Florida State has wanted to leave the ACC for a while now, which is not news. It is news that Clemson is now following the Seminoles after filing a lawsuit against the conference. This feels a lot like the Pac-12 right before it fell apart, which begs the question: When and if the conference falls apart, where will all the teams go?
It all starts with the Big 10.
The Big 10 is Obsessed With AAU Schools
The Big 10 has this odd requirement that teams have to be AAU members even to be considered part of the Big 10 conference. While nothing is technically written that they can only accept AAU schools, they’ve been vocal about that being one of their top priorities when considering conference expansion.
If the Big 10 holds to that standard, Florida State and Clemson are both out of the running. North Carolina would be the one team that the Big 10 would go after, with the other obviously being Notre Dame. Recently, there has been a lot of pressure on the Irish to join a conference following the announcement that the Irish would not be eligible for a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff. That would put the Big 10 at 20 teams.
If the Big 10 looks beyond the AAU accreditation, one has to imagine they would go after Florida State first, and then some kind of combination of Notre Dame, Clemson, and North Carolina. It’s also possible that Texas A&M could be interested in the Big 10 to avoid Texas, and there is a good chance that the Big 10 would want them to give them a footprint in The Lone Star State.
Prediction: The Big 10 has been stubborn about adding non-AAU accredited teams, which will hold true in this next round of realignment. Big 10 will add North Carolina and Notre Dame.
The SEC is Content With Geography
While the Big 10 and Big 12 are essentially coast-to-coast conferences, the SEC has held strong on being the Southereastern Conference. Of all the P4 conferences, they are the only ones that actually make sense to their name (Big 12 has 16 teams, Big 10 has 18, and ACC has Cal/Stanford).
With the assumption that the SEC won’t be going north or out west to expand and assuming that every conference is going to 20 teams, the additions are pretty clear for the first two, but the last two could get a bit tricky. The conference would likely pick up Florida State and Clemson in a heartbeat, but it is anyone’s guess where they’d go after that.
The biggest brand remaining would be Miami, but the SEC would likely not approve of a third Florida team. Duke is a huge basketball brand, but their football would only rival Vanderbilt and Arkansas talent-wise. Louisville is interesting because it would be a second Kentucky school, but even it feels a little too small for the SEC at this point. Finally, Georgia Tech would be another Georgia school with a rich history, but recently, it’s also struggled.
Prediction: I don’t think the SEC will expand to 20 teams immediately. Instead, they will pick up Florida State and Clemson and wait a few years to expand to 20. They know they can get any Big 12 or remaining ACC team they want, whenever they want, so why rush?
Big 12 Won’t be Picky
If the ACC dissolves, the Big 12 conference will be the awkward third wheel in college football. On the one hand, it is still considered P4 (P3?) with many great brands and teams, but it isn’t the Big 10 or SEC. On one hand, it won’t make anywhere near the money that the SEC or Big 10 make, but on the other, it would be making significantly more than any other conference.
If Florida State, North Carolina, and Clemson leave the ACC, the conference will be in a similar scenario to where the Pac 12 was when USC and UCLA announced they were leaving. Things may sit awkwardly for a bit, but eventually, the rest of the conference will crack.
The Big 12 will be ready and will first go after Miami, which would immediately become the biggest name brand in the conference and give UCF a travel partner.
The next team targeted would be NC State, with its big brand. After that, things could get very interesting. Would the Big 12 go after basketball brands with Virginia and Duke? Pitt is a great rival for West Virginia, and Georgia Tech would get into the rich Georgia recruiting market. Or maybe the Big 12 would go for a non-traditional team like UConn to get the Northeast and best college basketball brand in the last decade.
The Big 12 would be the most interesting to watch of all the conferences.
Prediction: Miami and NC State would be added on day one. Following them, the Big 12 may also take a short break to evaluate their options. Ultimately, the conference will go with Pitt and Lousiville and look to add Gonzaga and UConn as basketball-only schools.
What About the ACC?
The ACC sits at 17 schools, including Cal, Stanford, and SMU. The conference may still exist even if the Big 12, Big 10, and SEC take the seven schools. With the losses that were projected before, the conference would still have:
- Boston College
- California
- Duke
- Georgia Tech
- SMU
- Stanford
- Syracuse
- Virginia
- Virginia Tech
- Wake Forest
This group could still survive with the right additions, such as South Florida, a sleeping giant in Tampa or Liberty, which has quickly risen in the FBS level. Of course, Washington State and Oregon State are still sitting out west without a conference.
The ACC would likely no longer be considered a P4, but they could be good enough to maybe get their own single automatic qualifier in the new 16-team proposed playoff.
Predicition: The ACC will not dissolve the way the Pac 12 did. Instead, the conference will add Washington State, Oregon State, South Florida, Liberty, Memphis, and Coastal Carolina or App State. This conference will be good enough for the CFP Committee to give them a single automatic birth in the new playoff.
