Time to transition from season-long player props to single-game one. Sportsbooks are slowly trickling out NFL player props for Week 1 of the NFL season. Even though the full slate is not fully available yet, there’s still plenty of numbers and odds to lock in right now.
Kirk Cousins OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns vs Packers (-135 DK)
Cousins threw at least two touchdowns in 13 out of 17 games last season, and cleared that benchmark 13 out of 16 games in 2020. Also, since joining the Vikings in 2018, Cousins has covered this number in three out of home games against the Packers.
He posted these numbers with a defensive-minded head coach in Mike Zimmer. This year, former Los Angeles Rams offensive coordinator Kevin O’Connell takes over. They should be much more aggressive through the air. Plus, Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen are still major endzone threats. This is definitely a player prop worth taking before the odds worse.
Deebo Samuel OVER 48.5 Receiving Yards at Bears (-115 DK)
This Samuel player prop is getable. First of all, he had at least 49 receiving yards in 14 out of 17 games last season. Yes, the 49ers are making a switch from Jimmy Garoppolo to Trey Lance this season. However, Deebo had 58 and 63 receiving yards in the two games Lance started last year. Plus, Lance targeted him 15 times in those two games.
There’s some concern Deebo will be used like a running back again. However, that storyline feels a bit overblown. Elijah Mitchell is back healthy, and Jeff Wilson Jr. is back healthy. Plus, rookie third-round pick Tyrion Davis-Price impressed during the Preseason. The need for Deebo to play in the backfield does not exist at the moment.
Evan Engram OVER 2.5 Receptions at Commanders (-110 DK)
Yes, it’s a Jacksonville Jaguars player prop. Engram had at least three receptions in 10 out of the 15 games he played with the New York Giants last season. That’s impressive given he’s dealing with the volatile Daniel Jones. He did not cover the number in his lone game against Washington last season, but the Giants started Jake Fromm that day.
Engram should see a bump in quarterback quality in Jacksonville with Trevor Lawrence. Plus, Doug Pederson’s offense values the tight end position. Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert are prime examples of tight ends who flourished with Pederson. Dan Arnold and Chris Manhertz could garner targets, but reports suggest Pederson has a specific role in mind for Engram. It’s a low-numbered prop for a player who’s got upside.