The retro red jerseys will be coming out again for the Patriots as they will host the Buffalo Bills in a Thursday night matchup kicking off week 13 in the NFL. With Thursday night football being typically a short week for most teams, both the Patriots and Bills will have a full week of rest after playing on Thanksgiving.
We got that red 𝒇𝒊𝒕.
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) November 28, 2022
After losing out against Minnesota on Thanksgiving night, the Patriots now see themselves on the outside looking in on the AFC playoff picture. As of the end of week 12 the Patriots currently are eighth behind the 7-4 Bengals and Jets. The Patriots do have the tiebreaker over the Jets but remain one game behind them.
Can The Offense Use Last Game To Propel Them Down The Stretch?
The offense finally looked like a well oiled machine with Mac Jones at quarterback, which is what all Patriots fans have been waiting for. The run game was virtually non existent against Minnesota, which has typically been the opposite for most of the season. Jones had a career day throwing for 382 yards and going 28/39. The two touchdowns were what was most impressive about Jones’ performance for me though as he seemed to look confident throwing the ball downfield, even against the seventh best defense in the NFL this season.
On both of his passing touchdowns he seemed to be decisive on making those plays which is what we saw a lot of last season and really none of this year. His play was aided by the performance of the offensive line who really did not start to crack until the end of the game when Minnesota was able to get consistent pressure on Jones. Jones was able to mitigate the pressure by getting rid of the ball early, which the NBC broadcast touched on.
Once the Patriots got down and Jones’ had to extend play the offensive line looked like they were in over their head. I don’t know if there is one true reason but fatigue seemed to play a factor late in the game.
The Patriots should take this with a grain of salt though because out of all the games Jones has played in this season, this is the outlier. I will be more inclined to believe in this passing attack if two things happen. First, Jones is able to be decisive and confident in his ability to throw the ball and not be worried about turning it over, which he has done a good job of since returning from his injury. Secondly, if the offensive line can perform consistently and protect Jones then I cannot see why the offense cannot continue to improve.
How To Attack Buffalo Offensively?
The Bills will come into Thursday night with the 15th ranked total defense in the NFL. The Bills have come down to earth a little bit since dominating the first two months of the season. The first four weeks the Bills did not allow more than three hundred yards of total offense. Since then they have averaged 380.2 yards defensively.
The Rushing attack is going to be crucial again this week as the Bills are 2-2 when allowing one hundred yards or more rushing and 6-1 when allowing less. This is the best way to beat Buffalo because if you keep Josh Allen and the Bills offense off of the field that is the best defense you can have for yourself. The Patriots should employ a steady dose of Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris in this game, which has been the case for most of the season so far.
The Patriots are 5-7 when Jones attempts over thirty passes in a game and 9-4 when he throws for thirty or less. So the formula is simple, yes Jones proved he can throw the ball and not turn it over against a good defense but when you get the running game going it is much easier for the team to win. When playing a high scoring offense like Buffalo this week, the Patriots are going to need to control the ball and keep Josh Allen off the field.
Defensively
Obviously stopping Josh Allen is one of the biggest things the Patriots need to focus on but what Bill Belichick does best is take away your best option, which is Stefon Diggs. Diggs has had one game when he’s gone for over one hundred yards against the Patriots and it was back in December of 2020. Although he has been arguably the best receiver in the NFL this season, he has been able to be slowed down by teams.
Miami and Baltimore were able to slow Diggs down by playing man on him with safety help over the top. The Patriots best man coverage corner is Jonathan Jones, and though he did struggle last week against Justin Jefferson, I expect him to be on Diggs for the majority of the game.
The Bills are 3-3 in one score games this season and undefeated when beating a team by two scores. I do not see this game being a blowout either way so the Patriots need to contain Allen as a runner. Last week the Patriots allowed Jefferson to beat them and they still were in the game till the very end. If the Patriots can keep Allen in the pocket and force him to throw then this game will be closer than what people expect.
Stop Taking Penalties!
The Patriots need to limit their penalties as well. The Patriots are dead last in the NFL with a minus 167 net penalty yards. The closest team to them is the Jets at minus 138. Penalties have cost the Patriots a few games this year and last week it led to the eventual game winning touchdown so limiting the mistakes there is something that needs to be focused on.
Going back to the offense, the false starts and holding calls on the tackles need to end as this is the main problem in that department. The Patriots tried to not get beat last week by having the tackles cut block at times which worked but can only work for so long. In passing situations the offense either need help from the running backs staying in to protect Jones or have the tight ends and backs chip the pass rushers on their way out to their routes.
Game Lines
The Bills are a five point favorite right now which scream Patriots +5. Home underdogs are 32-26-2 this season when covering the points and the Bills are 2-3 on the road covering this season so leaning towards the Patriots +5 might be a good play here. Underdogs have been covering at an alarming rate overall this season so hopefully that trend continues.
The over under is at 43.5 at the moment. Under’s hit about eighty percent of the time when the home team is an underdog so I am for sure betting the under in this game. If the Patriots want any chance of winning they are going to have to hold the Bills to under twenty points. The Bills also seem to have some sort of illness traveling around the team at the moment so it will be interesting to see what happens Thursday.
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