Week 6 of Thursday Night Football Prime Picks and Props did not go well. Nonetheless, the grind continues into this week. Once again, TNF features another battle between two struggling teams. The 2-4 New Orleans Saints face the 2-4 Arizona Cardinals.
This is another game that is virtually a pick’em in the eyes of the oddsmakers. On DraftKings, the Cardinals are currently 1.5-point home favorites with the game total sitting at 44.5 points. Arizona is -120 on the moneyline while New Orleans is +100. It’s a tough game to read because both sides desperately need a win to keep their dwindling playoff hopes alive.
In terms of player availability, both teams have plenty of injury concerns. Top Cardinals pass-catcher Marquise Brown is out with a foot injury and guard Cody Ford was put on injured reserve. They also have a plethora of other players listed as questionable. However, they added WR Robby Anderson via trade earlier this week, and WR DeAndre Hopkins will make his season debut after a six-game suspension to start the season.
On the flip side, the Saints have a lot of players with “questionable” designations. Both Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton have been limited participants in practice. Meanwhile, WRs Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry have not practice at all this week. Luckily, it appears rookie receiver Chris Olave is out of concussion protocol and should play.
Notable Stats/Betting Trends
- The UNDER has hit in five out of six Thursday games this year
- The UNDER has hit in five out of Cardinals’ six games
- The OVER has hit in four out the Saints’ six games
- New Orleans is 2-4 ATS and SU/ Arizona is 3-3 ATS
- New Orleans is 0-3 ATS as an underdog / Arizona is 0-1 as a favorite
Prime Picks and Props
The Prime Pick: UNDER 44.5 Points (-110 DK)
For whatever reason, offenses are not performing well on Thursday Night Football. It is really hard to ignore this trend. Yes, the Saints and Cardinals rank in the bottom half of the NFL in fewest points allowed. Meanwhile, the Saints average 23.5 points per game (12th in the NFL) while the Cardinals average 19.0 points per game (22nd in the NFL). However, both offenses have trouble moving the ball down the field consistently, and the injuries compound the issue.
Without James Connor and Marquise Brown, Arizona only scored nine points against the Seahawks’ 31st ranked scoring defense. The addition of Anderson and return of Hopkins should give the offense a boost, but it’s a short week for them to develop solid chemistry with Kyler Murray. Meanwhile, the Saints have two banged up quarterbacks. Both guys haven’t been great fully healthy. So, it’s hard to see either one leading a successful offense when compromised.
BEST GAME PROP: Shortest Touchdown Yards OVER 1.5 (+105 DK)
So long as there isn’t a one-yard touchdown, this bet cashes. The Cardinals have only scored a one-yard touchdown once this season, which was back in Week 2. Meanwhile, the Saints have a one-yard touchdown from running back Latavius Murray, who’s not on the team anymore. Again, these teams don’t methodically move the ball down the field. So, it feels like any touchdown scored in this game will be longer than one yard.
HALFTIME PRIME PICK: Saints 1st Half ML (+100 DK)
The Cardinals are notorious slow starters. They are last in the league in first half scoring; averaging 4.8 points in the first half per game. They are also 0-6 SU on the first half moneyline this season. New Orleans isn’t much better in the first half. They are 2-4 SU on the first half line, but they’re at least averaging 9.0 points per first half. Also, another weird Thursday Night Football quirk is the road team is 3-2-1 SU in the first half. The Saints are definitely worth a look here.
FAVORITE PLAYER PROP: Alvin Kamara OVER 64.5 Rush Yards (-115 DK)
This play is chalky, but that’s okay. While Kamara is still being used as a receiver out of the backfield, he is getting a lot of rush attempts too. Over the past two games, he’s averaging 101 rush yards and 22 carries. That’s more than enough to cover this line. The Cardinals run defense has been good this year; allowing 103.8 rush yards per game. However, they just allowed rookie running back Kenneth Walker III to gash them for 97 rush yards.
LONGSHOT PROP: DeAndre Hopkins First Touchdown Scorer (+750 DK)
As mentioned, the Cardinals start games slow. If Arizona bucks against the that trend, it will be because of DeAndre Hopkins. Last year, Kyler Murray began the season at a MVP pace because of Hopkins. When Hopkins got hurt, Murray’s play suffered and the offense sputtered as a result. With that in mind, it’s likely Hopkins will be targeted early and often. There is slight concern about the Saints scoring a TD first. However, the Saints have only scored the first TD in two out of their six games.