is up to 37 now.
This shows that more players who are contributors are transferring. Again, this is based on production, not who is the fourth string long snapper.
It is also worth noting that only six of the top 25 schools in returning production are from G5 schools; last year, that number was 13. Yes, this is only one year of data to go off of, but it is interesting that the number of G5 production has dropped so much, suggesting that perhaps the top G5 talent is transferring to P5 schools.
Big 12 returning production heading into 2024.
Data via @ESPN_BillC pic.twitter.com/6VB3LC4CTl
— Justin Apodaca (@JustinApod) February 5, 2024
Despite the Droppoff in Production, Big 12 Still Scores Well
Of the Top 50 schools in returning production, here are how many came from each P4 conference:
- Big 12 – 10 teams out of 16
- ACC – 8 Teams out of 18
- Big 10 – 8 Teams out of 18
- SEC – 5 Teams out of 16
- Entire G5: 19 Teams out of 65
This could be just a coincidence, but it is at least worth noting that the Big 12 has a higher retention rate of talent than any other conference, and it isn’t particularly close. Every other conference besides the SEC has 18 teams.
This means the only conference in college football to have more than 50% of their conference in the Top 50 is the Big 12, suggesting that perhaps players are more loyal to their team and less likely to jump at the first sight of more NIL. Of course, there are other factors that need to be considered, but the statistic is at least worth looking at.
There Aren’t Many Outliers on Offense/Defense in the Big 12
Perhaps the stat that will catch most off guard the most is the lack of outliers between offense and defense. For almost every team, the returning production on both sides of the ball is almost identical, or at least pretty close. For example here are a few teams:
- Iowa State: 90% on offense, 80% on defense
- Colorado: 69% on offense, 76% on defense
- Oklahoma State: 79% on offense, 74% on defense
- Texas Tech: 54% on offense, 50% on defense
There were only two schools that had gaps larger than 15%, UCF, and West Virginia. Again, with only one year of data, there is nothing concrete about this, but it shows that perhaps the Big 12 as a conference is really good at developing talent across different classes, as opposed to leaning heavily into seniors.
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