It is week 5 of the NFL season, which means we are a quarter of the way done with the 2022-23 season. We now know pretty much where these teams rank among each other. This is usually the best few weeks for bettors, last week Sports Books across America recorded a losing Sunday for the first time in a while. I have eight bets I am placing this weekend in the National Football League.
The Red Beard: NFL Picks Week 5
Indianapolis Colts vs Denver Broncos Under 42.5
Not only has this season been the season of unders in the NFL, these two teams have hit the under in all but one game combined this season. With Jonathon Taylor out for the Colts, I also placed a bet on Hines’ over rushing yards at 36.5.
Where will these teams’ offense come from? The Colts rely heavily on Taylor for offensive production. The Broncos outside of the Raiders game have not been able to score over 11 points it seems.
Give me one of the ugliest games of the season, Broncos win a close one 17-16.
Green Bay Packers -8 vs New York Giants
Across the pond this Sunday morning I placed this bet early when New York quarterback Daniel Jones was questionable. My thinking was to get ahead of the line movement if he was not playing before it jumped to 10.5-11.
However he is playing, this is still a good bet to me even tho the -9.5 against the Patriots last week scares me. Jones is on a bad ankle and his mobility is his best asset. I look for an aggressive defense to attack him all game and keep him on his heels.
Give me the Packers in an old fashion blowout, 38-10.
Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars Over 44.5
This bet sounds even crazier as I typed it just now. My thought process behind this one is both teams will give up 20+ points and the first team to 25 wins.
The Texans have been tough all season, even though the record would say otherwise. Also in a division game where anything can happen, I see this game coming down to the last five minutes.
Jacksonville prevails in the end, barely, beating the Texans 27-23.
Seattle Seahawks +5.5 vs New Orleans Saints
This is a bet I feel good about from a capping point of view. I am a New Orleanian so it will be hard to root for, however, the Saints have not shown the ability to win a game, much less do so by 6+ points.
Seattle has a defense I believe you can count on to hold this game under one score all afternoon. As well as the Saints not being focused enough to take care of the ball.
Give me the Saints getting their second win of the season in ugly fashion, winning 23-21 on a last-second field goal. Let’s say a 34-yarder.
Tennessee Titans -2.5 vs Washington Commanders
This is my favorite NFL pick of the week, I mean -2.5? Give me three tickets on this please, maybe one more for fun. This is a case in my numbers where you have the most overrated team in Washington against the most underrated team in the Titans.
This game will only be close on the first drive, Tennessee will be up 10+ points by the end of the first quarter and never look back, dominating on the ground.
Give me the Titans in an old fashion blowout, 31-9.
San Francisco 49ers -6.5 vs Carolina Panthers
As long as this game is under a touchdown, I want it. The panthers have not shown anything to make me believe they can compete with the 49ers’ physicality.
My numbers have this game closer to -7.5-8 than the -6.5 presented. The 49ers are the real deal this season, with proven winner Jimmy G who for some reason his own fans hate.
This game will be close until the 3rd quarter when this defense takes control like they did Monday night. Give me the 49ers winning 26-17.
Dallas Cowboys +4.5 vs Los Angeles Rams
Every day this week I have watched this number move, the wrong way. I now have three tickets at three different prices on the Cowboys and it is becoming my second favorite bet of the week behind the Titans.
I have also taken a bet on the Cowboys Money Line for this game once it hit +200. The rams are dead, they are not the hungry team from last season spraying the ball across the field. They are a sloppy team forcing the ball to number 10 on every play. Stafford of Detroit is back. (add in Eminem music here)
Give me the Cowboys in a fun game winning this one 27-21.
Cincinnati Bengals +3 vs Baltimore Ravens
This game will be a classic heavyweight bout. I would have taken whichever team was +3 or more on this one. This game will be a last-drive-to-win-it kind of game, hopefully, it is less than a field goal either way.
The Bengals have improved every week since week 1 of this season while the Ravens have lost games they had no business losing. Again if the Ravens were the dogs, I would probably take them, this is strictly a numbers play.
Give me the game going down to the wire, 33-31 either way.
Overview: The Red Beard: NFL Picks Week 5
- Indianapolis Colts vs Denver Broncos Under 42.5
- Green Bay Packers -8 vs New York Giants
- Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars Over 44.5
- Seattle Seahawks +5.5 vs New Orleans Saints
- Tennessee Titans -2.5 vs Washington Commanders
- San Francisco 49ers -6.5 vs Carolina Panthers
- Dallas Cowboys +4.5 vs Los Angeles Rams
- Cincinnati Bengals +3 vs Baltimore Ravens
(No Bet Is Guaranteed, Take All Bets At Your Own Risk)
(Lines Provided By Barstool Sports Book)
Rowan Donaghey is an NFL, NCAAF, and Betting insider for Gridiron Heroics. Follow him on Twitter for daily bets and content via @RowanDonaghey
Stay Up To Date With The Red Beard Football Picks All Season via Gridiron Heroics