Fantasy football is all about the hidden gems. Those players who are drafted in the later rounds but end the year at the top of their positional rankings are the ones who win fantasy leagues. Here are three middle-round wideouts who could be fantasy MVPs in 2022:
Darnell Mooney
ESPN ADP: 66.6, PPR Rank: WR21
There were times this offseason when Darnell Mooney would show up to Halas Hall, the Bears’ practice facility, as late as midnight to run routes, according to The Athletic. At just 24 years old, Mooney says he wants to be the best player in football, and he’s putting in the work to get there. Him and second year QB Justin Fields have spent significant time together this offseason, more than any QB he’s had before.
“We’re just really similar guys,” Mooney said, according to ProFootballTalk. “We’re not forcing anything. It’s just natural.”
The Bears hired Luke Getsy as their new offensive coordinator this offseason, who spent the past three seasons in Green Bay as the QB coach and also passing game coordinator in 2020-21. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers won two MVPs during that time, so the expectations are high now that he’s been hired by the division-rival Bears.
A route technician like Mooney will surely be the Devante Adams of this offense. Getsy knows that Fields and Mooney shared an instant bond that has only grown stronger this offseason, so expect Mooney to command at least a 25% target share. He got 26% last season, when he ranked 23rd in PPR fantasy points as well as top-20 in deep routes run, receptions, yards, and yards after catch. With a new offense and a healthy Fields, that should translate to a top-15 fantasy finish, at least, especially because of his inclination toward the deep ball.
Gabriel Davis
ESPN ADP: 76.8, PPR Rank: WR34
Bills GM Brandon Beane, who was ranked No. 1 in the NFL by Pro Football Network, had plenty of available receivers to choose from this offseason, but he refrained because of Gabriel Davis. After his absurd playoff performance last season, 10 catches for 242 yards and FIVE scores in two games, Davis has secured his starting role for 2022. Beane and head coach Sean McDermott have made it clear that he will be the clear-cut No. 2 target for Josh Allen.
Emmanuel Sanders’ departure leaves 72 targets up for grabs on top of the 49 Davis received in his part-time role. The combination of Sanders and Cole Beasley had more top-12 fantasy finishes than Stefon Diggs last season, per Eric Moody. Jamison Crowder was brought in to fill the slot role, but considering Davis’ strong connection with Allen, assume he will command a greater share of those vacated targets.
Davis posted the 10th-best wide receiver PFF grade in the NFL last season (81.5) and has shown a proclivity for big plays, as he finished top-5 in total end zone targets. Here’s one of his more spectacular catches from the regular season, a deep toe-tap down the sideline where he displays elite awareness and footwork.
https://twitter.com/pro__ant/status/1545043495836008450?s=21&t=OkfKeMdPZj73Ga_XPH6EXw
Davis proved his big-play ability on the largest stage with a 200-yard, 4-touchdown performance in last year’s AFC Divisional game in Kansas City. That clutch delivery, along with the Bills’ high-volume passing offense led by the current MVP favorite, should give fantasy footballers extreme confidence in Davis’ ability to smash his already-high expectations. While he will likely jump to second on the team in targets, Davis could match Diggs in yards and/or touchdowns because of his deeper route tree.
Allen Robinson
ESPN ADP: 82.9, PPR Rank: WR33
People often forget that Allen Robinson once led the league in touchdowns during a spectacular 1,400-yard season in Jacksonville. He’s one of the most gifted receivers in the league when it comes to contested catches, partially because Chicago’s offense was so uncreative. Nonetheless, he had two 1,000-yard seasons in four years in Chicago, and now he joins one of the most dynamic offenses in football, the LA Rams.
Robinson posted an impressive 88.4 PFF grade just two seasons ago, which would have ranked fifth last year. His grade was this high because of the shockingly small 2.3 yards of separation he gained per target, which ranked near the bottom of the league, according to Next Gen Stats. That means he had to work for his receptions, most of which were highly contested. Still, Robinson finished with 102 catches and 1,250 yards with Mitchell Trubisky under center. It is an absolute crime that Trubisky is the best quarterback Robinson has had in his career thus far.
Expect Sean McVay to let Robinson play to his strengths while also unlocking some new abilities. He will surely get red zone and jump-ball opportunities, but he will also be given plays designed to get him the ball in space, which was scarce in Chicago. That extra opportunity should allow him to excel in fantasy, especially in PPR formats. Expect Robinson to flourish in the LA offense, and the target difference between him and Kupp might be smaller than people think.
Conclusion & Advice
Both Robinson and Davis are extremely talented WR2’s in offenses that are capable of supporting multiple top-10 pass-catchers. Neither the Rams nor the Bills feature their tight ends or backs heavily in the passing game, so it’s reasonable to expect both of these guys to take on the bulk of vacated targets.
While Davis is a more high-profile fantasy prospect, the two are close together in most rankings. If someone reaches on Davis, then don’t be afraid to reach on Robinson because their stats could be very similar come January.
Meanwhile, Mooney has possibly the highest ceiling of these three players due to his massive potential target share and a strong connection with Justin Fields. The Bears have their duo of the future, it’s just a matter of the scheme Getsy builds around them. He will try to make Fields more comfortable in the pocket so he can use that rife of an arm properly. Mooney will almost always be on the receiving end of those deep bombs, which will skyrocket his fantasy value. All three of these guys could be league-winners in 2022.