Flashback to week one: It’s three minutes into the fourth quarter, Younghoe Koo just hit a 27 yard field goal, the Falcons are at home with a 16 point lead. According to ESPN, the Falcons had a 95% win probability after the field goal. A Saints team that came into Mercedes Benz stadium as 5.5 point favorites, looked like they were going to leave Atlanta with an upsetting divisional loss.
The tides ended up turning, and the Saints won 27-26 after blocking Younghoe Koo’s 63 yard field attempt. A gritty win by the Saints to improve to 1-0 and carry momentum into the week two game against the rival Buccaneers.
THE SAINTS WIN IT WITH A BLOCKED FIELD GOAL‼️
(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/CX07KOaQOd
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) September 11, 2022
Saints head coach Dennis Allen talks to his team in the locker room after the win:
POV: you are in the #Saints locker for Dennis Allen's postgame speech after his first game/win as the team's head coach! pic.twitter.com/0xtjXDthNY
— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) September 12, 2022
Saints recent regular season dominance over Bucs:
The last time the Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the New Orleans Saints in the regular season was week one of the 2018 season. Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for 417 yards and four touchdowns to out-duel Drew Brees 439 yards and three touchdowns. Buccaneers would win a 48-40 shootout in the Superdome.
Since that game, the Saints have outscored Tampa 210-108 combined in their seven straight wins. The arrival of Tom Brady in Tampa still hasn’t helped the Buccaneers conquer those pesky Saints in the regular season. New Orleans has managed to go 4-0 against Brady in the regular season, outscoring them a combined 117-53. Brady did get the best of them in the 2020 playoffs divisional round en-route to his seventh Super Bowl victory.
The four games the Saints have won against Brady, they’ve been underdogs in every game:
2020: Week 1: Bucs -3.5
2020: Week 9: Bucs -3
2021: Week 8: Bucs -4
2021: Week 15: Bucs -11.5
The line on Fanduel Sportsbook currently sits at Saints +2.5 as home underdogs.
Winston will play:
According to ESPN reports, Saints quarterback Jameis Winston is ready to rock against the Buccaneers this Sunday. Winston who played in his first regular season game since week 8 last season, looked really solid. Finishing 23/34 for 269 passing yards and two touchdowns, he improves to 5-2 in full games he’s started for the Saints. In those seven games, he has a TD:INT ratio of 15:3. His 34 pass attempts and 269 passing yards were both the second highest totals he’s hit since joining the Saints. With running back Alvin Kamara dealing with a rib injury and in jeopardy of missing Sunday’s game, Winston will need to be efficient. The Saints don’t need Winston to throw for 500 yards and five touchdowns, he just needs to be under control and pick his spots.
Winston was shaken up during the week 1 game and visited the medical tent, but came back and battled through:
pic.twitter.com/lPxvX8d3eW
Saints Jameis Winston on pain everywhere visiting tent.— NFL Rumors (@nflrums) September 12, 2022
Receiving trio making impact:
One of the most notable changes going into the 2022 NFL season for the Saints were the upgrades at wide receiver. The return of All-Pro Michael Thomas, signing of Jarvis Landry, and first round draft pick of Chris Olave, gave the Saints one of the best trios in the NFL. Add in that running back Alvin Kamara has caught at least 80 passes four of the last five seasons as well.
Looking good on paper will only get a team so far.
The Saints trio combined to catch 15 passes for 214 yards and two touchdowns. What was promising is each one played a part in the Saints comeback win.
Jarvis Landry:
Jarvis Landry led the three with seven catches for 114 yards. Landry is on a one-year prove it deal with the Saints. The 29-year-old made an impressive early impression to his new employers.
Michael Thomas:
Michael Thomas caught 5 passes for 57 yards in his first game since January 17th 2020. His two huge touchdowns in the fourth quarter furiously led the Saints back into the game, welcome back Mike!
What a pass, what a catch
Welcome back @CantGuardMike 💪
📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/G3Er1aTCfl
— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) September 11, 2022
.@Cantguardmike living up to his handle – another TD! 👊
📺: #NOvsATL on FOX
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/qfHpsgO69p pic.twitter.com/F2mH1hTtqc— NFL (@NFL) September 11, 2022
Chris Olave:
Although Chris Olave had a quiet statistical debut with 3 catches for 41 yards, the two-point conversion he caught was massive to cut the lead down to 8:
First a @cantguardmike TD, then @chrisolave_ comes through with the 2-point conversion! @OhioStateFB alums showing up for New Orleans! 😤
📺: #NOvsATL on FOX
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/qfHpsgO69p pic.twitter.com/I47TnxKqAW— NFL (@NFL) September 11, 2022
Wide receiver roundup:
It was a nice start for what very well could the NFL’s best receiving trio. Landry looked like receiver who had 1,100+ receiving yards in 2019. Thomas catching two touchdowns in his return shows he’s on the path to returning to the game changer he’s been since entering the league in 2016. Olave catching 3 passes for 41 yards on three targets is not too shabby. The coaching staff trusted Olave enough to come up big with the two-point conversion being a designed play for him. These three should only get better as they build chemistry with Jameis Winston and open up the field for each other.
Defensive bounce-back:
Giving up 26 points to the Atlanta Falcons is not what defensive minded head coach Dennis Allen had in mind. A Saints defense that allowed the fourth fewest rushing yards last season, gave up 201 in week one. Possible first week jitters, the Falcons tormented the Saints in the first three quarters of the game.
The saving defensive play for the Saints came in the third quarter when Marcus Maye forced Marcus Mariota to fumble at New Orleans five-yard-line. Tyrann Mathieu would recover the ball for New Orleans. The Saints would go three-and-out after the recovery, but it prevented Atlanta from building a 20 point lead as the fourth quarter approached. Not impossible to come back from, a 20 point deficit is increasingly more daunting than 16.
Honey Badger takes what he wants 🦡@Mathieu_Era knocks the ball out and recovers it – SAINTS BALL!
📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/nJHMCf0SK5
— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) September 11, 2022
Fourth quarter takeover:
Where the Saints separate themselves from a team like the Falcons, is the ability to turn up the pressure in the fourth quarter. New Orleans out-gained Atlanta 213-96 in the fourth quarter, while outscoring them 17-3.
An encouraging closing quarter for a Saints defense that didn’t even record a sack or interception in the game.
For a defense that many predicted to be elite, the fourth quarter against the Falcons is more of what we should expect going forward.
Bradys struggles vs Dennis Allens defense:
It’s been well documented, Tom Brady hasn’t had his best regular season games against the New Orleans Saints since joining Tampa. Going 0-4, Brady has averaged 259 passing yards and a lowly 32.18 QBR. Passing for six touchdowns and eight interceptions, the Saints defense has brought a little extra juice to these divisional games vs Brady the last few years. The numbers would look even worse if Brady did not complete 28/40 passes for 375 yards and four touchdowns in the Saints 36-27 win in week eight last season.
Bottom Line:
The Saints were able to pull out that week one win with a fourth quarter they need to carry over. Jameis Winston and the receivers should only get better, and the defense has too much talent to play like they did in the first three quarters against the Falcons. Dennis Allen should be able to draw up another confusing scheme for Brady, and make him force it all over the field if the Saints defense returns to elite form.
A game where both sides feel even, give the Saints the edge with history and a rocking Superdome behind them in what should be one of the games of the week.
Who Dat.
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