Buffalo Bills: Over 12.5 Wins
Despite having the highest projected win total in the entire league, I’m still taking the over with the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo has a very favorable early season schedule with six of their first seven games coming against teams that had a losing record in 2024. A 6-1 or even 7-0 start is entirely feasible, paving the way for Josh Allen and company to have a real shot at finishing as the AFC’s top seed.
New England Patriots: Over 8.5 Wins
New England is arguably the most improved team in the NFL. They had a stellar free agency that saw them add impact players like DT Milton Williams and many others. The Patriots’ 2025 draft class was also among the best in the league. Rookies Will Campbell and TreVeyon Henderson should make an immediate impact at offensive tackle and running back, respectively. Look for Drake Maye to take a big leap in his sophomore season as New England sneaks into the playoffs as a Wild Card team.
Miami Dolphins: Under 7.5 Wins
The Dolphins are a popular pick to underachieve in 2025, and for good reason. Miami has failed to make any serious improvements to their roster, leaving them bound to continue to regress. Their quarterback is injury prone, they don’t play well in cold weather, and they have become increasingly stale and one-dimensional on offense under Mike McDaniel. Realistically, Miami is well behind the Bills and the Patriots in the AFC East.
New York Jets: Under 6.5 Wins
This is one of the easier under picks. The Jets are in the middle of a rebuild yet again, with very little to look forward to in the upcoming season. To make matters even worse, guard Alijah Vera-Tucker is expected to miss the entire 2025 season with a triceps injury. This is a major blow for a team that already has a shaky offensive line. First time head coach Aaron Glenn has his work cut out for him. Take the under with confidence.
Baltimore Ravens: Over 11.5 Wins
In terms of being a team that wins often and consistently, Baltimore is only behind the likes of Kansas City and Philadelphia over the past half decade. The Ravens have a record of 25-9 over the past two regular seasons and Lamar Jackson has a record of 74-29 as a starter in his career, good enough for a .719 winning percentage. The bottom line is that the Ravens win often with Lamar Jackson under center, and I see no reason for that to change anytime soon.
Cincinnati Bengals: Over 9.5 Wins
The Bengals did not make any significant additions during the offseason. This might appear as a cause for concern seeing how the team has missed the postseason in each of the last two seasons. However, seven of Cincinnati’s eight losses last season came by seven points or fewer, and if they had won just one of those games, they would have made the playoffs. As long as they have Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase, they can overcome the organization’s dysfunction and remain in the mix.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Under 8.5 Wins
The Steelers are the second-oldest team in the NFL with an average age of 27.3 years. Many of Pittsburgh’s big offseason acquisitions, such as CB Jalen Ramsey, CB Darius Slay, and TE Jonnu Smith are over 30 years old. They also have the oldest player in the NFL as their starting quarterback. Not unlike what he had in New York, Aaron Rodgers will once again be dealing with a subpar offensive line and a thin receiving corps beyond WR1 DK Metcalf. Pittsburgh could be in line for their first losing season under Mike Tomlin.
Cleveland Browns: Under 5.5 Wins
The Cleveland Browns are bad and they know it. They did not make any moves during the offseason to indicate that they are aiming for success in 2025. Their quarterback situation is uninspiring and the rest of the roster is filled with holes. Cleveland is virtually guaranteed to finish last in the AFC North, making this an obvious under bet.
Houston Texans: Over 9.5 Wins
Houston has the worst offensive line in the NFL according to Pro Football Focus. This comes as no surprise considering that their two best offensive linemen from last season, Laremy Tunsil and Shaq Mason, are no longer on the team. Even still, I’ll slightly edge towards the over for multiple reasons. The Texans remain the best team in the very weak and uncertain AFC South, a factor which grants them a handful of divisional wins by default. Houston also has one of the NFL’s better defenses led by the ferocious pass rushing duo of Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson, as well as 2024 First-team All-Pro cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. leading their defensive backfield.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Over 7.5 Wins
Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars are under a lot of pressure in 2025. Since winning the AFC South in 2022, Jacksonville has missed the playoffs in back-to-back seasons and Lawrence’s play has seemingly regressed. With that being said, all signs seem to point towards the former No. 1 overall pick having a bounce back season. Jacksonville’s new head coach Liam Coen helped Baker Mayfield achieve the best numbers of his career as Tampa Bay’s offensive coordinator last season. He could have a similar impact with Lawrence, who now also has an above average group of receivers to throw to.
Indianapolis Colts: Under 7.5 Wins
Despite having an above average roster and a solid head coach in Shane Steichen, the Colts have one of the worst quarterback rooms in the entire league. The duo of Daniel Jones and Anthony Richardson is outdone only by the Saints’ duo Spencer Rattler and Tyler Shough in terms of futility. The strengths of their roster and coaching should prevent them from being terrible, but I can’t confidently pick them to win eight or more games.
Tennessee Titans: Over 5.5 Wins
The overall expectations for the Tennessee Titans are low, but there’s still a solid chance of them reaching six wins in the weak AFC South. Last season, the Titans were repeatedly held back by the poor, mistake-prone play of Will Levis which ultimately cost them in a handful of close games. Providing that Cam Ward is at least decent, Tennessee should see an improvement in their fortunes.
Kansas City Chiefs: Under 11.5 Wins
Kansas City went 12-0 in one possession games during the 2024 regular season and playoffs. Logic would dictate that the Chiefs won’t be undefeated in close games two years in a row. Kansas City has major questions on the offensive line, a unit which got absolutely demolished by Philadelphia’s defensive front in the Super Bowl. There is also a question mark surrounding the team’s wide receivers, a group that will be without Rashee Rice for the first six games of the season. Obviously the Chiefs are still really good, but it’s not realistic to expect them to go 15-2 again.
Los Angeles Chargers: Under 9.5 Wins
This would have been a resounding over not too long ago; however, the season-ending patellar tendon injury to star OT Rashawn Slater is a devastating blow. Although the Chargers managed to upgrade at running back by drafting Omarion Hampton and signing Najee Harris, their receiving corps still has questions. After Ladd McConkey, this collection of receivers leaves a lot to be desired. As tough as the AFC West is, it could be a rocky second year for Jim Harbaugh in L.A.
Denver Broncos: Over 9.5 Wins
If the Chargers pull back, Denver will most likely be the team to benefit. The Broncos have the best defense in the NFL—one that is led by the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, Patrick Surtain. Denver also has the second-best offensive line in the league according to Pro Football Focus. Furthermore, the Broncos managed to upgrade their running back room by drafting UCF standout RJ Harvey and signing JK Dobbins in free agency. Things look promising in Bo Nix’s second year.
Las Vegas Raiders: Over 6.5 Wins
This number is way too low. Even in the loaded AFC West, there is no reason why the Raiders can’t reach seven or eight wins. Las Vegas has suffered from some of the worst quarterback play in the league since the departure of Derek Carr after the 2022 season; however, bringing in a consistent, reliable veteran in Geno Smith helps to stabilize that position. Furthermore, the team is now significantly better coached under Pete Carroll than it was under the unproven Antonio Pierce. The Raiders can double their win total from 2024.
