The College Football Playoff will expand to 12 teams this year, but according to ESPN’s Harry Douglas, it will not feature one of football’s bluebloods. In their first season without Nick Saban, since the BCS era ended, Harry Douglas shared the following:
“I would say this, it’s not a guarantee that Alabama’s going to make the College Football Playoff. When I look at the SEC right now, I could name four teams that I could think of before I even get to Alabama.
And that’s Texas, Georgia, Missouri, and Ole Miss.”
SEC is Loaded This Year on the Top
The SEC is the toughest conference in America, at least on top. While they aren’t the deepest conference (Big 12 gets the nod), the top five or seven teams in the league all have a real chance of being ranked in the Top 20 in the nation. Those teams include in no particular order:
- Alabama
- LSU
- Texas
- Georgia
- Ole Miss
- Missouri
- Tennessee
- Texas A&M
There is a real drop-off after these seven teams, but for these seven teams, whether or not they make the CFP will depend on how they do against each other and not dropping any games against teams not on this list. In other words, Georgia can’t afford a loss to Kentucky or Auburn.
Conference Schedule Isn’t Kind to Alabama
One of the advantages (and disadvantages) of being in a massive conference is that schedules can vary greatly between different teams. For example, Florida has to play five of the top seven schools listed above, while Missouri only plays two of the seven. In a hypothetical situation, Florida and Missouri could have the exact same talent, but Missouri may finish 6-2 while Florida goes 3-5.
While the computers may recognize that the two schools are equal, the voters and public opinion will greatly favor the Tigers.
Alabama has a tough schedule that is unfavorable to them making the playoffs, even if they are as talented as a team like Missouri. Some of their games include:
- At Wisconsin (nonconference)
- Georgia
- at Tennessee
- vs Missouri
- at LSU
It’s also worth noting that they have to travel to play at Oklahoma. The Sooners are expected to be in contention this year for the SEC title, but they could still be a tough road test, particularly on November 23rd, when it may be very cold in Norman.
Sure, they avoid Texas A&M and Texas, but one has to wonder whether Alabama would be in the Playoff discussion if they were to go 2-3 in these tough games. The other issue is that besides these five games, the Crimson Tide don’t help themselves with games against Western Kentucky, Mercer, South Florida and Vanderbilt.
In other words, when Alabama plays a big game, it’s A BIG GAME.
ESPN analyst Harry Douglas on Alabama:
“I would say this, it’s not a guarantee that Alabama’s going to make the College Football Playoff. When I look at the SEC right now, I could name four teams that I could think of before I even get to Alabama. And that’s Texas, Georgia,… pic.twitter.com/fITwBzEuJM
— On3 (@On3sports) July 12, 2024
What is Alabama’s Future at the Top of College Football?
Alabama is in a unique spot. On one hand, it is perhaps the best team in football history. On the other, it is in a relatively small market in an area that doesn’t necessarily have the richest donors or sponsors. Right now, Alabama can keep up in the NIL fight, but would it be able to keep up if it has a bad season or two?
It seems crazy, but one has to wonder whether Alabama has what it takes to keep up in today’s college football. Again, it seems crazy, but people may have thought the same thing 100 years ago when Princeton, Cornell, and Yale were running the sport.
Of course, I’m not saying the Crimson Tides are on a path of being irrelevant, but it’s totally possible that five years from now, Alabama truly will consistently be the fifth or sixth-best team in the SEC.
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