If the Panthers win their last three games, they win the NFC South at 8-9. If they beat the Buccaneers in week 17 and finish with the same record as them, Carolina wins the NFC South. With Detroit and New Orleans sandwiching the Bucs, the Panthers still control their own destiny, somehow, at 5-9.
However, the red-hot Detroit Lions, which seems like an antithetical statement, could derail their season on Saturday before their final two divisional matchups. Determined to stomp out the Panthers’ playoffs chances, and increase their own, the Lions have won six of their last seven games, including one against the 11-3 Vikings.
All three of these games are a must-win for Carolina, but the Lions and Bucs are the immediate hurdles. If they win the division, it’ll be the second time in franchise history where they achieved that with a sub-.500 record. Here’s how the Panthers can beat the surging Lions and befuddled Buccaneers to become NFC South champs.
Lions: Get the ball outside quickly
The Lions blitz at a 31.6% rate, good for sixth in the league. They also have the fourth-least missed tackles in the NFL and hurry the QB 10.1% of the time, good for second in the league.
This Detroit defense is no joke. This isn’t the Lions of old. Dan Campbell has officially ushered in a new era in Ford Field. After starting 1-6, the Lions are a half-game out of the wildcard and have shown no signs of slowing down. It will take a meticulous game plan from interim head coach Steve Wilks to puncture a vicious defensive front.
Carolina won’t be able to run all over the Lions like it has many teams under Wilks. Just last week, the Steelers completely shut down the Panthers’ rush attack, holding them to 21 yards on 16 carries and lead back D’onta Foreman to 0.9 yards per carry.
However, Sam Darnold picked up the slack with a 225-yard performance on 14-of-23 passing. Carolina will need to get the ball out to their playmakers quickly to have any chance in this game. Smash mouth football can work on the outside too, if they create enough confusion to get the ball out in space.
Pre-snap motion has become a staple of the offense for Caolina, and they will need to highlight that use against Detroit. Jet sweeps and outside screens should be a major part of the offense, along with outside zone runs and pitches. This will help get Carolina’s playmakers into space and help Darnold continue his no turnover streak.
The line of scrimmage is often crowded, as the Lions either bring or tease constant pressure. Wilks should use that spacing to his advantage so Carolina can put up some points, because the Lions certainly will.
Bucs: Win the line of scrimmage on both sides
The Buccaneers rank 30th in team run block win rate. Their offensive line has taken a massive step back, while Carolina’s has taken an equally big one forward. Despite last week’s disappointing ground performance, Carolina’s big men up front rank ninth in adjusted line yards, according to Football Outsiders.
Tampa Bay ranks 22nd in adjusted line yards, a leading cause of their offensive woes.
Carolina needs to put pressure on Brady without bringing too many blitzes, confusing the Brady and the big men by crowding the line of scrimmage. That will discourage an already-poor run game from the Bucs this season and force them to throw at Carolina’s quick, young secondary. Leonard Fornette has been injured and seen decreased snaps in favor of rookie Rachaad White.
Earlier this season, the Panthers beat the Bucs 21-3, holding them to 46 rushing yards while racking up 173 of their own. Wilks clearly feels the secondary can hold up in man coverage, so they can afford to disguise coverages and give up some positioning to freeze Brady and stuff the run.
D’onta Foreman averaged 7.9 yards per carry on a 118-yard day but wasn’t one of the three touchdown scorers. Carolina will need to replicate that play calling diversity to succeed against the likes of Carlton Davis and Devin White, the two bright spots during an abysmal defensive season for Tampa.
If Carolina comes out on top these next two weeks, they will likely be headed to the playoffs in Bank of America Stadium.
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