Arch Manning is set to begin his first season as a full-time starter for the Texas Longhorns football program. At 19, Manning has been on the Longhorns sidelines waiting patiently for two seasons as a backup to Quinn Ewers.
Manning started two games last season while Ewers dealt with an abdominal injury. Texas employed a package to use Manning’s mobility when Ewers returned as a starter.
Following the 2024 season that saw Texas reach the College Football Playoff semifinals, Ewers made the choice to enter the draft rather than return to the Longhorns. Manning will face a similar choice in 2026 when he becomes eligible to enter the draft.
NFL teams warned on Arch Manning’s plan
On Monday, Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated gave his perspective on what Manning is likely to do in 2026. He thinks it’s more than likely that Manning will return to Texas.
“We need to stop talking about Arch Manning like he’s definitely coming out next year,” Breer wrote. “The family’s history indicates he won’t rush to the NFL. Evidence shows quarterbacks have a better shot in the league the more they play in college.
“And Arch himself waited his turn for two years at Texas, in an era when players routinely bolt at the first sign of having to spend time on the bench. I’d be surprised, in the end, if he winds up in the 2026 draft class.”
The clear message to NFL teams from Breer is that no one should be trying to tank for the rising star in the upcoming season, because he might not be on the draft board. Manning, a consensus five-star recruit out of Isidore Newman School in New Orleans, is expected to become the No. 1 pick when he enters the draft.
The Texas Longhorns football QB risks money by staying
At $6.5 million, Manning’s NIL valuation in 2025 is the highest of any college football player by more than $2 million, per On3. Manning won’t hurt for cash if he returns in 2026.
However, like the choice Duke basketball star Cooper Flagg must make this spring, staying in college another year means Manning would postpone the earliest he could sign a contract extension in the NFL, thus hurting his overall career earning potential.
He also risks suffering an injury in college.
Regardless, unlike the years when Caleb Williams and Trevor Lawrence were first eligible, no team can bank on the tank to land the future NFL star.
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