It’s another week of Thursday Night Football Prime Picks and Props. Hopefully, we improve on the 2-2 record from last week’s picks. This Thursday game focuses in on a NFC South rematch between the 4-5 Atlanta Falcons and the 2-7 Carolina Panthers. These two teams met a week and a half ago with the Falcons winning 37-34 in overtime.
On DraftKings, the Atlanta Falcons are listed as 2.5-point road favorites. The Panthers are +125 home underdogs on the moneyline while the Falcons are -145. The game total is currently set at 42.5 points, which is a slight improvement from the 41.5-point total when these teams met in Week 8.
The first matchup between these two teams produced a lot of points and yards against one another. From the viewer’s perspective, the hope is that happens again. However, both these teams come into this Week 10 contest on low notes. The Panthers just lost 42-21 to the Cincinnati Bengals while the Falcons lost a 20-17 heartbreaker to the Los Angeles Chargers.
Notable Stats/Betting Trends
- OVER has hit in 3 straight Thursday games after a 1-4 start
- OVER has hit in five out of nine of the Falcons’ games/ The UNDER has hit in five out of nine of the Panthers’ games
- Falcons 1-0 SU when favorites/ Panthers 2-4 when underdogs
- Falcons have not covered last three games after starting 6-0 ATS
- Panthers are 1-30 SU and 6-25 ATS when their opponent scores 17 pts or more since 2020.
Prime Picks and Props
The Prime Pick: ATLANTA FALCONS -2.5 (-115 DK)
This has to be the play. First of all, the Falcons won the first meeting by three point in overtime, and it took a crazy play to get it there. The Falcons were up by six points with 12 seconds left in the game. Then, P.J. Walker hits D.J. Moore on a crazy Hail Mary to tie the game.
PJ WALKER JUST DID THAT. HAIL MARY TO DJ MOORE. pic.twitter.com/dDYwoZhaGG
— NFL (@NFL) October 30, 2022
If it weren’t for this play, the Falcons would have covered the 4.5-spread for that game. Now, it’s down to three points with the Falcons still playing better football than the Panthers. Carolina is back to a QB limbo after Walker’s horrid Week 9 performance when he threw two interceptions and for only nine passing yards. Meanwhile, the Falcons held firm in their 20-17 loss to the 5-3 Los Angeles Chargers, and had multiple chances to win that game.
Lastly, as mentioned above, the Panthers are 6-25 ATS when opponents score 17 or more points against them since 2020. The Flacons have only failed to score less than 17 points once this season. In the first meeting, the Falcons’ collectively rushed for 167 yards without Cordarelle Patterson. Now, he’s back, and the team is coming off a 200-yard rushing performance. That’s not a good sign for a Panthers team that just let a struggling Joe Mixon run wild against them.
FAVORITE PLAYER PROP: Tyler Allgeier OVER 31.5 Rush Yards (-115 DK)
Not sure where this number came from. It is very low. Allgeier has reached at least 32 rushing yards in the last six games. Sure, Patterson was only available in two games during that streak. So, Allgeier has been the feature back for the majority of this current run. However, he’s averaging 11.75 carries and 4.5 yards per carry. If he hits his average carries against the Panthers’ fifth worst run defense in the league, he should easily cover this number.
Favorite Anytime Touchdown Prop: Cordarrelle Patterson (+110 DK)
Despite only being available for only five games, Patterson has found the endzone four out of the five games he’s played in this season. He has five rushing touchdowns so far. At least one Falcons running back has registered a rushing TD or receiving TD in seven out of the nine games this season. Patterson just had two redzone TDs in his return from injury. He’ll likely be a scoring threat again against the Panthers.
Longshot Player Parlay: C. Patterson 50+ Rush Yds, T. Allgeier 50+ Rush Yds, M. Mariota 50+ Rush Yds (+1400 DK)
Patterson, Allgeier, and Mariota are the Falcons’ three top rushers on the season. Patterson and Allgeier are averaging over 50 yard per game. While it’s incredibly unlikely to have three different players reach the 50 yards rushing, Atlanta has accomplished this once this year against the 49ers. The 49ers have the NFL’s best rush defense. If the Falcons do accomplish this feat against the league’s best run defense, they have a shot a doing it against the league 5th worst run defense.
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