College Football is one of the most interesting sports in the world in that, despite its interest, for the most part, it is pretty predictable. For example, before the season even starts, out of 134 teams, maybe only six or seven of them realistically have a real chance to win the National Championship. That’s about 5% of the teams.
Can you imagine any other sport where, before the season starts, only about 5% of the teams have a realistic chance at raising the championship trophy at the end of the season? In fact, in the last 20 years, only 10 different teams have won a National Championships. Again, only 13% of the teams have won a Championship in the last 20 years. In that same span, 40% of the NFL teams have won a Super Bowl, 37% of NBA teams have won the Finals, and 43% of MLB teams have won a World Series.
In other words, college football is pretty predictable.
Josh Pate Releases Future Top 15 Teams
College Football analyst and expert Josh Pate released who he believes will be the best 15 teams over the next three seasons, and it is pretty close to what you may think. Here is the complete list:
- Georgia
- Alabama
- Ohio State
- Oregon
- Texas
- Florida State
- Notre Dame
- Oklahoma
- Michigan
- Texas A&M
- LSU
- Tennessee
- Miami
- Clemson
- Penn State
Pate released his rankings based on recent results, recruiting, and the current team culture. It is worth noting that in today’s culture, the transfer portal could flip a team very quickly, and that can happen especially quickly when a coach leaves for another program and brings his old team with him.
3 Interesting Observations
- There are no Big 12 teams: The Big 12 is known for its parody and the fact that every year, seven to eight teams could be playing for the Big 12 Championship at the end of the season. This parody appears to be costing the league a spot in the rankings. For context, in the last four years, seven teams have played in the Championship game, with only Oklahoma State appearing twice. For context, the SEC has only had four different teams.
- The SEC and Big 10 will be dominant, which could make some non-dominant finishes. The SEC has seven teams in Pate’s Top 15, while the Big 10 has four. This means that, realistically, a team like Tennessee could finish fifth in the SEC for the next three years and still be viewed as a Top 15 team overall. This will make things interesting with the rankings and at-large bids into the playoffs.
- Miami and Texas A&M will finally live up to the hype. For what feels like a decade, Miami and Texas A&M have entered each season with a ton of hype and a high ranking, only to fall short and be irrelevant by the middle of October. Pate seems to think that things will finally work out and that both teams will be in the top 15 over the next three years.
🚨TOP CFB PROGRAMS: NEXT 3 YRS🚨
1. UGA
2. Alabama
3. Ohio State
4. Oregon
5. Texas
6. FSU
7. Notre Dame
8. Oklahoma
9. Michigan
10. Texas A&M
11. LSU
12. Tennessee
13. Miami
14. Clemson
15. Penn State— Josh Pate (@LateKickJosh) July 8, 2024
Are Any College Football Teams Missed?
When looking at the list that Pate put out, a few teams feel like they could be on the cusp of being a great team for the next three years. Some of those teams include:
- USC – While playing in the Big 10 means long road trips, it also means long road trips for other teams. Could a 7:00 PM local kickoff (10:00 PM ET) negatively affect a team like Michigan or Ohio State coming from the East Coast?
- Colorado- This is a wildcard, but talent-wise, the Buffaloes have all the pieces to be a great team. If they figure things out this year, they could easily become a Top 10 team over the next three years.
- Utah – Utah has been the most consistent regular season team west of Texas over the past five years and has finished in seven of the last ten years, including being ranked in the Top 15 three of the last five years.
- Ole Miss—As if the SEC needed more teams, Ole Miss feels like it is going in the right direction and has the NIL power to keep up with anyone.
