With six first-round quarterbacks in the first twelve picks, it’s a viable question about who will walk into a starting position. The conundrum with being a quarterbacks drafted early in the first round is that you are generally leading a team who did not have a great prior season, setting you up for some growing pains.
Quarterbacks being drafted later are obviously going to teams with better supporting casts, but have a harder path to a starting position. There is always the possibility that a team trades up (like the 49ers moving up to pick three to pick Trey Lance), but that doesn’t always work out either. This year’s first-round quarterbacks walk into a variety of situations.
As history shows, not all of these signal callers will have successful careers, but we won’t know who the successful vs unsuccessful QBs are for a few more years. We can make some educated guesses on how this upcoming season will go though.
Which First-Round Quarterbacks Will Start?
Caleb Williams – Chicago Bears
After trading their last quarterback of the future, Justin Fields, the Bears have told us that this is obviously Williams’ team. They have also made a more concerted effort to surround him with positional talent. Bringing in veteran wide receiver Keenan Allen and drafting Rome Odunze to start alongside DJ Moore and tight end Cole Kmet gives Williams plenty of targets. Adding D’Andre Swift to the backfield gives him a solid dump down option.
Williams is set up to succeed more than most quarterbacks drafted first overall and will receive all of the first-team reps and coaching. The biggest question mark is whether his team can protect him both from the pass rush as well as the defense keeping the games close enough that he doesn’t have to sling it forty times a game.
Jayden Daniels – Washington Commanders
Just like the Bears, the Commanders traded away their prior quarterback of the future Sam Howell to clear the path for Daniels to be their starting quarterback from day one. Commander’s head coach Dann Quinn spoke about how Daniels is already showing the leadership qualities they were looking for, telling reporters after day one of their rookie minicamp, “And so sometimes as a quarterback, it’s not just what you’re doing, it’s making sure the formation is set. It’s starting a motion, it’s getting a correction. That’s when you know you have full command. Not only knowing your responsibility but knowing the others around (you).”
That sounds like a starting NFL quarterback assessment to me. He doesn’t have the weapons around him that Williams does, with wide receiver Terry McLaurin being the only bona fide star on the Commanders’ offense team with aging pieces running back Austin Ekeler and tight end Zach Ertz being brought in this off-season. Daniels will need to be that leader Quinn described if he wants to try to recreate the season Houston Texans’ CJ Stroud had last year as the number two overall, and second quarterback drafted.
Drake Maye – New England Patriots
Out of all six of these quarterbacks, Maye has the most unclear position on his team. Generally speaking when a player is drafted third overall, they are expected to start on day one, and be a star. this may not be one of those situations though. The Patriots are in a clear rebuilding stage, moving on from future Hall of Fame coach Bill Belichick. They haven’t made the playoffs since 2021 and haven’t won a playoff game since 2018, their last Super Bowl win with Belichick and Tom Brady. What does that mean for Maye?
Well, during the offseason, they also traded their quarterback of the future, Mac Jones, away. But, unlike the Bears and Commanders, they brought in a trusted veteran during free agency. Brissett was signed to a one-year, $8 million contract, with incentives pushing it to $12 million. Not exactly backup quarterback money. Brissett was also the Cleveland Browns starter in 2022 when new Patriots offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt was their quarterback coach, so it doesn’t take much thought to connect the dots.
Then, head coach Jerod Mayo had this to say about Maye, “Look, he has a lot to work on. A lot to work on. But I have no doubt that he will put the time in,” Mayo said, via team transcripts. “You didn’t see him out here yesterday, but he was here all night trying to get on the same page as everyone else.” This tells us two things: one, his coach doesn’t trust him yet, and two, he’s going to push to start at some point this season. I don’t see the Patriots setting the league on fire, so a mid-season take over by Maye seems likely.
Michael Penix Jr. – Atlanta Falcons
This selection was the most surprising draft pick in the whole draft, but gives the most obvious starting situation. Penix Jr. is not starting at any point this year unless Kirk Cousins goes down with an injury. Cousins was the top free agent quarterback in the offseason, and the Falcons signed him to a four year, $180 million contract. Cousins is their starter, and he should put up good numbers, just like he has his whole career. Although a top ten draft pick, Penix Jr. is going to get the Jordan Love treatment.
At 35 years old, Cousins should have a couple of very solid years left in him before he enters the twilight of his career. Penix Jr. will probably spend two years behind Cousins before he opens his starting career in the 2026 season.
JJ McCarthy – Minnesota Vikings
After losing Cousins to the Falcons, the Vikings were obviously looking for a new quarterback this offseason. They also signed a veteran free agent in Sam Darnold, who spent 2023 backing up first year starter Brock Purdy. He was seen as an insurance policy behind the young quarterback incase an injury happened, and many in the league and press believed that Darnold was brought in to mentor and be the same for whatever rookie quarterback the Vikings drafted, who happened to be National Champion McCarthy.
I, like most, assumed that McCarthy and Darnold would battle for the QB1 position, a situation that seems to normally be more for show than anything, making it seem like McCarthy ‘earned’ the starting spot. This doesn’t appear to be the position the Vikings are taking though. Instead, they appear willing to let Darnold start and coach McCarthy behind him, in a more Alex Smith and Patrick Mahomes situation.
If the Vikings are able to stick to their guns, it appears that McCarthy will be a year two starter while they use Darnold as a bridge quarterback this year.
Bo Nix – Denver Broncos
Broncos’ head coach Sean Payton appears to be smitten over their new rookie quarterback Bo Nix. After watching Nix practice, he said, “It’s almost like watching a good golfer. Sometimes when you watch his game over two years, there’s a patience to how he plays. The ball comes out, and – I don’t want to use the term ‘boring,’ that’s not the right term, but [he makes] pretty good decisions.” This is a marked change in tone when comparing Payton’s discussions about former quarterback Russell Wilson.
It seems pretty obvious that Nix is going to be the Broncos starter from Week 1. With only Jarrett Stidham and newly acquired Zach Wilson to compete against, Nix has a clear path to play as the QB1 this season. With a weak supporting cast on a perpetually rebuilding Broncos team, I wouldn’t expect him to win OROY or anything, but with Payton in his corner he must have the inside road to start and end the season as QB1 for the Broncos.
The Conclusion To The Initial Discussion
So who starts day one? It would appear the obvious answers are Williams, Daniels, and Nix; the first, second, and sixth quarterbacks selected. Maye has the possibility to usurp veteran Brissett at some point this season, if for no other reason than to get him reps on a losing team. Meanwhile, McCarthy seems to be set up for a no pressure red-shirt rookie season, and Penix Jr. may be learning from Cousins in Atlanta for two or three years.
All six of these first-round quarterbacks have the opportunity to shine for their teams at some point, but it looks like only half of them will likely show that this season.
