When betting on NFL games, the easiest approach to evaluate which odds provide the most value is to use metrics and data. Going with your gut instinct or picking favorites is not a good betting strategy. You can identify odds that do not accurately reflect the anticipated outcome by evaluating club stats, player matchups, and trends.
In fact, it´s a great strategy for people looking to find the best outcome of matches, since the more information you have, the best your NFL odds will be. This data might come in handy for those trying to place a bet in NFL matches, or even when having a “fantasy football” with friends or colleagues.
When determining team analytics, take into account offensive and defensive ranks. Teams boasting a top offense, such as the Kansas City Chiefs or Los Angeles Rams, will typically have excellent odds for over bets and moneylines when facing average or below-average defenses. Teams with strong defenses, such as the San Francisco 49ers or the Baltimore Ravens, will typically have favorable odds for under bets or on the moneyline, especially when facing unreliable offenses.
It is also necessary to compare position matchups. For example, if a team with a good passing attack faces a club with a weak secondary, their quarterback and top receivers could be in line for a huge game. You want to target the odds on the QB going above their throwing yards or touchdowns prop, or the odds on receivers scoring touchdowns. Avoid selecting the over for a quarterback against a shutout defense with elite cornerbacks.
Take into account player statistics and trends as well. Some players excel in primetime games or against divisional opponents. Look for wide receivers or tight ends that have a track record of scoring touchdowns against the opponent this week. Check out how running backs fared against that team’s rushing defense in past games. Consider players who have had a bye week, as they are more rested.
Look for teams that start slowly and end strong on a continuous basis. Some teams are well-known for suffering in the first half but rallying in the second. If they’re underdogs, look for the second half spread or over/under. Other teams that have a history of starting strong but then fading may find greater value in their first quarter or first half lines.
Using all of these information and patterns, you may select which NFL odds to target by identifying circumstances where teams and players have significant advantages that aren’t adequately reflected in the odds. Even if popular opinion and the oddsmakers predict a different outcome, the data can guide you to value. With practice, statistical analysis can become an important predictor of success.
In summary, instead of backing favorites, research team and player metrics, analyze positional matchups and histories, seek for trends, and focus on odds that offer value. You’ll increase your chances of betting on the best odds if you take an analytical approach.
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