Most Valuable Player
When it comes to MVP betting and predicting this season, it’s easy to look at the heavy favorites and front runners like Josh Allen and Tom Brady, who are proven guys on teams filled with talent and weapons. But those guys come with short odds as well. There’s one quarterback this season who’s outside the top 10 in odds at 25 to 1(+2500) according to Fanduel, and is on one of the most improved teams all offseason, especially at the position in which will bring the most value to him and his MVP case. He’s not exactly unproven either, this guy is a 3x pro bowler, who has also finished top three in MVP voting once already in his career, which came in 2016 before a foot injury.
Derek Carr is the best dark horse
After finishing last season with 23 touchdowns and just shy of 5,000 throwing yards, Derek Carr comes into the 2022 NFL season with a vastly improved offense that includes new All Pro wideout Davante Adams. With the weapons surrounding Carr in a new offensive system led by new head coach Josh McDaniels, Derek Carr could be in for a huge year, and a very efficient one as well. With two of the league’s best route runners in aforementioned Davante Adams, as well as slot wideout Hunter Renfrow running alongside a top five tight end in Darren Waller these numbers should drastically improve.
The Raiders, who finished and lost in the wild card round to the Cincinnati Bengals 26-19, do play in the AFC West, which is considered the hardest division in football, this can both hurt and help Derek Carr and his case for MVP.
AFC West helping or hurting his case
On one hand the Raiders might be in a few AFC West games that turn to shootouts, or games that force the Raiders to throw a lot because they’re behind. This can help Carr in his passing stats but can also mean they trail or lose multiple division games hurting the team’s record and his overall case for MVP. As the AFC West has improved into the toughest division in football, the Raiders have also made strides to becoming a top offense in this league, and this all can add up to a monster season for quarterback Derek Carr.
Derek Carr isn’t a slam dunk to finish top 5 in MVP voting, maybe not even top 10, but at 25 to 1 he sure is the best dark horse in the field. He’s the one guy with a real chance that is outside of the top TEN in voting odds, some guys ahead of him include Dak Prescott at +1200, Kyler Murray at +2000 and Jalen Hurts tied with him at +2500. The guys just behind him are Trey Lance at +4000 and Kirk Cousins at +4000. When you look at those guys at the odds they’re at, it only makes Carr stand out more at 25 to 1. Not only is Derek Carr my favorite dark horse to win the MVP this season, but the Las Vegas Raiders are also my favorite dark horse bet to bring home the Lombardi as well.
For more analysis, visit this article on the best-value super bowl bets.