Washington’s defense will need to step in 2022. The Washington Commanders open up the 2022 NFL season against the Jacksonville Jaguars. In the past 7 meetings, Washington has won 6 of them. In 2018 in Jacksonville, the last time the two teams met, Washington won 16-13. Washington also won the last time the two teams met at FedEx Field in 2014, 41-10. It’ll be interesting to see how this matchup plays out as each team struggled to find their grove in 2021. The Jaguars had the first pick in the 2022 NFL Draft and selected Travon Walker, a defensive end from Georgia. Washington went the offensive route with Jahan Dotson, wide receiver from Penn State, as there with the 16th pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. Here are my three areas of concern:
1.) Total Yards Allowed
Washington went 7-10 last season. In those 10 losses, their defense gave up an average of 401.9 total yards per game. During their seven wins, the defense gave up an average of 298.4 total yards per game. During the 2021 season, the most total yards they allowed in their wins was 391 in their week 2 matchup against the New York Giants. This matchup resulted in a 30-29 win for the Commanders with a game-expiring field goal by Dustin Hopkins. From this information, if Washington’s defense gives up more than 400 total yards of offense, you should place a loss in the win-loss column.
2.) Road Games
Road games are tough for every NFL team, especially for the Commanders. In 2021, they allowed 559 plays on the road compared to 506 defensive plays at home. That is 53 more chances for the opponent to score, not ideal for a team that wants to get back into playoff contention. Compared to home games, on the road, the defense gave up an average of 5.78 total yards per play (4.3 yards rushing and 7.6 yards passing). While at home, the defense gave up an average 5.64 total yards per play (3.9 yards rushing and 7.5 yards per passing attempt). They gave up 175 first downs as well (54 on rushing plays and 121 on passing yards). When at home, the defense gave up 145 first downs (47 on rushing plays and 99 on passing plays).
3.) 2nd Quarter
The Commanders struggled the most in the second quarter. They gave up a total of 14 touchdowns (five rushing and nine passing and 98 first downs (70 in passing plays and 28 in rushing plays). Per play, Washington gave up an average of 4.9 rushing yards, whereas in the first, third, and fourth they never reached above an average of 6 rushing yards per play. Through the air, 8.1 yards per attempt was the average in the second quarter (the first quarter was the worst with an average of 8.3 yards per attempt). The average yards per play in the second quarter was 6.47. I remember the Hail Mary that the New Orleans Saints pulled off to end the first half in their home game matchup with the Commanders in 2021 at FedEx Field and the crowd just went silent. This was a game changer to say the least.
4.) 3rd Down
Third downs were not in Washington’s favor. Their defense gave up an average of 5.2 rushing yards per play and 8.3 passing yards per attempt per play, a total average of 6.81 yards per play. 17 touchdowns on third down were how much the defense gave up, more than first and second down combined (Washington’s defense gave up eight touchdowns in the first and second quarters). At NFL games, I’ve noticed the noise difference in the crowd on third down. The crowd can make a difference if the noise is loud enough. Washington already has trouble filling seats at FedEx Field. If this stays true, the defense will need to just rally together and feed off each other’s energy.
5.) 7-9 Yards to Go
When the defense was in the range of 7-9 yards to go, the Commanders struggled. The defense gave up an average of 6.06 total yards per play (4.3 yards rushing and 8.2 yards per attempt passing). When they were in situations in yards-to-go averages of 1-3, 4-6, and 10+, they never averaged more than 8 yards per completion. Overall, this is the most concerning statistic in my opinion. 7-9 yards to go sounds like the average after a first down and if they want to be competitive in the NFC East, they must fix this come 2022.
Washington’s defense was not that impressive in the 2022 NFL Preseason. If they do not make adjustments come September 12th, they will have a long season ahead of them.
For more statistics on Washington’s 2021 NFL season, check out there page on Pro Football Reference: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/was/2021_opp_splits.htm
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