Headlined by the Buffalo Bills, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Kansas City Chiefs, when you look at the top of the 2022-2023 Super Bowl odds, you’ll find the usual suspects. Going through the odds before the season, it’s easy to see the Chiefs and think that Patrick Mahomes will just lead his team to a Super Bowl victory (that was the case in 2020).
There are a lot of storylines one can convince themselves on why a team will win that years Super Bowl. Piece together the Tom Brady potential second fairytale title with the Bucs, Josh Allen and the Bills get over the hump, Aaron Rodgers does it without Davante Adams, etc. Often times, a team at the top of the leaderboard will win the Super Bowl. Here’s a look back at the last 15 SB champions with their preseason odds and where those odds ranked among all teams:
Last 15 Super Bowl Winners:
- 2021-2022: Rams 12-1 (4th)
- 2020-2021: Bucs 10-1 (3rd)
- 2019-2020: Chiefs 6-1 (2nd)
- 2018-2019: Patriots 6-1 (1st)
- 2017-2018: Eagles 40-1 (T-9th)
- 2016-2017: Patriots 6-1 (1st)
- 2015-2016: Broncos 9-1 (T-4th)
- 2014-2015: Patriots +650 (3rd)
- 2013-2014: Seahawks 8-1 (3rd)
- 2012-2013: Ravens 16-1 (T-6th)
- 2011-2012: Giants 22-1 (9th)
- 2010-2011: Packers 11-1 (3rd)
- 2009-2010: Saints 20-1 (T-6th)
- 2008-2009: Steelers 18-1 (8th)
- 2007-2008: Giants 30-1 (T-7th)
In the last 15 years, no team outside at least tied for ninth has won the Super Bowl (A trend I attempt to break with my three picks). History is not on the side of sleepers, and it’s not supposed to be.
Take the 2021-2022 Cincinnati Bengals for example: Winning the AFC with 65-1 odds and almost winning the Super Bowl with 150-1 preseason odds. An anomaly, yes, but it shows teams in sports can go on those runs, the game needs to be played before ruling anyone out. The 2016 runner-up Atlanta Falcons sat at 80-1 to win the SB, while the 2015 runner-up Carolina Panthers were 60-1 to win their SB. One win from glory and being immortalized on the Lombardi Trophy and spited by sportsbooks. The point to remember is, the odds aren’t in your favor with longshots, but if you strike at the right year, it’ll be one hell of a ride.
Here is a full list from Sporting News on the biggest preseason longshots ever to make the Super Bowl.
3 sleepers that could hoist the Lombardi trophy at seasons end:
*All odds available via Fanduel Sportsbook
Philadelphia Eagles (30-1, T-13th best odds):
After making the playoffs last season, the Eagles have been talked about as a popular potential breakout team for the 2022-2023 season. I would recommend looking at Gridrion Heroics Dakota Gordons article here on five eagles that are poised for a breakout year.
Jalen Hurts:
No surprise, Jalen Hurts and his dynamic capabilities are going to be the headline for the Eagles potentially winning the Super Bowl. If the Eagles want to be a serious contender, it starts with their signal caller improving throwing the football. Hurts ranked 21st in passing yards and attempts last season. We all know he is an incredible runner, ranking first in rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, and rushing attempts last season.
Getting his confidence up in the passing game will be key and make him even more difficult to stop. The Eagles have noted big improvements from Hurts in the offseason citing improvement in passing and footwork. Hurts will look to take a leap and lead an Eagles offense that ranked 14th in total offense in the 2020-2021 season.
Offseason Additions:
Offense:
Speaking of improving the passing game, the Eagles attempted to do that with the acquisition of wide receiver A.J. Brown. Trading the 18th and 101st overall picks in the 2022 draft, the Eagles made it clear that getting help for Hurts was a priority. Brown now pairs with 2021 10th overall pick DeVonta Smith in what should make for one of the best receiving duos in the NFL. The addition of wide receiver Zach Pascal will give Jalen Hurts plenty of options. The Eagles last 1,000-yard receiver was Jeremy Maclin back in 2014.
Defense:
2021-2022 defensive rankings:
- 10th least yards allowed
- 11th least passing yards allowed
- 9th least rushing yards allowed
- 12th least points allowed
After a respectable defensive performance last season, the Eagles decided there needed to be changes. Adding Haason Reddick, James Bradberry, and Kyzir White should only help strengthen an already solid defense. Going with two Georgia Bulldogs in the 2022 draft, 13th overall pick Jordan Davis, and third-round pick Nakobe Dean should both see opportunities to contribute this season. Defensive tackle Fletcher Cox, and Cornerback Darius Slay both return to what should be an improved Philadelphia defense.
Offensive Line:
When it comes to critiques about the Philadelphia Eagles, offensive line should not be one of them. Often banged up last season, PFF points out that the Eagles used 15 different offensive lineman last season. In the same article, the Eagles offensive line was ranked fourth before the 2022 playoffs. Fast forward to this offseason, and PFF has the Eagles offensive line ranked first heading into the 2022-2023 season.
Behind stalwarts Jason Kelce and Lane Johnson, Jordan Mailata will look to continue his improbable rise at left tackle. PFF notes, after not playing a snap in his first two seasons and becoming a spot starter at left tackle in 2020, Mailata became one of the best players at his position last season. A pro-bowl selection is certainly in the cards for him. Isaac Seumalo and Landon Dickerson round out what could be the best offensive line in the NFL.
Bottom Line:
The Eagles have pieces to be able to go on a run to the Super Bowl. A lot will hinge on the development of quarterback Jalen Hurts and adding more of a passing game to his repertoire. Addressing offensive issues by trading for Brown, and improving defense with the signing of Haason Reddick, the Eagles could emerge and find themselves passing around the Lombardi trophy.
Raiders (40-1, T-14 best odds)
Another team coming off a playoff berth last season looking to take the next step. The Las Vegas Raiders finished last season with an impressive 10-7 record. They were able to do this despite dealing with internal controversies with former head coach Jon Gruden, and former first round wide receiver Henry Ruggs. Neither are associated with the franchise anymore, and it is time to look forward with the potential of this team. At 40-1, the Raiders are being disrespected.
Davante Adams:
One of the biggest moves of the entire offseason was the Raiders bringing in former Packers superstar Davante Adams. Adams, obviously playing alongside Aaron Rodgers his entire career, has been able to put up massive numbers. Transitioning from Rodgers to Derek Carr will be an adjustment, but it is a familiar face for both as they set records back in the day at Fresno State. Familiarity can go a long way in the NFL, look at Brady-Gronkowski, Burrow-Chase, Tua-Waddle. Having a guy that you can trust and that you’ve already had success with can elevate both of their games.
Aside from Adams being one of the most dynamic receivers in the NFL, he will also help take attention away from Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller. Renfrow, who was Carr’s favorite target last season, had 103 catches for 1,038 yards, and 9 touchdowns. Now place him as the number two guy, and this offense could be firing all over the field. Waller should be in for a resurgence season, and I write about liking the over on one of his receiving props here. Adams will also have something to prove without Rodgers throwing him the football.
Josh McDaniels:
Hiring McDaniels was a necessary move for a Vegas franchise that needs more structure and play calling. McDaniels will be able to step in and should make immediate impact with quarterback Derek Carr on improving kinks and decision making. An especially talented offensive mind, McDaniels comes into a good situation with offensive pieces he can work with. Renfrow as mentioned before, is coming off a 1,000-yard season, and now will be the number two receiver behind Davante Adams. It can go understated how having the right coaching staff makes all the difference. There’s a reason the New England Patriots have had success all these years with Belichick on top.
Josh McDaniels and Raiders GM Dave Ziegler played college football together at John Carroll University in Ohio, and helped the Patriots win a few Super Bowls. It goes back to that familiarity roll that Carr and Adams should have, when you feel comfortable with the guy you’re working with, good things tend to happen. McDaniels and Ziegler will be able to work together all season, and it shouldn’t be anywhere close to the Gruden-Mayock situation where we didn’t even know who was in charge at times.
Defensive Line Pressure & Special Teams:
2021-2022 second team All-Pro Maxx Crosby signed an extension back in March 2022, a sigh of relief for Raiders fans. Crosby, who led the NFL in quarterback pressures last season, will return to a Vegas defensive line that should be able to hold it together for Carr and the offense. PFF is not super high on the Raiders in their 2022 defensive rankings. However, they do note the abilities of Crosby and newly acquired Chandler Jones, a duo that should be able to consistently get to the quarterback.
A defensive line needs more than two play-makers, but with two guys this good who are game wreckers, they should be respectable enough. If the offense is clicking and scoring 25+ points a game, the defense just has to do their job, it gives them more room to work with.
Once again, the Raiders should have an edge in their kicking and punting games. All-pro Daniel Carlson who led the NFL in field goals returns, alongside all-pro punter A.J. Cole who was second in the NFL in punting average.
Bottom Line:
The additions of Adams, Jones, and McDaniels will obviously be a major factor this season. If Carr and Adams can rekindle their Fresno State connection, this can be one of the highest scoring teams in the NFL. Crosby and Jones will do their jobs, it’s up to all the surrounding players to take this from a playoff team to a serious Super Bowl contender.
New Orleans Saints (40-1, T-14 best odds):
Despite finishing a game over .500 at 9-8 last season, the Saints missed the playoffs for the first time since 2016. Finishing 9-8 last season was pretty amazing with the quarterback situation that developed after Jameis Winston went down in week seven against the Buccaneers. There are a few factors to look at with the Saints going into the 2022 season.
Defense, Defense, Defense:
The Saints defense, projected by bleacher report as a top three unit, should once again be a force.
A stingy bunch, it’s worth taking a look at where this defense excelled at last season:
Pass Defense:
- Quarterback completion percentage (6th)
- Yard per attempt (T-7)
- Fewest Quarterback touchdowns (3rd)
- Interceptions (T-4)
- QBR (4th)
- Sacks (7th)
Run Defense:
- Fewest rushing yards allowed (4th)
- Yards per carry (1st)
- Fewest rushing touchdowns (4th)
An excellent defense a season ago, brings in Tyrann Mathieu and Marcus Maye to offset the loss of Marcus Williams. Marcus Davenport and stalwart Cameron Jordan also return to what should be one of the NFL’s best defenses again.
Direction At Quarterback:
Last season, the Saints started out with a 4-2 record with Jameis Winston as their starting quarterback. After a week seven injury against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (they ended up winning that game to move to 5-2) held him out for the rest of the season, chaos ensued. The next five weeks came five straight losses, four Trevor Siemian behind center, and one with Taysom Hill.
The Saints watched their season pass them by after Winston went down. Winning four of their last five games was a promising end to their season, but didn’t equate into a playoff berth, a yearly ritual within the Saints organization.
Good news Saints fans: Jameis is back! Barring injury, he should once again take over the reins at the quarterback position. Not the most exciting or dynamic name, he is a guy that is good enough to get it done when needed. A far better option than the abysmal combination of Trevor Siemian, Taysom Hill, and Ian Book last season. He wasn’t asked to do a ton in his six games last season, but when needed, he was efficient.
Two games really stood out: An impressive 14/20 for 148 yards and five touchdowns in a season opening 38-3 win over the Packers, and a 15/30 for 279 yards and four touchdown performance in a 33-22 win over the Washington Commanders. Erratic at times, Jameis will need to focus in on accuracy for this team to have any chance keeping up offensively with the elite offensive teams (One of them who will be in division in the Buccaneers). More games like the Packers and Commanders ones are doable this season. Consistency and throwing within his means will be the keys to a hopefully fully healthy season for Jameis Winston.
Wide Receiving Upgrades (And the return of a former star):
Jameis Winston isn’t the only offensive Saints player that should give this team a boost. After Marquez Callaway and Deonte Harty humbly lead the Saints to the least receiving yards per game last season, changes needed to be made. Jarvis Landry signed with the Saints after getting released by the Cleveland Browns, and Chris Olave was taken with the 11th overall pick in the 2022 NFL draft. An emphasis was put on improving the pass catchers. Landry and Olave should be instant upgrades over whoever was running around last season.
Michael Thomas:
The return of Michael Thomas could go a few ways. Thomas, who only played seven games in the 2020 season, and missed the entire 2021 season with an ankle injury, should at least be able to give it a go this season. The last time we really saw Michael Thomas was the 2019 season where he led the league in catches, receiving yards, and receiving yards per game. Earning himself 2019 AP offensive player of the year.
This was all with hall of famer Drew Brees, a transition to Winston will be an adjustment. Thomas is still only 29 years old, he can work his way back into playing this season. If Thomas can show any semblance of his former self, and pair that with Landry and Olave, the Saints can have one of the best receiving corps in the NFL.
Bottom Line:
The defense should be top tier, we know that. It’ll be up to the offense to score enough to complement the defense (Think the Raiders situation but opposite). Winston should be able to click with new targets Landry and Olave, and Thomas still has the skill to rekindle his past performances. Dennis Allen taking over for Sean Payton will be different, but Allen seems to be well respected and have a great grasp of running the Saints organization, I don’t think that’ll hurt them. Alvin Kamara is still there which should be mentioned. A Super Bowl-ready defense just hopes the offense can catch up before it’s too late.
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