The Week 7 Prime Picks and Props installment did not do well. The Arizona Cardinals and New Orleans Saints matchup turned into a shootout, which went against the predicted game script. Hopefully, the recent stretch of bad luck changes this Thursday as the 4-3 Baltimore Ravens face the 3-4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The past few weeks off Thursday Night Football matchups have featured close spreads. Week 8 is no different. On DraftKings, the Ravens are currently 1.5-point road favorites with the game total sitting at 45 points. Baltimore is -130 on the moneyline while Tampa Bay is +110.
As their records suggest, both these teams have struggled with consistency. The Ravens have alternated wins and losses through seven games. Meanwhile, the Bucs have lost four of their last five games after starting the season 2-0. Plus, both sides coming into this game with a lot of important players on the injury report.
Notable Stats/Betting Trends
- The UNDER is 6-1 in games involving the Bucs / The UNDER is 2-5 in games involving the Ravens
- The UNDER has hit in five out of seven Thursday games this year
- Bucs are 2-5 ATS / Ravens are 3-4 ATS
- The Ravens are 4-2 when listed as a favorite
- The Ravens are 6-0-1 SU in the first half
Prime Picks and Props
The Prime Pick: RAVENS -1 First Half Spread (+110 DK)
The Ravens have been a first half team all season. Again, 6-0-1 SU in the first half is notable. Plus, they are sixth in the NFL with 15 first half points per game while being tied for fifth with 8.6 first half points allowed per game.
On the flip side, the Bucs have trailed at halftime in four of their last five games, which includes back-to-back losses to the Pittsburgh Steelers and Carolina Panthers. Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay offense have been brutal in the first half. The unit is 4th worst in the league with 7.7 first half points per game. There defense is stout, but that hasn’t seemed to matter over the past few weeks. Ultimately, one team is better at starting games than the other.
BEST GAME PROP: BAL Ravens LONGEST FG MADE (+105 DK)
Essentially, this is a Justin Tucker vs Ryan Succop bet. While Tucker is arguably the best kicker in the league, Succop is favored to kick the longer field goal. Succop’s longest field goal has been 44 yards or longer in six out of seven games this season, but only once has he kicked a FG longer than 50 yards. On the flip side, Tucker has made a FG of 51 yards or longer in five out of seven games in 2022. With the Bucs’ defense being as good as it is, Baltimore is likely to get stopped around midfield. That should open up the opportunity for Tucker to nail the longest FG of the night.
FAVORITE PLAYER PROP: Lamar Jackson Under 206.5 Passing Yards (-115 DK)
The 2019 MVP is not throwing the ball for many yards of late. He’s failed to surpass 200 passing yards in three of the past four games. That’s not a good sign heading into a matchup with the Bucs’ defense, which only allows 190.0 passing yards per game (6th Best). Plus, Jackson’s top two targets Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman are dealing with injuries. It’s likely the Ravens will Lamar’s legs and their stable of running backs to control the game as opposed to airing it out.
5-Leg Same Game Parlay (+475 DK)
- Rachaad White 8+ Rec Yds
- Mike Evans OVER 63.5 Rec Yds
- Leonard Fournette UNDER 74.5 Rush Yds
- UNDER 28.5 Tampa Bay Total Points
- Jackson UNDER 219.5 Pass Yards
The game script sets up for the Bucs to throw the ball a lot in order to move the ball down the field. As a result, running back Rachaad White and wide receiver Mike Evans should see enough opportunities to cover their prop numbers. White’s covered this number in his last four games while Evans has covered his number in four of the six games he’s played in.
Meanwhile, Leonard Fournette hasn’t surpassed 75 rushing yards since Week 1. The Bucs have been very pass-dependent because of poor offensive line play. It doesn’t feel like that’ll change very the Ravens defense. Also, the Bucs have only scored 29+ points once this season (31 in Week 4 loss to Kansas City).
Lastly, Jackson has struggled to rack up passing yards. It’s worth taking a number larger than the single game prop because it increases the likelihood he won’t cover more. He has fallen below 220 passing yards in six out of seven games. And again, it’ll be tough for him to air it out against Tampa Bay’s pass defense.
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