The Don’ts of Fantasy Football Part 1

The moment has finally come. It is that time of year to start dusting off the old fantasy football apps and start booting up those fantasy football leagues. These are the last few weeks before the NFL season where most players start looking for any tip, trick, or bit of news to get an edge over their leaguemates. This article will take the opposite approach and examine the don’ts of fantasy football.

Part 2 can be found here.

Don’t Draft Rookie QBs

Rookie QBs are bad for fantasy football. Like really bad. Over the last 15 years, only 8 rookie QBs have passed for 20+ touchdowns. Of those 8, only one has surpassed 30 touchdowns. Over that same time span, only five quarterbacks have reached the top 10 with less than 20 touchdowns. Just avoid the rookies.

Don’t Draft QBs Early

QB1 performances are a dime a dozen. Last year, for example, 49 signal callers had a QB1 performance.  It is very tempting to draft a Josh Allen or a Patrick Mahomes in the early rounds. However, since 2019, only five out of the top five projected QBs year by year ended the season as a QB5 or higher. On the flip side, the QBs ranked 6-12 generally ended the year higher than their draft position. What does this mean? QBs selected early rarely deliver on their draft price while QBs selected later typically overperform. Additionally, great starters and crucial depth pieces can be had in the same rounds as Allen or Mahomes.

Don’t Skimp on RB Depth

Speaking of depth, one thing a lot of newer fantasy football players do is skimp on RB depth. Running back is perhaps the most valuable position in fantasy football. A solid running back will net you 20+ points a week. Very rarely does a starting RB play every game of the season though, as running back is the position that sustains the most injuries in fantasy. Nine out of the top 24 RBs finished the year without missing a game on average over the last five seasons. It has been trending downwards over the last few years as well. 15 out of 24 RBs in 2017 finished without missing a game. Seven out of 24 accomplished the same feat in 2021. In 2020, only three running backs in the top 24 finished the year without missing a game. With this data in mind, it is important not to skimp on depth and to go ahead and draft a handful of insurance RBs.

Don’t Draft to Trade

This one is a mistake a lot of inexperienced fantasy football managers make. Sometimes players miss a run on WRs or RBs and get a case of FOMO. To compensate, they rationalize that if they select one or two more stud QBs that they will have to force a trade. Don’t do this. As mentioned above, managers can find a QB1 performance off of waivers. Another example would be a manager reaching for a player that another manager is known to love in the hopes that they make a trade. Managers who clog their team with unused QBs and overvalued players are just lighting their picks on fire and will most likely lose.

Don’t Ignore Stud TEs

Tight end is the most frustrating and shallow position in fantasy football. However, drafting an elite TE is almost league winning. The difference between the TE1 and the TE5 is vast. Over the last 10 seasons, the average difference between the TE1 and the TE5 has been 53.25 points. Over that span, the TE1 has outscored the TE5 by over 50 points five times. That is a massive positional advantage if you can get one the top ranked TEs such as Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews.

In Conclusion

At the end of the day, fantasy football is about luck. Nonetheless, there are many actions managers can take to ensure that the luck goes their way. The chances of winning the league championship increases by following these don’ts of fantasy football.