The Patriots are above .500 for the first time this season and will play host to the New York Jets as both teams are coming off the bye into week 11. The Patriots defeated the Indianapolis Colts two weeks ago 26-3 while the Jets defeated the Buffalo Bills 20-17 the last time they played. This game means not only could the Patriots leapfrog the Jets with a win in the division but could also jump past them in the AFC playoff picture.
Patriots Look To Continue Win Streak Over Jets
The Patriots have won an impressive 13 straight games over the Jets dating back to the 2016 season. During this winning streak the Patriots have won all but four games by fourteen or more points while holding the Jets to less than seven points a total of five times.
With last game being decided by less than a touchdown the Jets look to end the longest current winless streak against an opponent in the NFL. Head to head the Patriots look to sweep the Jest for the 23rd time. Even with the Jets trying to tie up the season series the last time the Jets swept the Patriots in a season was back in 2000.
Shaping Up To Be A Defensive Battle
The Jets come in with the number one overall defense, as ranked by Pro Football Focus, with a rating of 85.1. The Jets also rank fourth in pass rush, fifth in rush defense, second in overall coverage defense and secondary pass defense, and twelfth in expected tackles made. Overall head coach Robert Saleh has continued to have one of the best defenses in the NFL just like he had in San Francisco when he was the defensive coordinator there from 2017-2020.
On the other side of the ball the Patriots, again, are one of the top defenses in football. The only deficiency that Patriots have had on defense this season is their run defense that’s due to the mobile quarterbacks they have faced. If you take away the Baltimore and Chicago games the Patriots would have a top ten rushing defense. The Patriots, according to PFF, have the best tackling percentage in the NFL while being in the top eight to twelve range in every other defensive statistic.
Matthew Judon looks to build on his recent performances and not slide like he did last season after New England’s bye week. Judon, who leads the NFL in sacks, looks to set the tone for New England’s rush defense as Zack Wilson is ranked dead last in the NFL when he faces pressure. This could lead to more turnover for New England’s secondary.
The secondary has answered all questions and then some after the speculation in the preseason about their ability. Cornerbacks Jack and Jonathan Jones have been the best cornerback duo in the NFL up to this point in the season. They are by far the best coverage duo in the league, only trailing New York’s Sauce Gardner and Brandin Echols.
The best CBs in single coverage this season 🔒 pic.twitter.com/CIE4MKwDsR
— PFF (@PFF) October 5, 2022
Both teams’ second year quarterbacks have been known to turn the ball over, Jones not so much as of late, but with two of the top defenses going at it I would expect the game to be played at a slower pace. The Patriots will look to continue riding Rhamondre Stevenson and with the return of a fully healthy Damien Harris after the two pronged rushing attack for New England Looks to be the slight edge offensively.
Patriots Offensive Line
With a healthy David Andrews back for New England I expect things to settle down a little bit for the offensive line. I would look to keep an eye on rookie Cole Strange as he has played, in nice terms, not so great since Andrews was injured. He played 38 snaps against the Jets last time and had two penalties while only having six snaps against the Colts and not playing a snap after his penalty in that game. The veteran presence Andrews brings to the offensive lines is something that I believe Strange relies on to help him.
Micheal Onwenu has been far and away the Patriots most consistent and top performing lineman this season. He has the versatility to play as a tackle but has thrived this season playing guard. With an offensive line that has had its highs and mostly lows this season, New England has been able to count on Onwenu this year.
The tackles are the issue for the Patriots. Isaiah Wynn’s performances have seen him getting less and less snaps throughout the season. His nine penalties lead the NFL this season while his counterpart Trent Brown has six penalties. Between the two they have two false starts and thirteen holding calls which just means they are consistently getting beat by pass rushers. With the Jets ability to get after the quarterback these two have to somehow reign it in and protect Mac Jones when the Patriots throw the ball.
The Patriots are -3.5 as of Friday morning, so by Sunday I expect the line to move at least a half point towards the Jets, barring anything crazy happening. The over under is at 38 and I expect this to be a war of attrition between the two teams so I like the under in this game.
Belichick is 14-5 since 2001 off of the bye week but the Patriots are 1-10-1 ATS since 2010 off of the bye. That is something to think of as a bettor. This is shaping up to be a close game and the Jets are going to put up a fight for sure as their playoff lives are at stake in this game.
This will be the first of three games in twelve days for the Patriots so this is a must win in my opinion. This can catapult the Patriots into a more secure playoff spot and if they lose the next two games are against two of the top five teams in the league.
Week 12: @ MIN (Thanksgiving Night)
Week 13: vs. BUF (TNF)
Week 14: @ ARZ (MNF)
Week 15: @ LV (SNF)
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) November 17, 2022
The Patriots were 9-4 heading into the bye as the number one team in the AFC, they went 1-4 after the bye week. Two years ago they were 2-2 before the bye and finished 5-7 after the bye week. They were 8-1 before the bye in 2019 and 4-4 after the bye. Since 2018 the Patriots have been worse after the bye and I pray that trend changes. Do I realistically think it will happen, no.
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