Betting on underdogs in the NFL is a common and increasing trend among American sports bettors. Now, while banking on favorites to win a game is the most common betting pattern, some bettors prefer a more glorious approach. The reason is simple: if things go as predicted, shooting for the underdogs can land a big win.
Besides, the stakes and potential win keep you on the edge of your seat, adding an extra layer of excitement to the betting experience. Let’s look at why betting on underdogs in football can pay off and some tips on how to go about finding the best opportunities.
What is Underdog Betting?
Simply put, underdog betting involves backing the less favorite to win a game. Ideally, most people add the better team to their bet slips because it’s logical that they’ll win the game. But football has shown us over time that the opposite happens more often than expected.
At the beginning of the 2024 NFL season, we saw some wild results as the biggest underdogs pulled off upsets. One shocking winner was the New York Giants’ win over the Indianapolis Colts.
Sometimes, wild card teams even go all the way to win the Super Bowl. That’s why taking a risk on some underdog teams during the NFL season can be a good move for bettors.
Why Consider Betting on Underdogs?
Here are some reasons to consider underdog picks when placing your next NFL bet.
Get Bigger Odds
Bettors who want to boost their potential returns can benefit from placing their bets on underdogs. Underdogs typically offer larger betting odds compared to favorites — which translates into bigger returns for small wagers when an underdog triumphs. Risk-tolerant bettors find underdogs appealing because they can gain from unforeseen results in NFL games.
Bettors can determine their potential returns precisely when they use betting odds calculators with the given odds and stakes. AskGamblers platform offers valuable tools for users who want to comprehend betting odds and choose their bets wisely.
Great Picks for Spreads
Underdogs are good picks for spreads. While they may not win the game, there are opportunities to play the spread and win. For instance, you can bet on their points advantage with options like losing by less and final score margin.
Mispriced Odds Advantage
Some bookmakers underestimate underdog teams so much that they offer high-value odds that don’t exactly reflect their performance or winning chances. Bettors can capitalize on this and potentially cash out big winnings.
Football is Unpredictable
Another reason to consider underdog bets is because of the unpredictability of the game. We’ve seen some resilient underdog teams turn around a potential loss to a big win. Some even win by sheer luck, but a win is a win. So, upsets happen more than they seem.
A good tactic is to play parlay bets that mix underdog bets with safer favorite bets. Alternatively, you can consider live betting to make in-game betting choices.
How to Find Good Underdog Bets in the NFL
Here are some tips for spotting underdog bets with potential:
Check Head-to-Head Stats
Stats are everything in sports betting — and they are even more crucial when picking underdog bets because they typically defy the odds.
Some games have had more underdog wins over the past few seasons; you may consider such games.
Consider Form and Injuries
When studying game statistics, you should pay attention to recent team performance. A team that maintains winning streaks remains strong against weaker opponents despite being favored. When a favorite team suffers four straight losses, its players will probably start playing with diminished confidence. A close underdog opponent might extend the favorite team’s recent losing streak.
Injuries also matter a great deal. When key players get hurt, less experienced reserves often fail to meet expectations. Betters can find winning opportunities by taking action here. By staying cautious, coaches may also reduce the confidence of their replacement players to deliver strong results.
Focus More on Divisional Games
Divisional games are often won by fine margins because the teams are very familiar with each other. Moreover, such rivalries have underdogs stepping up to claim a victory over their divisional neighbors. Many times, even the lowest-ranked teams within a division go toe-to-toe with their rivals and come out victorious. So, you may back one to snag a win.
Final thoughts
There are different ways to make money from betting on the NFL. While the most common way is by betting on favorites, many bettors now take a different approach by backing the least likely team to win. Well, this is not just backing any team but doing the approach research that shows the underdog has the potential to stun the favorites. Happy betting!
