Just one month away from the start of the 2024 College Football season, one of the storylines that will dominate the headlines all season will be the new 12-team College Football Playoff. For the G5 teams, it means an automatic opportunity for someone. It also means an automatic spot for the winner of the Big 10, Big 12, ACC, and SEC.
However, for the Big 10 and SEC, it isn’t a matter of which team will make the playoff but how many teams will make it.
Some have suggested that the SEC could send four teams to the playoffs (the SEC Champion auto-bid and three at-large).
Eliminating Divisions Complicates Everything
Photo By: Phill Ellsworth
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Of the 12 teams, five are automatic qualifying teams. This leaves seven teams at-large from the rest of college football.
The assumption is that no matter what, the Big 10 runner-up will get an at-large spot, leaving six spots. Of those six spots, how many could the SEC expect? That is where things get a bit complicated.
In the past, the SEC has had divisions and only 14 teams. Because of that, there were only so many mathematical ways a team could get to nine or ten wins. In other words, when Ole Miss, Alabama, Texas A&M, and LSU played each other, seven combined games would result in seven losses. No matter how the wins/losses are spread out, it would eliminate at least two teams from getting to ten regular-season wins.
Now, without divisions, things are complicated.
Will the SEC Consider Top-Tier Losses?
With divisions, each SEC East team was pretty easy to compare to every other SEC East team. In a way, their two cross-divisional games were almost like nonconference games. Georgia, Florida, and Missouri all played each other, along with the other six SEC east teams, which gave a pretty good base on which to look at schedules.
The top-tiered teams can be examined. These teams are expected to do very well this year and compete for a National Championship. They include Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss, Missouri, Tennessee, Texas A&M, and Texas. That’s not to say that other teams can’t elevate to this level (Missouri did last year), but those are teams at the top now.
Will the College Football Committee penalize losses for these teams when they play each other? One would think they would have to, but considering that Texas, Georgia, and Alabama all play four of these opponents. In contrast, Missouri only plays one of these teams. Would the committee penalize Georgia for playing four of the top teams if they go 2-2?
Breaking Down the Numbers
Similar to last year in the SEC West, mathematically, there were seven losses between the top three teams, but some scenarios and losses between certain teams need to be considered. The following games take place during the season:
- Alabama vs Georgia
- Alabama vs Missouri
- Alabama vs LSU
- Alabama vs Tennessee
- Georgia vs Texas
- Georgia vs Ole Miss
- Georgia vs Tennessee
- LSU vs Ole Miss
- LSU vs Texas A&M
- Missouri vs Texas A&M
- Texas A&M vs Texas
Between these eight teams, 11 losses will be split up somewhere. Additionally, there are games such as:
- LSU vs USC
- Georgia vs Clemson
- Texas vs Michigan
- Alabama vs Wisconsin
- Texas A&M vs. Notre Dame
Let’s be lenient and say the SEC goes 3-2 in these games. Barring any other upsets (which will happen), there are still 13 losses to be split up between the eight teams.
Mathematically, some teams will be eliminated from playoff contention in these games mentioned.
Pretty funny graphic that truly shows how difficult SEC schedules are pic.twitter.com/1zUwWCGjWH
— Blake Byler (@blakebyler45) July 18, 2024
Prediction
Of the eight teams currently “in contention,” three will eliminate themselves in just the games against each other. Another team or two will suffer an unexpected loss in their other SEC games. Remember, games against Oklahoma, Kentucky, Auburn, and Florida weren’t even considered, yet there will be games that these four teams win against the eight teams in contention.
When it’s all over, there will be:
- 2 teams with 11+ wins
- 2 teams with 10+ wins
- 3 teams with 9+ wins
Any team in the SEC that goes 10-2 will be in the Playoff. Depending on the team, a team may be considered at 9-3 if the conditions are right. No 9-3 team will get in over a 12-0 G5 team, 11-1 Big 12/ACC team, or 10-2 Big 10 team, but if there are still spots open after those criteria are met, a team like Alabama, LSU, or Georiga who play a lot of tough SEC games would be heavily considered.
My final prediction is that the SEC Champion will make it and there will be at least three other teams to get at-large bids. I also predict there is a 50% chance that a fourth at-large team will make it. I believe the committee will be overly fair this year to other conferences after the pushback they got last year over Florida State.
"Well we have seven Top 25 teams on the schedule so it's probably a lot better year than it's normally been." #WPS
Sam Pittman talked about the schedule, the team and much more at SEC Media Days today, check out the whole interview below ⤵️⤵️https://t.co/6dguTDjROA pic.twitter.com/usOm1OuCGg
— Pig Trail Nation (@PigTrailNation) July 18, 2024
