Preview Week Four: Green Bay Packers (2-1) vs New England Patriots (1-2)
Series tied at 6-6
Vegas Predictions – Packers -9.5 (40 O/U)
The Green Bay Packers host the New England Patriots Sunday in a battle between one of football’s all time greatest coaches (Belichick) and one of the NFL’s best young coaches (LaFleur). The teams are tied 6-6 in their all time record, having played each other only 12 times since 1973. The most famous of these games was Super Bowl XXXI, where the Brett Favre led Packers defeated Pete Carroll’s Patriots 35-21. The Packers are coming off a hard win down in Tampa Bay The Patriots are fresh off a tough loss to the Baltimore Ravens. This article will serve as the preview to the Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots week four matchup.
Injury Report
(Due to the nature of the publishing schedule, the full injury report will not be available until the weekend, apologies. Stick around and check out the full report Friday evening!)
Packers
Out – OT Caleb Jones (illness)
Questionable – CB Jaire Alexander
Patriots
Out – QB Mac Jones (ankle), OT Yodny Cajuste (thumb), DT Lawrence Guy (shoulder), WR Jakobi Meyers (knee)
Questionable – S Joshuah Bledsoe (groin), S Kyle Dugger (knee), DL Davon Godchaux (back), LB Raekwon Macmillan (thumb), CB Jalen Mils (hamstring), S Adrian Phillips (Ribs)
What to Watch For
Offensive Tackle Rotations
The Packers are easing their Pro Bowl LT David Bakhtiari back into action. In week three, they rotated Bakhtiari and Yosh Nijman at the LT position. Bakhtiari played 56% of snaps while Nijman played 44%. They are playing it safe with Bakhtiari, as the team gave the veteran a day off on Wednesday. Nijman filled in solidly for Bakhtiari while the latter was injured for most of the 2021 season and 2022’s off season.
When asked if the rotation matters in an interview on Wednesday, Aaron Rodgers simply said “no”. Considering the fact that the team cut Bakhtiari’s practice on Thursday and that he is being rotated out shows that the tackle has not fully recovered from his injury. I expect the team to follow the same protocol on Sunday against the Patriots.
Brian Hoyer at Quarterback
Mac Jones suffered an ankle injury last week against the Ravens. The Patriots will start league veteran Brian Hoyer at quarterback until Mac Jones returns, although there is no timetable for that return. Coach LaFleur said on Wednesday’s press conference that he has a lot of respect for Hoyer, while Aaron Rodgers added his own praise, stating that Hoyer was “a good dude, smart, knows schemes.”
Hoyer has started for eight NFL franchises since 2009, second behind Ryan Fitzpatrick. He has also played for the Patriots two times before now. He is familiar with Belichick’s scheme and style of coaching, but he has not had much success as a passer stat-wise or in win total. With their top receiver taking limited practices, I expect the Patriots to lean heavy on the run if Meyers is unable to play.
WR1 For the Packers
As it stands now, the Packers current WR1 is Allen Lazard. He has played in 85% of the team’s offensive snaps. He missed the first week of the regular season and still leads the position group at touchdowns (2). However, rookie Romeo Doubs is coming for that distinction. Doubs averages a 60% snap count on the season so far. His snaps jumped from 37% in week two to 89% in week three. A lot of that had to do with Sammy Watkins missing time. However, Doubs and Lazard are the only receivers on the team to record 80% or higher snaps, which means there is opportunity for Doubs to snatch a higher snap count. Doubs also leads Packers receivers in 20yrd+ plays (3), yards (137), targets (16), catches (14), and target percentage (14%), which indicates how many snaps he has where he gets targeted. Despite Doubs’ success, I expect the Packers to keep Lazard their top receiver option, with Doubs and Watkins splitting WR2 duties.
My Predictions – Packers 31 – Patriots 20
- Aaron Rodgers and the Packers will have their highest offensive output this season. The strong safeties on the Patriots are dealing with injuries. If they are out, I expect LaFleur to exploit that weakness. I expect a lot of runs and throws to the right side. Rodgers will throw three touchdowns while each of the star running backs will get see pay dirt.
- With Mac Jones out and Meyers possibly limited, I predict that the Patriots will rely heavily on the run and short passes. Hoyer has never topped 7.6 yards per pass on 20 or more passes in a season. The Patriots run game is above average in 2022 but in this game I predict them score two touchdowns.
For a Patriots specific week four preview, check out this article by Kevin Perry of Gridiron Heroics!
