Four years ago in Miami, the 49ers and Chiefs squared off in Super Bowl LIV, a game won by Patrick Mahomes to begin his Super Bowl legacy. Fast forward to 2024, and the two teams are matched up once again, this time with a few different faces, including one that pressed the “switch teams” button between then and now.
For the 49ers, Super Bowl LIV was a devastating game. While it did not deter the franchise from the coming success they have enjoyed and continue to enjoy, the loss stands as the lasting image of the 49ers in the big game. It stands as a reminder of failure by Kyle Shanahan, who has a chance to exorcise his Lombardi demons. With less than half of the final quarter remaining, Shanahan and Co. held a ten point lead, only to see it crumble at the hands of Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill.
Now, the Niners have reloaded. In that last Super Bowl matchup, the 49ers did not have half of their current stars. No Brock Purdy, the Mr Irrelevant starting QB who is one win away from a special place in history. No Brandon Aiyuk and Christian McCaffrey, the two biggest juggernauts of this San Fran offense. And of course, no Trent Williams, the standout Left Tackle who was acquired in 2020 from Washington. And that’s just on the offensive side of the ball.
On defense, the Niners have since added All-Pro Cornerback Charvarious Ward, who was on the other team in that February 2020 matchup. On top of that, Chase Young was shipped over at midseason. All of this to say, both of these teams are different. On the other side, there is no Tyreek Hill, and a few other key pieces have been removed and added from that Chiefs team.
With all of this considered, what is the winning formula for the NFC Champions? Clearly, some things worked in LIV, but it crumbled at the end. Having a better signal caller and offensive weapons is any easy thing to point out. At the same time, this Niner defense may be even better than in 2019. They ranked third this season, one spot behind Kansas City, whereas they had the eighth ranked D in 2019. The team’s bread and butter, however, is on offense.
In terms of EPA/Play, the 49ers had the top ranked passing AND rushing offensive attack. Even without a top tier Offensive Line, the Shanahan zone run scheme led to a league high 2,023 scrimmage yards for the likely Offensive Player of the Year. To beat Kansas City, the Niners will have to control the ground game and not try to go tit for tat in the pass game. That was Baltimore’s mistake in the AFC Title Game. The Ravens only handed off the ball eight times, despite a brilliant rushing attack. As a result, the Chiefs were able to defend the pass easier and control the clock on offense.
The number one thing to consider in the Super Bowl is coaching and QB play. While the Chiefs have the edge in both, the Niners can do some things to bridge the gap further. For one, they can replicate what they did for three quarters in Miami, and force turnovers from Mahomes. The two time MVP has yet to turn the football over this postseason, but in SBLIV, he threw two interceptions, one to Fred Warner and one to Tarvarius Moore.
All in all, the path to victory for Purdy and crew is to control the clock with the run game, keeping KC’s offense off of the field. Against the Chiefs, you need to get a lead early. Playing from behind is a death sentence against Andy Reid. Forcing a turnover from Mahomes, combined with these factors, would likely lead to the Niners winning their first Super Bowl in nearly thirty years. Time will tell, as we grow nearer and nearer to the culmination of this NFL season in Las Vegas.
