Zitty’s weekly picks returns with a slew of college and NFL predictions. Week 5 of college football and week 4 of NFL features some juicy matchups. Last week my picks went 3-5 and missed the .500 mark as Clemson missed the cover by one point. We have four college game predictions along with nine NFL games so let’s dive in!
Top 4 College Football Picks – Week 5 (9/29-9/31)
Michigan -11 vs Iowa 12:00pm
Michigan throttled Iowa last year in the Big Ten Championship Game 42-3. I’d stay away from the total of 42.5 and take Michigan to cover the -11 spread. Iowa’s offense has been non-existent, and I think Michigan wins big again. Coming off a non-cover game against Maryland, the Wolverines are still 14-5 against the spread in their last 19 games. Michigan wins 37-16.
Minnesota -12 vs Purdue 12:00pm
Coach Fleck has won and covered each of the past four years against Purdue. Minnesota bodes the number one ranked defense in the country and currently posts a 15-4 record vs the spread in their last 19 games going back to late 2020. Purdue is 2-5 vs the spread in their last seven games as underdogs. Back the Gophers as Minnesota covers 34-13.
Northwestern +25.5 vs Penn State 3:30pm
25.5 points is way too much in this Big Ten matchup. Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald is a career 3-1 vs the line and spread when facing off against James Franklin led teams. Fitzgerald also impresses with a 21-10 record as a road underdog since 2014. Combine that with James Franklin’s 3-9 record vs the spread as a Big Ten host since 2019 and I believe 25.5 points covers. Penn State wins 34-17.
Clemson -6.5 vs North Carolina State 7:30pm
DJ Uiagalelei is starting to ball out for the Clemson Tigers. Mix in adverse weather and a hostile environment, the moment could be too big for the Wolfpack. I think Clemson gets the job done and covers in a sloppy weather contest. Tigers win 27-20.
Top NFL Picks AFC 1pm slate – Week 4 (9/29-10/3)
Buffalo Bills -3 vs Baltimore Ravens 1:00pm
Two MVP candidates square off in this matchup that should be a thriller. The Bills head in after a bad loss to Miami while the Ravens took care of business against the Patriots. In the last seven games the Bills post a 5-1-1 record against the spread. I think the Ravens defense takes a step back in this one and Josh Allen connects with Stefon Diggs to lead the Bills to a 34-27 victory.
Pittsburgh Steelers -3 vs New York Jets 1:00pm
The Steelers offense has been miserable to say the least but get back on track at home against the Jets. Reports indicate Zach Wilson could suit up. He’ll have to shake the rust off against an above average defense. Steelers cover 24-16.
Top NFL Picks NFC 1pm slate – Week 4 (9/29-10/3)
Washington Commanders +3 vs Dallas Cowboys 1:00pm
Cooper Rush has performed well in the absence of Dak Prescott, coming off a huge divisional Monday Night Football win against the G-men. These two teams have split their past 4 contests and the Commanders are on a 7-4-1 vs the spread streak. I think Carson Wentz has enough in the tank and the Commanders win outright. Grab the points at +3 but the Commanders win 24-20.
Detroit Lions -4 vs Seattle Seahawks and over 48 points 1:00pm
Both teams head into this matchup with a 1-2 record. Detroit’s offense hasn’t been the problem as they’ve put up 24+ points in every game. Lions coach Dan Campbell is now 14-6 against the spread since last season and are on a current 5-0 over run. In a game that features two mediocre to bad defenses, I look for the over to continue to hit. Lions win 34-24 to cover and the over hits.
Under 39.5 Chicago Bears vs New York Giants 1:00pm
Even with a low total I’m looking for the under to hit in this contest. New York’s defense has performed well overall on the young season. Both teams should see 25+ run attempts which means run that clock. The G-men are 2-0-1 hitting the under and 20-5-1 in their last 26 games. G-men win a boring contest 20-13.
Top NFL Pick 4:25 slate – Week 4 (9/29-10/3)
Green Bay Packers -9.5 vs New England Patriots 4:25pm
No Mac Jones and the Packers have covered against the spread at Lambeau 9-1 in their last 10 games. Belichick is also 1-3 vs the spread on the road in the Patriots last four attempts. Rodgers, Jones and Lazard do enough to keep this one double digits. Packers win 28-10.
Top NFL Pick Sunday Night Football – Week 4 (9/29-10/3)
Tampa Bay Bucs +1 vs Kansas City Chiefs 8:30pm
Super Bowl rematch two years removed! Both Mahomes and Brady coming off of losses makes for an intriguing game. Even with last week’s loss Tom Brady boasts a 9-3 spread run dating back to last season. The Chiefs come in 13-22 against the spread in their last 35 and the offense has not looked as great without Tyreek Hill. Brady gets Evans back in this one and possibly Julio Jones. Bucs win 27-24.
Top NFL Pick Monday Night Football – Week 4 (9/29-10/3)
Los Angeles Rams +1.5 vs San Francisco 49’ers 8:15pm
San Francisco enters this one with an impressive 5-0 vs the spread against the Rams in their previous five matchups. Even with the 49’ers owning the series of late I love the Rams in this position in primetime. Stafford, Kupp and the defense get the job done and win outright. Grab the +1.5 and the Rams win 24-21.
Matt Zitt’s picks on the year: 3-5
All lines taken from DraftKings
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