We went 3-1 last week, and stand a very profitable 5-1-2 on the season, so let’s get started with the best bets for Week 6 in college football….
Five weeks into the 2022 season and I’m still only sure about two things: 1) One of the three amongst Alabama, Georgia, and Ohio State will win the national championship, and 2) I am going to keep making you some money if you follow my picks! Each Friday, I post my Wells’ Winners. You can decide how you want to thank me, but I do accept gratitude in form of bourbon and cigars.
(All lines are accurate as of this posting)
Missouri (+11) @ Florida
The good news for MU: They should be getting more credit for their impressive performance last week. They took Georgia head-on and didn’t buckle, the Bulldogs just have more talent at every position and finally were able to overwhelm the Tigers. Florida does not have the other-worldly talent that Georgia does, and Missouri typically plays the Gators closely, even in Gainesville. The two teams have alternated wins over the last five matchups at The Swamp, with Florida winning the most recent battle in 2020, 41-17. Eli Drinkwitz’s team doesn’t run the ball particularly well, but they are facing a Gator defense that ranks last in the SEC in rush yards allowed per game.
The bad news for MU: The Tigers rank 12th or worse in the SEC in total yards/game, passing yards/game, and points/game. They are 8-12 over their last 20 SEC East games. And how bad will the hangover be from the “almost” of last weekend?
I see Florida winning at home, but this game is tight throughout, and Mizzou covers.
Prediction: Gators 27 – Tigers 21
Texas Tech @ #7 Oklahoma State (-9)
Mike Gundy is 8-1 at home against Tech over his career, and his Cowboys have won those games by an average of 12 points each. Spencer Sanders has done an excellent job so far this season of protecting the ball, while his counterpart Donovan Smith has been prone to turn it over.
The Cowboy offense is 5th in the country in points per game, and the Red Raider defense is 82nd in points allowed per game. In addition, opportunities for the Poke defense and special teams could easily blow this game open.
OSU wins and wins easily. Lay the points.
Prediction: Orange Pistols 44 – Red Guns Up 24
Texas A&M (+24) @ #1 Alabama and OVER 51
“Bro, are you nuts? Alabama is going to curb-stomp the Aggies!” Does that sound like what you’re hearing from pundits across the country? I can’t argue with the optics of this matchup, especially after what I’ve seen from both teams so far this season.
However, the smart money typically is to go against what everyone else is saying, and the fact of the matter is that while A&M is an absolute mess on offense, their defense is still pretty solid. Alabama will likely be without Heisman winner Bryce Young leading the Tide offense, and while the Bama offense is 4th in the country in scoring, the Aggie defense is a respectable 22nd in points allowed.
The margin of victory over the last 5 matchups in Tuscaloosa averages 26 points per contest, with the Tide going 4-1. Obviously, Vegas knows what they’re doing setting the line at 24. Whether Bryce Young plays or not, I don’t see Saban letting him throw the ball much at all. Expect Alabama to line up and dare A&M to stop their run, over and over and over, all game long. The A&M rush defense has not been nearly as good as expected, and I am convinced that will be a point of emphasis for the Tide.
Alabama wins and wins comfortably, but take the Aggies and the points and enjoy the over as well.
Prediction: Sizzlin’ Sabans 40 – Frownin’ Fishers 20
Texas vs. Oklahoma (in Dallas) OVER 66
The Red River Shootout, Red River Rivalry, Red River Showdown….whatever you want to call it, the annual game at the Cotton Bowl never fails to entertain. The 100th meeting at the Cotton Bowl (and 118th all-time) between the two college football bluebloods should be another memorable one. This season is the first in the last 20 that neither team will enter the game ranked inside the Top 25. OU has won 7 of the last 10 over the Horns, and 13 of the last 20.
The last five Shootouts have combined for 93, 66, 61, 98, and 103 points. The Sooners have given up 96 total points in their last 2 conference games, losing to both Kansas State at home and TCU on the road. The Longhorns and Sooners both have offenses in the Top 30 in scoring. Eight of the last nine meetings have been decided by one score. Put it all together, and you get all kinds of points.
Prediction: The Red Half of the Cotton Bowl 41 – The Orange Half of the Cotton Bowl 35
Those are my college football best bets for Week 6. Check more of me out here. Make some money!
