The Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefs will face off in a highly anticipated matchup happening on January 18th, 2025 and now, bettors are already eyeing the over/under line set at 42.5 points.
Now the question is, will this AFC clash deliver a high-scoring thriller or a defensive masterclass?
NFL Divisional Round: Houston Texans VS Kansas City Chiefs – Betting Preview
When: Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC/ESPN+)
FPI Projection: Kansas City 62.7%
Opening Line: Kansas City -8 (42.5)
Full steam ahead. pic.twitter.com/sRINBEZMiK
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) January 14, 2025
Matchup Background: The Houston Texans (4 seed) are set to face the Kansas City Chiefs (1 seed) in an NFL divisional round matchup on January 18th, 2025.
The two teams met in Week 16, with the Chiefs emerging victorious with 27-19. Their last playoff encounter was in the 2019 wild-card round, where Kansas City Chiefs pulled off a stunning turnaround from a 24-0 deficit to win 51-31.
Fortunately, the Chiefs went on to grab the Super Bowl title that same season, and now, they aim to beat the Texans again and move forward in the playoffs.
.@Chiefs have moved from -7.5 to -8 vs. Texans.
69% of money is on KC to cover at @BetMGM pic.twitter.com/Mm3MTSJ5px
— John Ewing (@johnewing) January 14, 2025
Stat to Know: Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes boasts a perfect 6-0 record in the divisional round. He has won more games without losing in any playoff round than anyone else in NFL history.
Chiefs Injury Update: Kansas City Chiefs expects all its key players to suit up for the divisional round. Defensive tackle Chris Jones, who hasn’t played since Week 15, comes back from a calf strain.
Running back Isiah Pacheco and offensive tackle Jawaan Taylor, who sat out recent games because of injuries, should be ready to play.
Cornerback Jaylen Watson, out since Week 7 with an ankle injury, might get the green light after joining practice this week.
The Texas Wild-Card Performance
The Texans displayed immense fight within their wild-card game with a strong win of 32-12, over the Chargers. While quarterback C.J. Stroud threw for 282 yards, running back Joe Mixon ran for a touchdown and added in 106 more yards.
The defense proved very dominant with four interceptions of Justin Herbert and, in fact, forced a performance from him to record the third-most disappointing QBR of his career.
However, Cornerback D’Angelo Ross made a mark with a punt block and also, returning a blocked extra-point attempt for a touchdown.
Betting Analysis: Chiefs Are Good, But Texans Have That Extra Edge
Why the Chiefs Will Win: The Kansas City Chiefs come as the favorite for a good reason. Firstly, Mahomes has his offense clicking on all cylinders, especially with the addition of DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown returning.
Tight end Travis Kelce is still one of the league’s top offensive playmakers, and the Chiefs’ defense, led by Chris Jones and Trent McDuffie, is as elite as ever.
Their offensive talent and experience make them what we call a terrible matchup against the Texans, who have been so unreliable on the offensive side of the game.
The Chiefs open up as 8.5-point betting favorites over the Texans. pic.twitter.com/HTS3Wz6Wax
— Farzin Vousoughian (@Farzin21) January 12, 2025
Reasons Texans Will Win: The Texans’ defense, particularly the pass rush, is a good shot for the team. The Houston Texans’ most disruptive edge rushers, are Danielle Hunter, who led the league with a high 26% pass rush win rate, and Will Anderson Jr.
If these two could disrupt Mahomes’ rhythm by pressuring him, the Texans could keep the game close.
On the other hand, Cornerbacks Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter also, provide a strong guide in the secondary, with Stingley nabbing two picks (interception) in the wild-card game while Lassiter allowed no catches (reception) in his coverage snaps.
Betting Angle
Over/Under (42.5): The total points line is placed at 42.5, making it one of the best lines one can bet on.
Kansas City’s offensive power against Houston’s and Houston Texan’s ability to slow the game down makes it a matchup that could go either direction.
If the Chiefs through the first quarter dominate on the offense, then the over bet can be something that will hit quickly. But if the Texans can control the clock and impose their defensive will, the under could be the safer play.
Prop Bets: Travis Kelce’s receiving yards prop should be looked out for because Mahomes usually looks to him during critical situations.
Secondly, the pressuring flow of Houston over Mahomes could lead to a very good prop bet on possible sacks or turnovers.
Expert Predictions and Advice on the Houston Texans VS Kansas City Chiefs – Betting Preview
Experts are tending toward the Kansas City Chiefs as the leading bet, because of their powerful offensive line as well as their playoff experience.
However, there is the possibility that the Texans’ defense could create problems for the Chiefs, especially if they exploit potential weaknesses in Kansas City’s offensive line.
Bettors need to consider Kansas’ offensive dominance, but they may also find value in the under if the game turns into a slower-paced contest.
Brown o3.5 RECs + Chiefs ML Slip | -103 FD (1u)
– Brown at a buy-low spot because he's only played a few games after rehabbing injury in the off-season. Marquise has only played two games this season but he's actually cashed in BOTH of those games, even though he only had a 27%… pic.twitter.com/hpUKo0xylK
— ace. (@RealAcePicks) January 14, 2025
3 KEYS TO A TEXANS VICTORY
1. WIN THE TURNOVER BATTLE
Winning the turnover battle is key for the Texans to beat the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes hasn’t thrown a INT in six games, so forcing turnovers can disrupt their offense and give our boy C.J. Stroud extra chances to score.…
— 713SPORTS (@713SPORTSS) January 14, 2025
What are your thoughts/takes/betting prediction on the Texans @ Chiefs Divisional Round matchup taking place on the 18th of January 2025?
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