Kyle Pitts.
He’s fantastic, isn’t he?
I remember last year when the Falcons had the fourth overall pick, and some fans were not thrilled that Atlanta selected the Florida product. He’s blossomed into a top-five tight end in the NFL since then. Even though there aren’t many “superstar” tight ends in the NFL, progression like that at any position is remarkable.
It makes you wonder how much better the 21-year-old can get. And, well, some people are wondering. By some people, I mean Mario Puig of Rotowire’s Fantasy Football podcast “Fantasy Sports Radio.”
https://twitter.com/SiriusXMFantasy/status/1545839179220803584
While talking about Kyle Pitts and his value this year in fantasy football, Puig discusses the sheer dominance of Pitts and how he believes that the young phenom can be the best player at his position in NFL history:
…still finished the year over two yards per route run, 94th percentile, in an offense that had plenty of things going wrong with it. So, I almost don’t want myself to think about what could go right with Pitts if things started getting better around him, because I’d get irrational, probably. I think he’s pretty clearly on a course to be the best tight end ever.”
Wow. That is bold.
Then again, if you look at the statistics from Pitts’ rookie year, you see some significant potential for Puig’s statement to be true. Starting with his rookie year, Kyle Pitts nearly set the rookie record for receiving yards by a tight end (he was only 50 yards away). Falling short to NFL Hall of Famer Mike Ditka isn’t anything to be ashamed of, though.
Puig brings up another great point. Pitts did all this on a Falcons’ offense where everything went wrong. After Calvin Ridley’s suspension, Pitts became the number one receiver for Matt Ryan. Naturally, defenses focused on Pitts, and as a rookie in the NFL, being double or even triple-teamed, he still managed to get over 1,000 yards receiving. That, in itself, is mind-blowing.
We know this kid is unique, but can he be “best in NFL history” unique? Honestly, yes.
The Statistical Case for Kyle Pitts
The NFL record for receiving yards for a tight end is 1,416, set by Travis Kelce in 2020. Kelce was targeted 145 times and caught 105 of those passes, giving him a catch percentage of 72%.
Kyle Pitts, this season, was targeted 110 times and caught 68 of those passes, giving him a catch percentage of 62%. If we adjust Pitts to get a Kelce-sized amount of receptions, that puts him at about 90 catches on 145 targets. Pitts averages 15.1 yards/reception, so if he were to get targeted as much as Kelce, Pitts would be at 1,359 receiving yards on the season, which would be fourth in NFL history.
That is assuming Pitts stays the same, and the only thing that increases are his targets. Which, hopefully, won’t be true. As Pitts progresses, his catch percentage per season will get higher, and he’ll be able to catch more targets for more yardage. Kyle Pitts could break his season record year after year, allowing him to break the record for receiving yards in a career (as a tight end, and also assuming he has a lengthy career), 15,127, set by Tony Gonzalez.
The one counter to this point is that Kelce has Mahomes, and Pitts has Mariota. Mariota compares very poorly to Patrick Mahomes and will probably only be in Pitts’ career for a couple of years. Desmond Ridder looks promising, but it’s too early to tell if he’ll be the Falcons’ franchise quarterback. Either way, Mariota and Ridder both have something to prove. To improve their stats, they’ll look towards the best receivers on the field, and in the current state of the Atlanta Falcons, that is Kyle Pitts. So, I feel very confident Pitts will see more targets next season.
Mario Puig: “[A player like Pitts] has never existed before.”
Kyle Pitts has a nickname, the unicorn.
The reason behind that is because he plays, well, magically. He can do everything for an offense. He’s tall and bulk but runs incredibly fast; there has never been an NFL tight end like Kyle Pitts:
I don’t think the category of player that he is has ever existed before, and, uh, yeah, I’m willing to take the leap of faith…”
It’s true; he’s a freak.
Of course, there’s one thing the naysayers of Pitts will bring up. His lone touchdown during his rookie season. Sure, that’s less than ideal; scoring matters the most in the NFL. However, assuming Pitts will only amount to one touchdown catch a year is foolish. He’s 21 years old; he hasn’t even come close to his prime yet. He’ll be able to find the touchdown easier next season, especially with Drake London, Bryan Edwards, and Cordarrelle Patterson all taking defensive pressure off of him.
Of course, this is all optimism and speculation. As I said, Pitts is only 21 years of age. There are hundreds of different ways his career could turn out. But for now, I’ll stick with the storyline that the Atlanta Falcons have the upcoming G.O.A.T at the tight end position. Whether you agree or disagree, Kyle Pitts’ career will be one to watch closely.